Will Donald Trump See Odds & Polls Boost After Covid Recovery?

Will Donald Trump See Odds & Polls Boost After Covid Recovery?
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Donald Trump has returned to the White House after spending three days in hospital being treated for coronavirus – and political betting markets on the president are back up and running as the US election looms.

Trump’s admission to hospital on Friday caused UK bookmakers to temporarily suspend 2020 US election betting.

A full shut-down of the markets continued while he remained at Walter Reed hospital, where the president is said to have taken steroid treatment as his oxygen levels dropped.

The 74-year-old was back at the White House three days later, however, and his US election campaign team swiftly released a video montage of him saluting his helicopter on the lawns of the presidential home.

And Trump’s short stint in hospital has caused the US election betting odds to wobble upon their reinstatement.

Trump Odds Widen

Before betting was suspended Trump was 7/5 to beat Joe Biden in the November 3 vote. That reflected a 41% chance of him winning this autumn, which roughly reflects recent US election polling.

However, once the markets reopened after Trump returned to the White House, his price increased to 7/4. Those odds have since come in to settle at 6/4, which is roughly a single percentage change from his pre-Covid chances of winning the election.

The fluctuation but eventual settling of Trump’s election price suggests bettors are not treating his health as particularly problematic heading into the final few weeks of campaigning.



Indeed, there is cause to believe the president could even receive a polling boost after his stint in hospital.

When UK prime minister Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital with Covid-like symptoms, his approval rating was languishing around 46%. But when the news that Johnson could have died from the severity of the disease, his ratings shot up to 66%.

The PM returned with renewed vigour and bullishness, and carried that popularity through until the summer, where the population eventually turned on the Conservative leader. Right now, only 35% of people believe Johnson is doing well running the country, while 57% say he’s doing badly.

Can Trump Expect Boost?

The Boris Bounce from Covid may be something Trump’s campaign team are hoping to receive in the final few weeks of US election campaigning.

As the polls show, this bounce doesn’t last long but it could be enough to steer the president through to polling day if the American public sympathise with his plight.

However, some analysts aren’t expecting Trump to receive the similar gift of a ratings boost. Instead, the president may have to do the hard work himself, with two debates against Biden remaining and a host of campaign rallies booked.

Whether or not Trump can fight off the lingering effects of Covid-19 and pull back into the election race remains to be seen. But bookmakers for now see no reason to dramatically change their price.

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