This US Presidential Election 2020 betting guide is here to help you choose the latest odds, discover the best political betting sites, read politics betting tips and understand how breaking news affects markets, so you can bet with confidence across a wide range of bookmakers.
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Bookmakers Explain Why Trump and Biden Odds are Neck-and-Neck Despite Recent Polling | A flurry of bets on Donald Trump to win the 2020 US Election is artificially deflating his odds and bookmakers explain why there is a real discrepancy between betting markets and polling results.
Why Bettors Are Defying The Polls To Vote For Trump | American political polling may have Joe Biden in front but there are reasons Donald Trump is attracting more bets.
State Politics Betting Reveals Wild Differences Between Odds And Polls | The betting markets are still siding with Donald Trump to win Texas and many other swing states, even though Joe Biden leads in many of the latest polls.
Trump Betting Specials Expose Instability In The Market | Bettors are taking advantage of uncertainty among bookmakers over what Donald Trump will do next — from re-election chances to the possibility he could quit the election race.
Can Donald Trump win the 2024 US Election? | If he loses to Joe Biden, then the current president may run for the White House in 2024 and his odds indicate this is already a possibility.
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The US election is the most hotly anticipated political event in the world and for Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the spotlight is firmly on them as we near the 3 November poll date.
Being President of the United States bears huge responsibility not just domestically but abroad. The US remains the ‘leader of the free world’ and is looked upon by the West as the leader in global affairs.
But there are issues facing both 2020 election candidates that they must address as we close in on polling day. Trump has endured a firestorm of criticism ever since he announced his running for office back in 2015. The businessman shocked the world when beating Hilary Clinton to the White House — despite the polls and betting odds suggesting he had no chance.
Biden, who has already served as Barack Obama’s vice president, is seen by many as the right man to take on Trump. But there are questions the Democratic nominee must address if he is to get the majority of America on his side.
Coronavirus is the stand-out issue of this upcoming election. Back at the start of 2020 Trump was riding high in the polls and betting odds to secure a second term. But the Covid-19 epidemic has triggered a plunge in approval ratings for the sitting president, who has since turned his ire to Black Lives Matter protesters, the World Health Organisation and China. Trump is in combative mood and thrives when the odds are stacked against him.
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American pollsters often accurately predict who will win the US election – and indeed the political betting odds usually follow the same trend and reflect the mood of the nation. Yet 2016 became the year where polling companies and bookmakers had to think again about political elections.
Trump’s victory over Clinton was a shock but perhaps we shouldn’t have been so surprised. After all, earlier that year the UK voted to leave the European Union in one of the most politically-controversial results in history.
Betting on the US election while the incumbent is running for a second term is often more straightforward than when it’s two new faces battling for the White House. That’s because there are few one-term presidents in the modern era and the markets reflect this confidence in the current office-holder. Indeed, Trump was the favourite to win the 2020 election before coronavirus struck — largely because the US economy was thriving.
Yet that doesn’t mean he’s now out of the race. As we saw with Barack Obama in 2012 and George W. Bush in 2004, Americans tend to lean with the sitting president even if the country is enduring difficult times. And this certainly adds credence to the view that Trump will beat Biden this November.
Watching the Trump and Biden campaign trails produces plenty of interesting talking points. Yet for bettors it also provides an insight into how the political betting markets might play out over the course of the election.
Many punters like to play the odds in order to maximise their potential profits. This method of engaging in arbitrage requires betting on political outcomes at high odds, and then laying the same market once those odds have come in.
We have already seen this happen during the 2020 US Election, with Biden originally an outsider to get the Democratic nomination. Bettors who backed the former VP to win the election this year will likely have laid Biden now he has a 50/50 chance of making it into the Oval Office.
What’s more, bettors who stayed away from Trump’s slim odds at the start of 2020 have since been backing him heavily over the crisis-laden summer, where his price ballooned. Shrewd punters may well decide to lay Trump at much lower odds the closer we get to election day.
This backing and laying strategy is risky business but past elections have shown how profitable it can be. Obama was the heavy outsider to win the 2008 election when he first ran for the Democratic nomination. And Trump was the wild no-hoper with huge odds on the day he announced his run for office five years ago.
Predicting who will win the US election is a minefield of polling numbers, betting odds, breaking news and sheer luck. And Trump’s win in 2016 was even more remarkable than Harry Truman beating Thomas Dewey in 1948, or Franklin D. Roosevelt winning all but two states in 1936.
Heading into this election we will see the same, tired gimmicks that come around every four years. A chimpanzee in a Milwaukee zoo will choose between a red and a blue food bowl to ‘predict’ the winner; a man in Oregon will boast about finding a potato chip with a weird likeness to Trump; a beached whale will be recorded audibly moaning the word “Biiiiden” as rescuers battle to set it free.
There are some weird trends that appear to capture the imagination of the country. School kids voting for president boast a +80% chance of getting it right every year. Vigo County in Indiana correctly voted to within five percentage points of the national election result in every poll from 1960 until Trump’s shock win in 2016.
These light-hearted trends and many others are all part of the fun of predicting the election. Whether or not they make for a good basis for political bets is for you to decide.
Political pollsters and punters learned plenty of lessons from the 2016 election, where Trump claimed a historic victory over Clinton. What many experts believed would be a straight-forward contest descended into a bitter rivalry and the divisive nature of the election campaign went in Trump’s favour.
A year out from the 2016 election and Trump was 25/1 to win. That price plummeted to 6/4 on the eve of the first presidential debate, during which he staked his claim for the White House.
As polling day neared, the split between bets for Trump and Clinton was notable. Most of the big bets — those that run into thousands of pounds — were placed on Clinton to claim victory. Yet the majority of small bets from average punters landed at Trump’s door. This is largely because his odds were just too good to refuse, and some of the biggest and best bookmakers were made to pay when the underdog won his seat in the White House.
Bookmakers, pollsters and punters have all learned their lesson from 2016. Now, any two-way outcome to a political election is treated with scrutiny. And that’s why Trump’s latest odds are neck-and-neck with Biden, despite the 74-year-old trailing by as much as 13 percentage points in the polls during the height of the coronavirus crisis.
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