Pick 6: NFL Betting Picks for Week 9
Welcome to the home of NFL betting tips on Gambling.com - where you can find NFL betting picks updated weekly ahead of the weekend's games. We've done the research, gone through the NFL betting lines for this week and selected some of the best bets across all of the available markets with the best NFL betting sites.
NFL expert Charlie Mullan has looked at the statistics in detail and provided his six tips below. We've also called upon former Pro Bowler and Gambling.com ambassador Shawne Merriman for his Week 9 predictions.
- Cowboys -9.5 v the Broncos - 10/11 William Hill
- Bengals to win 4th quarter vs. Browns - 23/20 William Hill
- Bills -3.5 in first quarter - 10/11 with bet365
- Raiders vs. Giants - under 9.5 Q1 points - 20/23 with William Hill
- Packers to have more punts v Chiefs - 7/10 William Hill
- Titans v Rams - Q2 highest-scoring quarter - 5/2 William Hill
As we approach week 9 of the NFL season, the eight divisions are beginning to take shape. The market to win Super Bowl LVI has shifted quite a bit since the first snap of the season back in September. The Bills have emerged as the favourites to win their first ever Vince Lombardi Trophy, with the Buccaneers remaining favourites in the NFC. The Chiefs, with a 4-4 record, have seen their odds drift to 10/1 while the Cardinals, who began the season at 40/1, can now be backed at 10/1 to win February’s Super Bowl.
Dallas Cowboys v Denver Broncos
So far this season the Cowboys have been the safest bet when it comes to NFL spread betting. Dallas covered the spread in all seven of their matches to date and they should really make it eight in a row at home to a Broncos team that has lost four of their last five. The Cowboys are 10/11 to cover the 9.5 point spread in Texas.
Whether the Cowboys have been underdogs (3-0) or whether they have been favourites (4-0), they have taken care of business while employing a style associated with Dallas in the 1990s when they won the last of their five Super Bowls.
Quarterback Dak Prescott (who is fifth-favourite in NFL MVP betting) should return for this game, but even if he doesn’t, back-up Cooper Rush should lead Dallas to victory like he did last weekend against the Vikings. The Broncos have been slow starters in road games, allowing their opponents to score first in their last three.
Shawne Merriman's Verdict: I’m taking the Cowboys, whether Dak Prescott is back or not. I don’t think we’re talking about how good the Dallas Cowboys are across the board. And I’m not taking anything away from Dak. He’s transformed into a great player. But that team is stacked. At every single position, they have a player that you can probably make an argument for as one of the best in the NFL.
Linebacker Micah Parsons is an up-and-coming star. Trevon Diggs at cornerback is an up-and-coming star. The one-two running back combo with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Look at that team. They’re stacked everywhere. And when they get Dak back, they’ll get right on board.
Cincinnati Bengals v Cleveland Browns
The Browns travel to Cincinnati to face their division rivals knowing they are in danger of missing out on the play-offs. At 4-4, Cleveland are bottom of the AFC North and defeat this weekend will leave them with too much to do to make the post-season.
The Bengals somehow lost to the lowly Jets last weekend and they will be looking to make amends on home soil in the battle of Ohio. This rivalry is one of the best in the league, with Cincinnati leading the all-time series 51-44. The Browns have won five of the last six meetings however.
If the Browns are to win this game, they will want to take a sizable lead into the fourth quarter as the Bengals have been finishing matches strongly lately. They have scored 35 fourth quarter points in their last three games while the Browns have failed to score in the final quarter in their last three games. William Hill is among the top betting sites offering a comprehensive selection of markets for this game. They've priced the Bengals at 23/20 to win the fourth quarter.
SM's Verdict: I’m taking the Bengals. I know they lost against the Jets, but I just think they took the Jets lightly.
I was also shocked that Cleveland didn’t trade Odell Beckham Jr. I was extremely shocked with that. He had one target last week. You got the most talented wide receiver in the NFL and he has one target, and you know he’s beating guys one-on-one. Listen, you throw him a couple of screens or slants, you let him do whatever the hell he wants to do. You create plays for him. Targeted once? If you’re going to do that, get him out of there and go get a second or third-round pick. I don’t understand that. Send him to Green Bay or send him somewhere that he’s going to be utilized.
Jacksonville Jaguars v Buffalo Bills
You have to feel for the Jaguars. The struggling franchise took quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft hoping it would turn their fortunes around. But that hasn’t been the case and they have just one win from seven. It’s hard to see them upsetting the rampant Bills in Jacksonville.
The Bills are favourite to win the Super Bowl for a reason. Their offence is ranked sixth in the NFL while their defence is the best in the league. Also, they are the only team yet to allow a first quarter touchdown in their seven games this season. In fact, a Chiefs field goal is the only points the Bills have allowed in the first 15 minutes of games this year.
Buffalo have scored first in six of their seven contests and they are 10/11 with bet365 to win the first quarter with a 3.5 point handicap. The Bills are 14.5 point favourites to improve their record to 6-2 and reaffirm their status as Super Bowl favourites.
SM's Verdict: Bills, of course. I think it’s going to be a blowout.
New York Giants v Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have been rocked by more off-field issues this week which could affect them ahead of their trip to face the Giants in New York. The Raiders are looking for a third straight win, but the Giants will not make things easy for them after running the Chiefs close in their last outing.
Neither of these two teams have been quick out of the blocks this season and if those trends continue, this could be a slow burner. Between them, they have scored just two first quarter touchdowns and it’s no surprise to see them lurking near the bottom of the scoring list for the opening 15 minutes.
The Giants’ average of 1.6 first quarter points is the worst in the league while the Raiders are 26th in that list - scoring an average of 2.6 points in the first quarter. William Hill are offering odds of 20/23 for the first quarter to produce under 9.5 total points.
SM's Verdict: I’m going with the Raiders.
Kansas City Chiefs v Green Bay Packers
Chiefs punter Tommy Townsend has arguably the best job in the NFL. He gets to watch Patrick Mahomes - one of the best quarterbacks in the league -during a season in which games involving Kansas City average a total of 53.5 points per game. That’s easily the most in the NFL.
Mahomes and the Chiefs offence have done their job, scoring 26 points per game (9th in the league). But their defence is a shambles and gives up 27.5 points on average (25th in the NFL). This weekend, the Chiefs face Green Bay, who are without future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers after he tested positive for Covid. Townsend will hope he isn't too busy, as that would mean the Chiefs ending drives with points scored.
Packers fans will finally get to see Jordan Love under centre for the first time since Green Bay traded up to select him in the first round of last year’s Draft. He may struggle to move the chains, which makes the Chiefs punting fewer times than the Packers a good bet at 7/10 with William Hill.
SM's Verdict: (Pick made before news that Aaron Rodgers is sitting out)
I’m going with the Packers. I’m an Aaron Rodgers guy. Patrick Mahomes is out-of-this-world talented, but to see what Aaron Rodgers has done over this past decade with the talent at wide receiver and everything else, it’s just extraordinary.
Los Angeles Rams v Tennessee Titans
The Titans and Rams contested one of the closest Super Bowls when the Titans came up one yard short in a 23-16 win for the Rams and their ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ team in 2000. The 2021 version of the Rams are on course to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in head coach Sean McVay’s reign.
Tennessee were looking likely to make it back to the title game for the first time since that 2000 showdown, although losing star running back Derrick Henry is a major blow. However the signing of Adrian Peterson should enable the Titans to run the ball efficiently.
These two teams lead the league with points scored in the second quarter. The Titans score an average of 10.8 points in the 15 minutes before half-time while the Rams are posting 10.6 points in the second quarter. The second quarter is 5/2 with William Hill to be the highest-scoring quarter in this weekend’s game.
SM's Verdict: I’m taking the Rams. And if Von Miller actually plays – I don’t know how quick they’ll get him on the field – I expect a big game from him and at least two sacks.
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