Democratic Primary Betting: Biden Announcement Shifts Odds

Craig Cummings

April 25th, 2019

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Democratic Primary betting can be a very lucrative business for keen-eyed political betting enthusiasts. In 2016 it was the GOP flaunting what felt like an endless list of potential nominees but now it's the Democrats' turn.

Trump might have a strangle hold on the Republican nomination but the Democratic nomination is wide open for 2020. The favorite to win seems to shift almost every month and will only get worse as more and more candidates jump in.

Sen. Bernie Sanders is the current favourite to win the 2020 Democratic Nomination at 3/1 but is only just ahead of Joe Biden at 4/1 following the former VP formally entering the race.

Biden has been slumping of late and was running in third behind Harris till his announcement to officially join the race bumped him into second favourite. Unfortunately for Biden's camp, his long-expected jump into the race didn't push him ahead Bernie.

2020 Democratic Nomination Odds

Bernie Gaining Momentum

Bernie Sanders is the favorite to win the nomination at 3/1 and many expect now that he's officially in the race he will push even further ahead.

The biggest threats to a Bernie nomination in 2020 was once Joe Biden but as more time passes it appears Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg are the most threatening.

Now that Biden has jumped into the race, he will look to get Obama's support which would presumably put him into the favourite spot over Bernie but many believe Obama won't back anyone till the nomination is secured.

Mayor Pete and Andrew Yang Gaining Support

The two most interesting candidates running for the Democratic nomination have to be Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg.

Yang, a successful entrepreneur who made a bulk of his wealth in Silicon Valley, is gaining momentum as of late for his advocacy of universal basic income for Americans.

Buttigieg, whom the media have dubbed 'Mayor Pete', is the current mayor of South Bend, Indiana and could be the biggest surprise of the entire race so far.

Yang has seen significant rise in the polls even passing Democrat heavy-weights like Booker and Warren but he still polls behind the likes of Beto but Buttigieg is not only gaining support, he's risen in the polls to sit just behind Biden, Harris and Bernie.

It will be interesting to see if candidates seemingly unknown to the US public just a months ago can hang with the more prominent names.

Beto Slumps

Beto O'Rourke hit the spot light during the 2018 midterm elections when he nearly knocked off incumbent Ted Cruz to become the Senator from Texas.

Beto, as they like to call him in the media, might have lost his race but gained enough popularity (and raised enough money) to garner attention in the 2020 race.

Once described in a Politico article as "Barack Obama, but white", Beto is the hot name right now, especially after his official announcement.

Unfortunately for Beto, his luster has begun to wore off and he's slipping in the polls. A field as crowded as this is bound to see a lot of fluctuation but as of late, backing Beto isn't looking as strong as it once did.

Harris Climbs Back

First-term California Senator, Kamala Harris was not much of a household name in 2016 but sure is now that she is considered one of the top candidates to challenge Trump in 2020.

Entering her name in the race for the 2020 Democratic Nomination well ahead of any other prominent names, Harris got a serious jump start in the polls and has yet to relinquish that momentum.

If you think Harris is the nominee come November 2020, it might be a good time to back her now that Biden has entered the race and her odds are a bit longer.

How Democratic Primaries Work

In order to determine who will represent their party, every state will vote in either a primary or a caucus.

There are subtle differences between the way they both work, and matters are further complicated by the fact that each party and state has its own legislation about exactly how to conduct them.

The basic process works in the following way: party delegates (elected officials) pledge their support for a presidential candidate, before party members vote for their chosen delegates to attend the national convention, based on who they support.

The delegates then attend the convention and vote for their presidential candidate.

3 Things to Consider When Betting Democratic Primaries

1. Super Delegates | Some delegates aren't pledged to a specific candidate, and can vote however they choose at the national convention. Lots of super delegates can mean last-minute twists.
2. Closed/Open Primaries | Closed primaries only allow registered Democrats to vote, in open primaries anyone can vote (in either Democrat or Republican primaries, never both).
3. Proportional Representation | Unlike the Republicans, who can operate winner-takes-all primaries, the Democrats use proportional representation – meaning the delegates reflect the percentage of the vote they receive.

Key Dates to Track

Timing your bet is vital to extracting maximum value from Democratic primary betting, and there are a number of historically important events and dates that can help you get this right.

Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries traditionally open the presidential candidate selection process; since 1976, every single nominee from both parties has won one of these, so these markets are worth looking into.

The Iowa Caucuses are set to take place on February 3, 2020.

New York and California, which now votes on Super Tuesday, tend to be reliable as they are generally the states with the most Democrat delegates.

Since the 1980s, Super Tuesday has been the day on which most states hold their primaries, and it's generally make-or-break time for serious candidates. Super Tuesday is planned for March 3rd, 2020.

Democratic Nomination Betting Strategies

There are plenty of ways to build a betting strategy when gambling on the outcome of the nest US Democratic Primary. For example:

• Choosing an outsider. | In the early markets, spreading several bets across fancied outsiders could yield big returns.
• Cashing out. | If you do opt to back outsiders, some bookies will let you cash out before the bet has run – excellent if the twists and turns hit, as expected, on key dates.
• Waiting for the right odds. | Alternatively, hold off on your favorite until they face adversity and their odds lengthen. Even a fancied favorite could hit a stumbling block at some point.

Use your research to develop a strategy that suits your betting outlook, and don't deviate. A big risk with emotive betting markets like the Democratic primaries is getting caught up in media hype, which can cause problems.

In addition to choosing who to back and when, you might want to consider jumping to the US Presidential election betting market too. Remember, the prices in all political betting markets change quickly.