The Odds on a White Christmas in 2018 are Surprisingly Short

The Odds on a White Christmas in 2018 are Surprisingly Short

There is just as much chance of snow on Christmas day in the north of England as there is of the 2018 X-Factor winner being number one in the charts on December 25, 2018.

According to leading bookmaker William Hill, the major cities in the north of England – namely Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester – each have a 5/1 chance of a much-coveted White Christmas.

To put those odds into perspective, that’s the same probability of this year’s winner of X-Factor – the 15th edition of the popular ITV talent show – topping the UK singles charts on Christmas Day, as has been the case in seven of the last 14 years.

The last White Christmas in the UK was in 2010, with the Met Office having a record of snow on the ground in 83 per cent of Britain, while 19% of the UK weather stations recorded snowflakes on December 25 that year.

White Christmas Betting Explained

However, in White Christmas betting terms, most bookmakers state that snow must fall at any time during the 24-hour period of Christmas day for any bet to be a winner.

At William Hill, for example, the result of a White Christmas bet is determined by the British Weather Services – the UK’s longest established independent weather company – who do not consider snow already lying on the ground as a White Christmas.

Therefore, winnings will only be paid out should at least one snowflake fall within that 24-hour window in a bettor’s location of choice.

The south of England, where temperatures are generally warmer, has a weaker chance of a White Christmas, with Birmingham (6/1), Bristol (6/1) and London (8/1) all less likely to see snow than the aforementioned northern cities.

Naturally, the further up north in the British Isles, the more chance there is of snow on December 25.

White Christmas in Scotland?

Paddy Power make it more likely for Glasgow to have a White Christmas (3/1) this year than for Rangers to win the 2018/19 Scottish Premiership (4/1), no doubt a source of amusement for fans of bitter neighbours Celtic.

Other major cities in Scotland also have a reasonable chance of snow on December 25 with Aberdeen and Edinburgh each given a 3/1 chance as well.

Away from Mainland UK, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offer 6/1 on Dublin seeing snow on Christmas day, while up north in Belfast it’s 5/1 for a White Christmas.

As for X-Factor, the last winner of the show to have a Christmas number one was Ben Haenow with ‘Something I Need’ in 2014.

In X-Factor betting markets, this year’s favourite to win the talent show is Dalton Harris (13/10), followed by Shan Ako (3/1), and the latter is 8/1 to be number one in the UK charts on Christmas day.

Chance of Snow on Christmas Day 2018

London – 25%

Dublin – 25%

Paris – 50%

Madrid – 50%

Istanbul – 25%

New York – 50%

Shanghai – 25%

Tokyo – 50%

Cape Town – 0%

Abu Dhabi – 0%

Source: Percentages above accurate on October 31, 2018. Click here for an update on your specific location.

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