Serena Williams & Novak Djokovic Favorites for Indian Wells
It's been nearly two decades since Serena Williams claimed her last Indian Wells championship. Despite this, she enters the BNP Paribas Indian Wells tournament as the favorite for female competitors at +450 (18.2%).
Novak Djokovic enters as the favorite for men at +100 (50%).
Serena's History at Indian Wells
Williams' history at this event has seen its ups and downs, winning two championships in three final appearances.
She's also boycotted the event with her sister for over 10 years, a large reason as to why her last trophy at the California event was in 2001.
Serena and her sister, Venus, were scheduled to face each other in a 2001 semifinals match. Venus withdrew due to an injury, prompting many fans to boo Serena during her championship match.
Sister, Sister 🤩
— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 4, 2019
Welcome back, @serenawilliams
& @Venuseswilliams...#BNPPO19 pic.twitter.com/j0ro2MOsen
Despite the rollercoaster of events Serena has seen at Indian Wells, her odds to win this year's tournament stands around 20 percent which is the highest of any female player.
Should Serena Be Favored?
Serena saw a 2016 final appearance at Indian Wells but fell short to Victoria Azarenka.
The victory was Azarenka's second Indian Wells trophy, the only female to win the tournament twice since it became a WTA Premier Mandatory event.
Serena may not be a bad choice to win this event for many tennis bettors, as she has won seven of her last eight matches.
Williams won seven straight matches before finally losing to Karolina Pliskova in the Australian Open quarterfinals.
In those seven matches won, Serena only dropped two total sets.
Although Serena is the favorite for women, there are many other female competitors that can claim Indian Wells.
As the odds show on top online betting sites, this is an era of a very deep class of female tennis players.
2019 Indian Wells Female Favorites
| Player | Country | American Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serena Williams | United States | +450 | 18.2% |
| Petra Kvitova | Czech Republic | +600 | 14.3% |
| Simona Halep | Romania | +700 | 12.5% |
| Naomi Osaka | Japan | +700 | 12.5% |
| Elina Svitolina | Ukraine | +900 | 10% |
| Karolina Pliskova | Czech Republic | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Sloane Stephens | United States | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Angelique Kerber | Germany | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Belarus | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Madison Keys | United States | +1700 | 5.6% |
Petra Kvitova has the second-best odds to win, although she is coming off a loss to Belinda Bencic.
Actually, many of the top favored females are coming off a loss to Bencic.
Late Bloom Bencic?
Bencic just won the Dubai Duty Free championship in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), taking out four of the top nine favorites at Indian Wells.
Bencic defeated Kvitova, Halep, Sabalenka, and Svitolina - all entering with better odds than Bencic.
Currently, Bencic's odds to win the Indian Wells tournament sit at +4000 (2.4%).
Pliskova and Halep may look like solid picks too, as both women have a good chance to win.
However, Pliskova is just 3-3 after her big Australian Open win over Serena Williams while Halep is just 2-2 in her last four matches.
Naomi Osaka may also be worth a look, winning the Australian Open but losing her last match against Kiki Mladenovic without winning a set. Osaka won Indian Wells last year.
2019 Indian Wells Male Favorites
| Player | Country | American Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | Serbia | +100 | 50% |
| Roger Federer | Switzerland | +500 | 16.7% |
| Rafael Nadal | Spain | +500 | 16.7% |
| Alexander Zverev | Germany | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Nick Kyrgios | Australia | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Marin Cilic | Croatia | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Greece | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Milos Raonic | Canada | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Stan Wawrinka | Switzerland | +3000 | 3.2% |
| John Isner | United States | +33000 | 2.9% |
Djokovic enters as the favorite for men competitors, looking for a record sixth Indian Wells trophy.
He is currently tied for the most Indian Wells' championships at five.
Who is he tied with?
Federer a Favorite
Nonother than Roger Federer, who enters tied with the second-best odds with Rafael Nadal.
Federer was in last year's Indian Wells final, losing to Juan Martin del Potro who is out of this year's contest.
Roger has been to four Indian Wells finals in the last five years, losing three of those matches.
Two of those three losses have come at the hands of Novak Djokovic, who Federer has never beaten in an Indian Wells title game.
Federer's odds may be better than many think, even with the second-best odds.
He has won five matches in a row, including a Dubai Duty Free trophy that saw Federer win three straight matches without dropping a set.
Century maker. History maker.
— ATP Tour (@ATP_Tour) March 2, 2019
100 for @rogerfederer. #RF100 pic.twitter.com/5SyMFc1u4w
The win marked Federer's 100th ATP championship, becoming only the second player to reach that feat. It also marked his second ATP title in 2019 out of only three tournaments played so far.
Nadal's similar odds with Federer is a bit surprising, as Nadal has dropped two of his last three matches.
Kyrgios Kicking In?
Nadal lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open final before bowing out of Acapulco to Nick Kyrgios.
Speaking of Kyrgios, the charismatic star from Australia is a current buzzsaw. Just as the 2019 season was looking grim for Kyrgios, he wins himself an ATP trophy.
Kygrios defeated Nadal, Andreas Seppi, Stan Wawrinka, John Isner, and Alexander Zverev to capture the Acapulco championship this past week.
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