Baseball Betting Strategy: Picking a World Series Winner

SHARE

Baseball Betting Strategy: Picking a World Series Winner

Betting on the winner of the World Series of baseball is no mean feat. While the regular season stats are immensely useful game by game, the playoffs are an entirely different beast. But there are some useful precedents available for punters to consider.

Season Form

The first question to ask is just how far season form can predict who will eventually triumph at the World Series. In the 2013 MLB regular season, Boston and St. Louis had the best form in the series, with tied win percentages of 59.9%, just pipping Oakland and Atlanta whose win rate was 59.3% (that's just one more loss). Nonetheless, fine margins proved decisive, and the finalists were Boston and St. Louis, with Boston rising to become the eventual victors.

However, over the long term, regular season results have not been a reliable indicator of the eventual champions. In 2012, the San Francisco Giants triumphed despite finishing the season with the fifth best record, and the beaten finalists were Detroit: whose record was 11th in the league. 2011 winners the St. Louis Cardinals' had a 55.6% record before the playoffs, ranked 9th overall, 2010 winners the Giants were fifth again, in 2009 the Yankees were top, but in 2008 the Phillies were fifth, and so on, showing that, over 20 years or so, there is no obvious correlation.

Recent Form

One trend does tend to stand out when looking at form, however, and that is that the winning teams tend to have above average form over the 10 games running up to the playoffs. This is often true for more than one team, but it really does help to identify the hot teams when moving into the close season when trying to bet on a World Series winner.

Last Season

One simple factor that can be identified early is how well the last series winner is playing in the current season. Although no team has repeated the dominance of the Yankees in the late '90s, the Red Sox have won three World Series titles since 2000, and the Giants and Cardinals two apiece. So there are repeat performers within a rolling 10-year period.

Previous years' finalists are also worth considering when looking for current season champions, but, more often than not, it is several years before a beaten finalist returns to claim their prize. St. Louis were beaten finalists in '04, and returned to win in '06, the Yankees beaten in '03 next won in '09, and the Giants lost in '02 and won in '10. All of which suggests that identifying medium-term rebuilding strategies may represent a better approach when looking for the next MLB champions.

Decisive Factors

A final crucial aspect to examine when looking at the World Series winner market are decisive players who rise beyond the moneyball tactic of buying runs, outs and blocks and create a psychological advantage when it comes to closing out crucial games.

In 2012, San Francisco's Buster Posey might not have amassed the most runs, but he did have the highest batting average and that became a crucial factor in the playoffs. In 2011, the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright's enviably low earned run average was critical. Spotting these players, particularly those that can stay fit, makes all the difference when making your bet.

For all the latest odds in baseball betting's 'World Series winner' market, visit Betfred Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


England vs West Indies ODI’s Best Odds from Top Bookmakers
England vs West Indies ODI’s Best Odds from Top Bookmakers

After the latest nail-biting International Test Match Series against the West Indies, England proved it could steal the show, winning the third game. Now, with a series of One Day Internationals (ODI) ... Read More

Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Emmy’s Top Awards 2017
Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Emmy’s Top Awards 2017

The 69th Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Sunday 17th September, and it looks to be an exciting evening for those with a nose for exemplary television shows. Check out our extensive betting preview ... Read More

Singapore Grand Prix 2017 Expert Betting Tips and Preview
Singapore Grand Prix 2017 Expert Betting Tips and Preview

The Singapore Grand Prix always delivers in terms of entertainment and this season looks as though it will be no different. With Lewis Hamilton taking the chequered flag at the recent Italian Grand Pr ... Read More

Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017
Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017

The NFL has grown in global coverage over the past decade, giving punters more in the way of betting interest and ammunition when it comes to placing value bets. With the 2017/18 NFL season kicking of ... Read More

Who Experts Think are Leading the EPL Managerial Sack Race
Who Experts Think are Leading the EPL Managerial Sack Race

In what has been dubbed The Sack Race, the top sports bookmakers now take bets not only on which teams may win or lose, but also which manager will be the first to fall on his sword or pushed out the ... Read More

Guide to Betting the Men’s and Women’s US Tennis Open 2017
Guide to Betting the Men’s and Women’s US Tennis Open 2017

Tennis fans will be flocking to the Flushing Meadows neighbourhood of Queens, New York City, for the US Open. The two-week Grand Slam extravaganza will see more 128 players battle it out for the troph ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide