The NBA Finals culminate a two-month long playoff season after an 82-game regular season. Unlike in most other major American sports leagues like the NFL or MLB, the National Basketball Association typically holds form with fewer surprises making it a favourite among top betting markets the world over.
The overwhelming majority of NBA champions – more than 70 percent – have been No. 1 seeds, meaning they had the best record in their respective conference. Longshots rarely appear in NBA Finals, let alone win them. Still, the best-of-7 series does provide ample action for those interested in betting the NBA or really just basketball betting in general.
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The NBA is split into two 15-team conferences, the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference, with 29 teams located in the United States and one in Canada. The top eight teams in each conference make the playoffs and are seeded 1 through 8, creating a bracket. Teams advance along that bracket and are not reseeded. Therefore in the conference semifinals, the winner of the 1-8 matchup meets the 4-5 winner, and the 2-7 winner meets the 3-6 winner.
Beginning with the 2015-16 season, the NBA began seeding its playoff teams by overall records within each conference rather than by rewarding division winners. Previously, the division winners received the top three seeds, even if a non-division winner had a better record than one of the division winners.
All rounds are best-of-7 series, with the team with the better record hosting Games 1, 2, 5 and 7. In the NBA Finals, the conference champion with the better record gets home-court advantage.
Much like during the regular season, sports books use a point-spread system to predict the winner of each contest and the margin of victory. Bookmakers also establish an over/under for how many points will be scored by both teams combined and whether or not the number will be higher (over) or lower (under).
For example, if Golden State is favoured over Cleveland by 12 points and it’s expected to be a high scoring game, Golden State’s odds would look like this: GS -12.0, 215. Cleveland’s odds would look like this: CLE +12.0, 215. To cover the spread, Golden State would need to win by more than 12 points. To beat the spread, Cleveland would need to win the game or lose by less than 12 points.
Bettors can also wager money lines, both on individual games and the series as a whole.
Money lines are based on positive and negative figures and indicate how much money a better must wager to win NZ$100 or how much a NZ$100 bet would win. Negative numbers indicate how much you must bet to win NZ$100. For example, if Golden State has a money line of -1200 it means you must bet NZ$1200 to win NZ$100.
Positive numbers indicate how much you'd win from a NZ$100 bet. So if Cleveland has a money line of +350, it would mean a win of NZ$350 on a NZ$100 bet.
Sports books also offer the opportunity to bet on who will be leading after each quarter, at halftime and through three quarters with the opportunity to do in-play betting as well. Bettors will also have a host of prop bet options.
The rise of so-called "superteams" in the NBA (squads with three or more stars) has led to fairly predictable results in the NBA Finals. From 2013-2018, in every season but one a No. 1 seed or betting favourite has won the NBA title.
The only season that a No. 1 seed didn’t win during that span was 2017-2018, when the Warriors battled injuries during the regular season and finished as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. They were still -1075 to beat the Cavaliers, which they did.
The only underdog during that span to win the title was Cleveland (+180) in the 2015-2016 season. That Cavaliers team also was the only squad to ever win an NBA Finals after trailing 3 games to 1.
Through the 2017-18 season, only seven third seeds, one fourth seed and one sixth seed have won the title. No five, seven or eight seeds have ever done so.
There are lots of prop bet options during the NBA Finals, both for the series and individual games. Bettors can also wager on who will win the Most Valuable Player award.
For example, some of the team prop bets for the 2018 NBA Finals included will there be a game-winning shot at the buzzer, an ejection or a suspension? What will be the highest margin of victory? Will there be an overtime game? Will the series go four, five, six or seven games?
There are typically prop bets on most major players’ scoring, assists and/or rebounds, as well as head-to-head proposition between opposing players.
Among the interesting individual prop bets in the 2018 NBA Finals included will LeBron James average a triple-double (10 or more points, 10 or more rebounds and 10 or more assists) and Kevin Durant’s three-point field-goal percentage.
When betting the length of the series, keep in mind that four-game sweeps are atypical – occurring in just nine in the first 72 NBA Finals – while the most common series length has been six games (26 of 72). Five- and seven-game series happen with roughly the same frequency, each about 25 percent of the time.
| Year | Winning Team | Winner’s Odds | Series | Losing Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Golden State Warriors | -1075 | 4-0 | Cleveland Cavaliers |
| 2017 | Golden State Warriors | -300 | 4-1 | Cleveland Cavaliers |
| 2016 | Cleveland Cavaliers | +180 | 4-3 | Golden State Warriors |
| 2015 | Golden State Warriors | -220 | 4-2 | Cleveland Cavaliers |
| 2014 | San Antonio Spurs | -155 | 4-1 | Miami Heat |
| 2013 | Miami Heat | -220 | 4-3 | San Antonio Spurs |
| 2012 | Miami Heat | +155 | 4-1 | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 2011 | Dallas Mavericks | +155 | 4-2 | Miami Heat |
| 2010 | Los Angeles Lakers | -190 | 4-3 | Boston Celtics |
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