Best NFL Quarterback Prop Bets for the 2018 Season
- Bet Jimmy Garoppolo to top Tom Brady in passing yards at +163 at William Hill.
- Bet Eli Manning to have over 17.5 passing TDs at William Hill.
- Bet Aaron Rodgers at +300 for Comeback Player of the Year at William Hill.
- Bet Aaron Rodgers at +800 to lead the NFL in passing yards at William Hill.
The NFL season is less than a full month away. As per usual, many of those interested in NFL betting during the 2018 season will be keeping an eye on the quarterbacks, as this is still very much a passing league. As we make our way through preseason, we decided to look at the best quarterback props on the board at William Hill, so here’s our favorite plays on the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo More Passing Yards Than Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo was Tom Brady’s backup for many years, but the New England Patriots traded him midseason to the San Francisco 49ers last year. It seems the 49ers found a gem, as Garoppolo looked every bit a star, winning his final five games. Now the two will forever be linked.
William Hill has posted a prop debating on which will have the most passing yards in 2018, and it would seem like the student is capable of outdoing the master.
For starters, consider that Brady is 41 years old. While he still has his boy Rob Gronkowski to throw to, remember that he’s lost a lot of receiving weapons.
Brandin Cooks was traded, Danny Amendola signed with Miami, Dion Lewis signed with Tennessee and Julian Edelman, who is coming off a torn ACL, is suspended for the first four games of the season.
That leaves Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson as the team’s top wideouts. This might be the worst cast Brady has had to work with in a long time.
At the same time, consider that Garoppolo had at least 292 passing yards in four of five starts last season while averaging 308.4. If he had played all 16 games and averaged 292 per game, he would have led the league last season.
And remember, he was playing for a new team with new weapons in a new system at season's end. Now he’s had a full offseason to get comfortable. Brady will still have another strong season, but bet Garoppolo at +163 to top him in passing yards.
Eli Manning Over 17.5 Regular Season TD Passes
The main question for this prop is does Eli still have it? He fell off last year, posting a quarterback rating of 80.4 – his worst since 2013. The Giants were mostly dysfunctional as a unit and he took the brunt of the blame.
At the same time, he’s now 37 years old, so we don’t know what he’s got left in the tank.
But it’s hard to Manning throwing for 17 or fewer touchdowns. After all, even in a disastrous season in which he lost his best wide receiver in Odell Beckham Jr., had no running game to lean on and was benched, he still threw for 19.
He’s never had a season where he’s thrown for 17 or less. The offensive line, passing game and running game should be there for support this time around.
Bet the over at -138.
Deshaun Watson's Yards, Rushing TDs
The prop here is will the Texans quarterback go over 4,199.5 passing yards, 499.5 rushing yards and 2.5 rushing TDs.
Hitting 4,200 passing yards will be the tough part here. Watson should get 500 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, because he is so gifted as a runner and will either sneak or bootleg the ball into the end zone when the Houston Texans get in red-zone situations.
The large yard total should merit some skepticism, since the AFC South has tough defenses and good secondaries, especially in Jacksonville with the Jaguars.
This is not the most freewheeling and wide-open division in football, and Houston will want to protect Watson instead of requiring him to throw the ball 35 or more times per game. He probably won’t get to 4,200 yards passing.
The smart bet here is to take the under.
Aaron Rodgers, Comeback Player of the Year
There are a number of good options for Comeback Player of the Year, but is there a better bet than Rodgers? Probably not.
The reason is because if he’s healthy, which he appears to be, he’s going to be an MVP candidate. He had 16 touchdowns in just seven games last year.
If he’s back to what he typically does, which is in the 30-40 range, and the Packers are competitive, which they will be if he’s at his best, then he’ll easily be the frontrunner for this award. Take Rodgers to win the award at +300.
Who Will Lead The NFL In Passing?
Building on the last point, Rodgers is the smart play for this prop. Green Bay will face resistance from Minnesota in the division, but Rodgers will get four games to carve up the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.
But opponents really don’t matter, as he’s going to find ways to move the ball through the air. That’s especially true because Green Bay is not a complete team. They don’t have a dominant running game. Their best bet to win is to air it out with Rodgers.
While Drew Brees and Tom Brady are good options, both are older and that’s a bit of a concern. Double up on Rodgers and take him here at +800.
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