Super Bowl 2019 Point Spread Update – Where is the Line Now?

Super Bowl 2019 Point Spread Update – Where is the Line Now?

The Super Bowl is America’s most watched television event year after year largely due to commercials, halftime shows and a multitude of other off-field entertainment options. For football fans, the game is the pinnacle of the entire NFL season.

Even better, this year’s game is shaping up to be one of the best ever – at least in the eyes of bookmakers.

Heading into Super Bowl weekend, most books have this game among the closest lines in more than 50 years of Big Game history. Here’s a breakdown of how bookies have forecasted the matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots.

Spread Holds Steady After Quick Early Moves

A fortuitous run of close, exciting games in recent years has made the Super Bowl more popular than ever, but in reality many Super Bowls have seen lopsided scores on the field and equally stacked lines from Las Vegas. The average point spread at game time has been nearly seven points.

That’s not the case for Super Bowl LIII.

Even if the line shifts in the hours immediately before the game, it will be nowhere close to one of the most lopsided spreads in Super Bowl history. New England has held steady as -2.5 favorite at nearly all sportsbooks.

That line could shift, as nearly three quarters of all bets have been on the Patriots, already leading some bookmakers to push the line up to New England -3. Future movements are possible in the hours leading up to kickoff, especially if there’s an unexpected injury or other development involving a key player.

Even with a quiet two week build up before the game, Patriots bettors had already caused a major shift in early action.

Most bookmakers opened the game as a pick ‘em or even with the Rams as slight favorites. A flurry of action within the first few hours after the line was posted shot the line all the way to New England -2.5, which has pretty much held steady since the day after the NFC and AFC Championship games.

If that line holds, it will be one of the narrowest lines in Super Bowl history.

Only three games have had a more narrow consensus spread at kickoff. The closest (and closest line possible) was a pick ‘em in Super Bowl XLIX between New England and the Seattle Seahawks.

Two other games opened with a team favored by a single point: Super Bowl VII, when the undefeated Miami Dolphins opened as one-point favorites over the Washington Redskins, and Super Bowl XVI, when the San Francisco 49ers were one point better than the Cincinnati Bengals in the eyes of bookmakers.

Total Sets Early Records

This year’s total has already marked a Super Bowl record.

Bookmakers opened the over/under at 58.5 points, the most ever for a Super Bowl. This year’s matchup of two top-five scoring offenses compelled oddsmakers to eclipse the previous record of 57 points, which occurred ahead of both Super Bowl XLIV and LI.

Like this year’s matchup, both games featured duels between some of the best quarterbacks in the game.

Super Bowl XLIV was highlighted by two quarterbacks that would eventually become the top-two passers in league history: Peyton Manning of Indianapolis against New Orleans and their own superstar in Drew Brees. Seven years later, MVP single caller Matt Ryan and his Atlanta team squared off against Tom Brady’s New England squad.

Brady will line up under center in the Big Game for a record ninth time in Super Bowl LIII, opposing the Rams’ third-year pro Jared Goff, who is already manufacturing an impressive resume in a comparatively short career.

Heavy early action moved the total down to 58 points within the first few hours, and continued money on the under has caused the total to drop as low as 56.5 or even 56 at many sportsbooks.

That lower total is still among the handful of highest ever, setting up what Las Vegas views as a high-scoring affair on Sunday.

What to Expect on Super Sunday

Obviously no one knows what will happen Super Sunday, but professional bookmakers seem pretty confident it will be a close, high-scoring game.

It’s important to note the favored Patriots are far from a lock. In 52 previous Super Bowls, the underdog has covered 24 times and pushed twice. Though most bettors like New England, many expect Los Angeles to provide a tough challenge.

Perhaps the most interesting matchup will be between the offensive game plan of Rams’ head coach Sean McVay against Bill Belichick’s notoriously multifaceted defense. Some NFL expert believe the key will come down to the Patriot’s ability to stop Todd Gurley and the Los Angeles run game.

That back-and-forth should be the most compelling storyline in a fascinating Super Bowl full of them. That’s much of the reason why this game remains so hard to predict for fans -and bettors- on both teams.

There’s probably even less concrete predictions for those bettors who prefer the off-field betting action on prop bets as varied as the length of the National Anthem or the color of Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, though that’s not for lack of options.

No matter what the outcome, all these elements during and surrounding the Big Game set up for what should be a record-setting Sunday, even if the game itself doesn’t meet bookmakers’ lofty expectations.

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