Golf Betting Strategy: How to Find Value

SHARE

Golf Betting Strategy: How to Find Value

Golf betting is a tricky business, and top odds are available for shrewd punters who think they can pick a tournament winner. Less well-recognised, however, is the value in picking a winner in-play; likewise the importance of 'head-to-head' markets, which enable fans of the fairway to notch up regular wins while they wait for that big payout.

Pre-Match Betting

In pre-match betting, the best value is to be found in outsiders, newcomers and dark horses. Since Tiger Woods' dominance has waned, tournaments have rarely been won by the favourite, and so regular golf backers require big wins to offset regular losses on 'tournament winner' bets: and an odds-on favourite won't deliver that. The primary factors to consider when seeking a likely underdog are:

  • Form: a player's performance in recent tournaments
  • Experience: proven ability to win, or hunger to prove they can
  • The Course: how a player's game suits the length and layout
  • Weather Conditions: wind, rain or baking heat all affect play; remember, tee off times are a factor here too
  • Playing Partners: a partner can inspire (or hold back) a performance

In-Play Betting: Shortening Odds

Those who prefer to hold out for the best odds are advised to bet with caution - good play can shorten odds in a heartbeat. For example, in the fourth round of the 2014 Hyundai Tournament of Champions, Matt Kuchar's birdie on the seventh saw him tumble from 33/1 to 10/1 on Bet365 Sports. The worst thing to do is follow the pack and jump in at the lower odds, because Kuchar jumped back to 50/1 after a subsequent bogie, and gradually fell away as players with later tee times caught up. The key with golf in-play betting is to judge a performance over several holes, and try and get in before the leaderboard (and the prices) change. These rapid fluctuations in the 'tournament winner' market also show us the importance of finding low-risk alternatives.

'Round Leader' Market

If the weather is likely to be favourable for a particular pairing, consider a bet on the round leader. Take the third round of the 2013 Open Championship, when Lee Westwood sat in a strong position for most of the day, beginning to end. Even with favourable conditions for the on-form Englishman, most bookies still gave out odds of around 10/1 (shortening to 2/1) for Westwood to hold his lead. His tournament winner odds were not much higher, despite a changeable weather forecast, so the round leader bet represented a sensible chance to minimise risk while cashing in on his play.

'Hole Winner' Market

Alternatively, risk-averse punters may wish to consider the hole winner markets. Seek out mismatches, or players who size up differently - perhaps a big hitter like Dustin Johnson paired against a player with less range on a Par five; or an accurate player on a par three. In tight match-ups, a tie becomes even more common, and regular bets on these can yield consistent, small income to wager ratios on the less predictable 'tournament and round winner' markets. Betting sites like Bet365 Sports also offer 'player matchup' markets over several holes, so predictions can be stretched further for slightly longer odds.

Play these fluctuation and hedging strategies wisely and golf betting suddenly looks a lot less difficult and a lot more lucrative. To see how far you've come with golf betting, check out the available golf betting markets at Bet365 Sports

Recommended Betting Sites

Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of New Zealand's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of New Zealand's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles


Best Bets of the 2018 NFL Conference Championship Weekend
Best Bets of the 2018 NFL Conference Championship Weekend

Before any Super Bowl betting, the NFL must figure out which two teams will represent their conferences for the title. The NFC and AFC Conference Championships are jammed packed full of value bets in ... Read More

What the Experts Are Saying About Betting Bellator 192
What the Experts Are Saying About Betting Bellator 192

Bellator 192 promises to be another classic for MMA bettors the world over. The mouth-watering title clash on 20 January between Douglas Lima and Rory MacDonald opens up some interesting markets for p ... Read More

Snooker Masters 2018 Set to Offer Plenty of Betting Value
Snooker Masters 2018 Set to Offer Plenty of Betting Value

Defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan is bidding to win his eighth title at the Dafabet Masters 2018. However, with many strong contenders, snooker is rarely a sure thing. With the tournament just arou ... Read More

Experts Pick the Best Bets for the Australian Open 2018
Experts Pick the Best Bets for the Australian Open 2018

The Championship portion of the Australian Open begins January 15th after qualifying rounds. It's a new year and new season and there are some big names missing from the roster, but that won't take aw ... Read More

Experts Pick the Best EurAsia Cup Bets and Odds for 2018
Experts Pick the Best EurAsia Cup Bets and Odds for 2018

This weekend is the EurAsia Cup, where some of golf's greatest talent will be battling it out in Kuala Lumpur. On the back of a poor 2016 tournament it's likely that Team Asia will go all in, but will ... Read More

Finding Value Bets Following World Cup Group Announcements
Finding Value Bets Following World Cup Group Announcements

The World Cup draws ever closer and the groups have now been announced. If you're planning on taking a punt on some of the games, finding value bets is – quite literally – your best bet, so here's som ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Trading Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2018 GDC Trading Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Trading Limited.
Terms and Conditions   |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4AndroidGET IT ONfacebookDownload_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917twitter