Marsh Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 2nd, 2020

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BEST 2020 MARSH NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

• Aged six or seven
• Won one of last three starts
• Last ran in a Graded novice chase
• Had won left-handed
• Officially rated 144+

Betting On Cheltenham's 2020 Marsh Novices' Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Marsh Novices' Chase, known as the JLT Novices' Chase up until the 2020 renewal.

We've analysed in detail every running of the Cheltenham Festival's newest novices' chase, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Marsh Novices' Chase, just as they did last year when circling winner Defi Du Seuil.

Scroll down to find out why the trends picked him last year, and read full details of all the key Marsh Novices' Hurdle trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Marsh Novices' Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Marsh Novices' Chase?

Shortlisted via the Marsh Novices' Chase trends last year were Pravalaguna, Defi Du Seuil, and Lostintranslation - the latter two filling the first two places in the newest Cheltenham Festival novices' chase.

The Philip Hobbs-trained Defi Du Seuil the Marsh Novices' Chase shortlist by winning a ‘Key Race’ (see below), the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown and cantering to the top of the Cheltenham betting. Lostintranslation finished second that day, and the pair had also met at Cheltenham, where Defi Du Seuil was beaten.

They ticked all the key trends, including all of the Top 5 listed above, as did Pravalaguna, with the exception of the requirement to have last run in a Graded race - her last run was winning a Listed chase.

The 14/1 shot also had not run three times that season, winning her two outings by wide margins instead. Nevertheless, she was an ideal candidate on 'Place Trends', though she could manage just ninth after hitting the fourth-last.

KEY MARSH NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

9-year-trends (race first run 2011)

The last 9 winners…

• Were aged six or seven
• Were officially rated 144+
• Won one of their last three starts
• Had three to five starts that season
• Had run in two to five novice chases
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had three or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran in a Graded novice chase

Eight of the last nine winners…

• Were Irish or French-bred
• Last ran within 60 days
• Won, or were beaten no more than a short-head, last time out

The last 27 win and place positions

27/27 placed horses

• Won one of their last three starts

26/27 placed horses

• Were officially rated 143+
• Had two or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran in a Graded race

25/27 placed horses

• Were Irish or French-bred

KEY RACE TRENDS (9 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Marsh Novices' Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (9 years)

How Defi Du Seuil Won 2019's Marsh Novices' Chase

Cheltenham Festival glory went to Defi Du Seuil in the 2019 Marsh Novices' Chase, then known as the JLT Novices' Chase, the six-year-old justifying favouritism to win by more than two lengths.

Never far from sparring partner Lostintranslation, the Barry Geraghty-ridden winner jumped the last upsides, but landed the winner and kept on strongly.

1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 MARSH NOVICES' CHASE RESULT

1. Defi Du Seuil 3/1f
2. Lostintranslation 4/1
3. Mengli Khan 9/1

Lostintranslation had been beaten by Defi Du Seuil last time out at Sandown in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase, though was as short as 4/1 for the rematch, having earlier beaten him at Cheltenham.

Third was Mengli Khan, who was running beyond 2m1f for the first time and recorded a career-best effort, despite making a costly mistake three fences from home. He went on to be third in a third consecutive Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree.

Cheltenham 2020 Thursday Schedule

13:30 - Marsh Novices' Chase

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends