How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?

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How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?
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UK betting sites believe Rishi Sunak has such a slim chance of being prime minister after the next general election, that Penny Mordaunt is now the frontrunner for the Conservative party.

Mr Sunak is battling to keep his job before voters even head to the ballot boxes amid rumblings of a Tory rebellion. His MPs are fearful for their jobs following the government’s inability to improve their 20% poll ratings. 

Labour continue to poll around 45 points, while the surge in support for Reform UK has dragged further voters away from the Conservatives.

The bookies have placed Mr Sunak as the outsider to win the next election, ever since he replaced Liz Truss in the autumn of 2022.

However, never have they placed a fellow Tory – one who is not even prime minister – ahead of him in the betting on who will be the next PM.

Of course, Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer continues to dominate the market and he is expected to be elected into No 10. 

Political betting sites still can’t figure out when Mr Sunak will lose his job, however, and that is now the area punters are trying to take advantage of.

Rishi Sunak Odds

According to Unibet, Mr Sunak is 13/2 to be prime minister after the next election. By contrast, Sir Keir is 1/5 and another bookie has Ms Mordaunt ahead of the incumbent PM at 6/1.

Ms Mordaunt’s odds reveal just how little faith the bookies have in Mr Sunak turning his fortunes around. Not only is he on course to lose the next election, they reckon he might lose his job before that.

Exactly when Mr Sunak walks is the tricky question, but the bookmakers have him at 4/5 to go in 2024. That seems obvious, via either the electorate or the will of his own MPs.

The Conservatives have ousted their last three prime ministers and the one before that – David Cameron – quit after the Brexit referendum. 

Since then, the party has swallowed up Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Mr Sunak appears to be next in line.

Punters aren’t interested in backing him. While a third of all bets back Sir Keir to be prime minister after the next election, more people reckon Mr Johnson has a better chance of strolling into No 10 than Mr Sunak.

Interestingly, there hasn’t been a big push yet on Ms Mordaunt. Her odds have fallen because betting apps expect a flurry to come. 

Bettors are holding off for now but she could well make her move.

UK General Election Odds
Best Odds
% Chance
Labour Party
87.49%
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No Overall Majority
15.38%
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Conservative Party
6.67%
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Can Sunak Win The Election?

Many within the Tory party fear Mr Sunak is sleepwalking the party into oblivion. Lee Anderson quit to join Reform UK, who YouGov claim are now just four polling points off the Conservatives, and more could follow.

Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Ms Truss have no issue flirting with the right of the party. Ms Mordaunt is more of a centrist, but is just as big a threat to Mr Sunak’s position as anyone else.

The problem for Mr Sunak is, he’s fighting on two fronts. Any policy that Labour support is immediately ridiculed by the right of his party and Reform. Introduce hard-right wing policies to appease his rebels and he loses centrist support.

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The Conservative polling figures fell from 32% to 22% after Ms Truss’ disastrous mini budget. Mr Sunak, the former chancellor and ex-banker, was thrown into No 10 to save the economy. 

The ship has steadied over the past 18 months, but inflation continues to rage and food prices are eye-wateringly high. Voters want change.

The demand for a fresh government is one of the reasons Reform have done so well recently. Many Conservative voters aren’t keen on Labour, but will back a right-wing rebel party.

Reform’s emergence has come not at the cost of Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens, but purely the Conservatives.

Mr Sunak is yet to confirm the date of the next election, but it won’t be May 2, when the local elections take place. Suffer a major defeat here and there will be calls for him to walk.

However, it might also be too late by that point. Coral price an October election as the most likely outcome at 10/11. Whether Mr Sunak will be there to fight it remains to be seen.