Why NBA Bettors Shouldn’t Abandon the Struggling Warriors

Mark Strotman

November 21st, 2018

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It was so inconspicuous at the time.

Draymond Green’s decision not to pass to Kevin Durant in the closing seconds of the Warriors’ Nov. 12 loss to the LA Clippers has sent Golden State into a tailspin. Green chewing out Durant in the locker room – and subsequently being suspended one game – has resulted in Golden State losing an unfathomable five of its last seven games.

It’s uncharted territory for this dynasty, and they’re missing Steph Curry (groin) and Green, who is also battling a toe injury in the wake of his suspension.

Quickly, here’s what’s been the issue (aside from missing two All-NBA players): They’re 25th in net rating since Nov. 12, and only the New York Knicks have been worse defensively in that timeframe. This coming from a team that has ranked 11th, 2nd and 6th and 1st and 3rd in defense the last five seasons.

NBA Oddsmakers Unmoved by Warriors Slide

The Warriors are still -200 at 888Sport in 2019 NBA Finals betting, which is what they’ve been for most of the summer and early going in the regular season. That number hasn’t moved, and it shouldn’t. Top basketball bookmakers aren’t overreacting and neither should you.

While it’s a rather large hiccup, it’s still just a hiccup and the calendar hasn’t even flipped to December. Curry’s injury isn’t though to be long-term, and Green’s toe could have him back sometime this weekend.

And remember, they’re going to get All-Pro center DeMarcus Cousins back sometime in the spring for their playoff push.

The chemistry question, however, is an interesting one for NBA betting fans. No one is denying the Warriors have the most talent in the league, and they can probably withstand a major injury in May and still win it all if it comes to that.

But Green is clearly upset by Durant and the hoopla surrounding his free agency decision this summer. It’s cliché, but it feels like the only team that can beat the Warriors is…the Warriors.

Warriors NBA Betting Advice & Tips

Short-Term Betting Outlook

In the near term, they’re vulnerable. There’s no denying how much the defense misses Green, and Curry’s otherworldly offense has always acted as a catalyst for the defense: The Warriors offense puts pressure on teams to keep up, which in turn helps the Golden State defense.

Durant has struggled mightily, and Thompson being asked to be the No. 2 scorer hasn’t always worked out. It certainly hasn’t the last two weeks.

The Warriors are 2-5 straight up, but they’re also 2-5 against the spread in that span. And this is a team that’s been second in the NBA against the spread since 2013 (269-242-7; only Boston has been better).

And after being favorites in the first 15 games of the year, the Warriors have been underdogs in two of their last three, losing both of those games and failing to cover. It’ll likely get worse before it gets better, but it will get better.

Long-Term Betting Outlook

Golden State plays its next four games at home, and there’s a chance Curry could return at some point during that home stand. Long term, the Warriors are just fine. They’re the prohibitive favorites and will be up and running in no time, especially by April.

And one has to think they’ve hit rock bottom in this short term. They’ll be back to themselves playing at home. This is likely the time for it to turn around for Steve Kerr’s squad.

We feel confident Durant will break out of his slump and Kerr will find the right rotations that have the wins (and covers) back in no time.