US-UK Trade Deal Odds Hit After Pelosi Damns Brexit Process
The UK’s hopes of securing a trade deal with the USA before 2020 have hit rock bottom after the government’s latest dealings over Brexit triggered a critical response in Washington.
PM Boris Johnson is seeking to secure trade agreements with a number of global nations to make up for the impending No Deal situation with the European Union.
Brexit means the UK could be left without a deal with its closest neighbours, and Johnson’s ministers are working on landing agreements with the likes of Australia, India, Canada and the USA.
A deal has already been struck with Japan, with the aim of boosting trade with the Pacific nation by £15bn.
But the latest UK politics betting odds suggest a deal with the world’s biggest economy – the United States – won’t be happening any time soon.
Pelosi Warning Rocks Odds
Indeed, what were already fragile talks between the UK and US over securing a deal in time for Christmas appear to have been scuppered after House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned Johnson’s government over its international obligations regarding the Good Friday Agreement.
And this is all to do with Brexit. The Conservatives are pushing through a Bill that will give the UK government authority to override parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, should No Deal be reached by the end of the year.
If this happens, there are fears the UK could create its own customs arrangements that would be unpalatable for the EU and result in a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. There has not been border infrastructure on the island of Ireland since 2005.
Congresswoman Pelosi said that should a No Deal Brexit result in the UK “violating” the Good Friday Agreement then “there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress”.
Her warning triggered a plunge in the politics betting exchange odds, with the odds that a UK-US trade deal not being signed in 2020 now sitting at 1/33, a 97.1% probability.
Chlorinated Chicken Stuck in Lords
Not only is the UK’s reputation at stake over the internal markets bills, but Johnson also faces a challenge to get any deal with the USA through the House of Lords.
Peers are set to call for the creation of a new advisory body, so that a future US trade agreement doesn’t affect the UK’s current food and animal welfare standards.
This has been a bone of contention for the government since the high-profile report that the US would be keen to sell chlorinated chicken to UK markets.
Whether Johnson’s ministers can turn the tide and strike a deal with the US before the end of the year remains to be seen. But the new odds indicate a remarkable turn of events and yet another headache for a government keen to end the Brexit process once and for all.
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