Trump Betting Specials Expose Instability As Election Looms
Donald Trump’s chances of securing a second term as president of the United States have taken a nosedive in recent weeks and it could get even worse for the 73-year-old.
The coronavirus outbreak, a huge spike in unemployment and widespread protests in relation to racial inequality have severely impacted on the president.
This week, for the first time in the 2020 US Presidential Election battle, Joe Biden – Trump’s main rival for the White House – drew level with the incumbent to win the November vote.
And trends in the US politics betting markets suggest the situation for Trump is getting worse. Here are four markets that reflect what’s happening.
Trump Less Likely To Be Re-Elected
The betting data for bookmaker Coral shows Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 election have shifted from 10/11 in March to a current price of 11/10.
The drift reflects a trend, with Biden now odds-on (10/11) to become President – the first time the prospective Democratic nominee has tipped over Evens.
Trump Popular Vote Odds Shift
Meanwhile, Trump’s odds on him winning 50 per cent of the vote are drifting too. When the businessman beat Hilary Clinton in 2016 he did so despite his rival earning almost 2.9million more votes. As is the electoral college system in the United States, Trump still won.
The odds on him failing to win the popular vote have moved out from 11/4 to a new price of 3/1 with Ladbrokes. The shift reflects a groundswell in the opinion polls, with Biden (+49.9) boasting a comfortable 7.8-point advantage over Trump (+42.1).
Trump To Miss 2020 Election?
Whether or not Trump will even make it to the 2020 election is a question many punters are asking. Collected betting data from Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfair shows almost 24 per cent of Trump bets back him NOT to be the Republican candidate come November.
At a price of 8/1 and drifting, it appears unlikely that Trump will avoid a mutiny from within his own party this close to the election. But if the recent troubles that have affected America continue into the summer, this market may witness further fluctuations.
Could 2020 Election Be Cancelled?
Finally, betting data suggests an increasing number of punters are backing the election to be scrapped in 2020.
Trump dismissed claims he could look to knock back the election into 2021 due to the coronavirus outbreak when the disease was beginning to spread in the United States. At the start of June he spontaneously tweeted ‘NOVEMBER 3RD’ – seemingly in a bid to remind his supporters that an election is looming.
Yet over 15 per cent of punters betting on Trump specials are backing the election to be postponed into the New Year. The market has dropped from 10/1 to 6/1 this week, even though legally even though legally a US election postponement would be tricky to say the least.
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