Arkle Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 1st, 2020

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BEST 2020 ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

• Won last time out
• Rated 151+
• No more than 4 chase starts
• Last ran no more than 75 days ago
• Aged between six and eight

Betting On 2020 Arkle Novices' Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Arkle Novices' Chase.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 Arkle Novices' Chases, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of the first chase of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, just as they did last year when highlighting Duc Des Genievres.

Scroll down to find out more about how the trends found him, and details of all the other Ankle Novices' Chase trends beyond the top five.

Get the latest Arkle Novices' Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Arkle Novices' Chase?

On the trends last year, only Duc Des Genievres, Us And Them and Paloma Blue made the Arkle Novices' Chase shortlist, with Duc Des Genievres going on to record a first Cheltenham Festival win by 13 lengths.

The Willie Mullins-trained star quietly stood out on trends ticking all the 'Top 5' trends with his commanding Gowran Park beginners' chase win last time out.

More importantly, he had been fifth at the Cheltenham Festival over hurdles a year earlier and was lining up fit, but not over-raced.

Us And Them was stablemate Le Richebourg's default when that ante-post favourite was ruled out of the race.

He had chased him home in two of the ‘Key Races’ (see below) - the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at Leopardstown and the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at the same track - having previously won a chase racing left-handed, and also run at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival.

Paloma Blue hit a lot of trends for the Arkle, winning impressively last time out in a beginners chase at Leopardstown and finishing fourth in the 2018 Supreme Novices' Hurdle. He went on to be sixth, fitting the 'Place Trends' well.

KEY ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged between five and eight
• Had two or more starts in that season
• Were running within 90 days of their last run
• Finished in the first three last time out

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Won last time out
• Had won at least one chase
• Were aged between six and eight
• Had run no more than four times over fences
• Last ran no more than 75 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were Irish or French-bred
• Were officially rated 151+
• Had run between three and five times in that season
• Had won over the distance
• Had won on a left-handed track
• Had run at Cheltenham before, five winning

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had won a Graded race, six at Grade 1 level

The last 29 win and place positions

29/29 placed horses

• Were aged between six and eight
• Had won on a galloping track

28/29 placed horses

• Had run between three and seven times in the last 12 months
• Ran no more than 90 days ago
• Finished in the first three last time out

27/29 placed horses

• Won one of their last three starts

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Arkle Novices Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Duc Des Genievres Won 2019's Arkle Novices' Chase

Untried outside maiden company, Duc Des Genievres romped to a facile 13-length win in the 2019 Arkle Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, to give trainer Willie Mullins a quick-fire double.

Successful minutes earlier in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle with Klassical Dream, Mullins watched on as Gowran Park beginners' chase winner finally hit the big time, well surpassing all he had achieved over hurdles.

2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 ARKLE NOVICES CHASE RESULT

1. Duc Des Genievres 5/1
2. Us And Them 14/1
3. Articulum 25/1

The six-year-old had not managed to win for Mullins in Ireland since leaving France in 2017, until that Gowran Park win set up his now fabled Arkle tilt. Jockey Paul Townend had an armchair ride on the grey, Us And Them galloping on for second, ahead of Articulum, a first Festival run for County Cork trainer Terence O'Brien.

It was a one-two-three for Ireland, Clondaw Castle best of the British-trained runners in fourth, and the 100/30 favourite Hardline, trained by Gordon Elliott, finishing seventh.

Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 - Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase