Second Referendum Odds Shorten After Latest Brexit Twist

Second Referendum Odds Shorten After Latest Brexit Twist

A second referendum on Brexit looks increasingly likely and bookmakers have slashed their odds on another vote in the light of developments this week.

The UK skipped on their previously agreed March 29 leave date, instead settling on an extension to try and avoid a 'No Deal'.

Prime Minister Theresa May has until April 12 to settle on a deal with the European Union but is struggling to get anything through Parliament.

Monday saw a fresh round of indicative votes lead to nothing, while Tuesday had Mrs May hold talks with her Conservative cabinet for seven hours to try and break the deadlock.

The Prime Minister’s acceptance that the Tories cannot do this alone saw her reach out to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to thrash out an agreement.

Mrs May said on Tuesday: “The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a future relationship that delivers on the result of the referendum, that both the Leader of the Opposition and I could put to the House for approval and which I could then take to next week's European Council.”

But this move has seen the Brexit betting odds reshuffle and that’s because of Labour’s stance — albeit shaky and never completely defined — on a second referendum.

BetVictor has seen their odds on a second referendum come in from 9/4 to 15/8 within a week. That comes as the odds on no second referendum move from 4/11 to 2/5.

Will There Be a Second Referendum?

An estimated one million people marched through London calling for a second referendum last month — dubbed the ‘People’s Vote’.

Labour has warmed to the idea of a second referendum in recent weeks as a means of overcoming the deadlock. But cynics claim Jeremy Corbyn is trying to have his cake and eat it by offering a referendum that passes the buck back onto the people.

Labour MPs did vote in favour of triggering Article 50 with the majority of Parliament in 2017, which set in motion the UK’s exit from the EU. And while many claim a second referendum is needed once we know what Brexit would actually look like, there are still plenty of Labour voters who want to leave.

Corbyn and May will likely discuss ideas of a customs union with the EU, as well as the Northern Ireland border and immigration. But right now it’s tough to know where the coin will fall.

Remember, Corbyn’s ultimate aim is to force a general election.

Now there is genuine opinion that a second referendum on the UK leaving the EU is possible. And that is affecting the odds.

Latest Brexit Odds

Potential OutcomeOddsBookmakerImplied Probability
2nd Referendum15/8BetVictor34.8%
Article 50 to be Revoked5/2Unibet28.6%
No Deal Brexit3/1Paddy Power25%
2nd Referendum Result - Remain2/1Betfair33.3%

The latest Brexit betting odds are fluctuating rapidly and punters will likely see changes once again this week when we know more about Mrs May’s next steps.

Coral have a No Overall Majority at the next general election priced at evens, with the Tories (7/4) ahead of Labour (4/1). The bookmaker has also priced a general election in 2019 at evens, with June 2019 currently marked at 5/1.

Meanwhile 10bet have Boris Johnson priced as favourite to be the next Conservative leader. He is 15/4 to replace Theresa May, who has already confirmed she will step down as PM when the first round of EU negotiations are finally over.

Michael Gove (9/2) is also in the running, with Jeremy Hunt at 13/2. The shortest-priced woman is Andrea Leadsom at 20/1.

What the EU Think

While all this is going on in Westminster, the EU watch on with patience. They have red lines that will not be crossed and are arguably the stronger party in these debates.

France’s president Emmanuel Macron says the UK has three options: a second referendum, an election, or alternative proposals for the future relationship such as a customs union.

Ireland’s Taoiseach Leo Varadkar appears exasperated, having told reporters in Paris: "We gave the UK some time, some space and some opportunity to come up with a way forward... [but] as things stand, they will leave on 12 April without a deal."

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