2019 MLB Team Win Total Odds & How You Should Bet Each Team

2019 MLB Team Win Total Odds & How You Should Bet Each Team

For a lot of teams in Major League Baseball, the season is over before it even begins, because so many are rebuilding, retooling, or tanking, depending on what phraseology you like.

For those teams, there’s still baseball betting action and a reason to follow the season: win total over/unders. Every year, it’s a tricky proposition, as challenging for the also-rans as it is for the contenders. What will this year bring?

Over/Under Win Total For Every MLB Team in 2019

TeamWin Total Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks75.5
Atlanta Braves84.5
Baltimore Orioles59.5
Boston Red Sox95.5
Chicago Cubs*89.5
Chicago White Sox71.5
Cincinnati Reds79.5
Cleveland Indians*91.5
Colorado Rockies84
Detroit Tigers68
Houston Astros*95.5
Kansas City Royals68.5
Los Angeles Angels83.5
Los Angeles Dodgers*93
Miami Marlins64
Milwaukee Brewers85.5
Minnesota Twins83
New York Mets86.5
New York Yankees*96.5
Oakland Athletics82.5
Philadelphia Phillies*88
Pittsburgh Pirates78.5
San Diego Padres78.5
San Francisco Giants73.5
Seattle Mariners70.5
St. Louis Cardinals87.5
Tampa Bay Rays83.5
Texas Rangers71.5
Toronto Blue Jays74.5
Washington Nationals89.5
* = favorite to win division

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How to Bet on Each MLB Team’s 2019 Win Total

Arizona Diamondbacks

O/U: 75.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 82

FanGraphs projection: 79

Losing Paul Goldschmidt in a trade with the Cardinals hurts, as does seeing A.J. Pollock walk away in free agency, but the pitching staff is solid enough to make the Diamondbacks respectable.

At least, on paper. Given the unlikelihood of contending, and the farm system’s need for replenishment, a selloff at the trade deadline has to be a consideration, which would impact the win total.

Pick: Under


Atlanta Braves

O/U: 84.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 85

FanGraphs projection: 82

Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies are a year older, and presumably better. Josh Donaldson is on board, and Freddie Freeman is forever underrated. The pitching is good, too! But … the National League East is going to be a much tougher division this year. Stay away from this bet, but …

Pick: Under


Baltimore Orioles

O/U: 59.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 57

FanGraphs projection: 62

To cash the over, the Orioles will have to win 13 more games than they did a year ago. This is a team whose best players are Renato Nuñez, Cedric Mullins and Jonathan Villar. And they play in a division with maybe the two best teams in baseball, the Red Sox and Yankees. It’s going to be ugly.

Pick: Under


Boston Red Sox

O/U: 95.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 90

FanGraphs projection: 96

All nine players who were on the field at the end of the World Series are back with the Red Sox, whose most notable departures were Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly from the bullpen. Can Boston repeat as world champions with what remains in the relief corps? Maybe not. But can they make another run at 100-plus wins? Absolutely.

Pick: Over


 Kris Bryant

Chicago Cubs

O/U: 89.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 79

FanGraphs projection: 87

The fact that the entire starting rotation was born in the 1980s should be a cause for concern, as should the fact that the Cubs did pretty much nothing all winter. The line being where it is feels like a reflection of the Cubs’ popularity and recent success more than real guidance.

Pick: Under


Chicago White Sox

O/U: 71.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 70

FanGraphs projection: 69

Missing out on Manny Machado meant missing out on a chance to jump into instant contention in a weak division. The Pale Hose did, however, make some interesting moves in the winter, adding Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera to the bullpen, Ivan Nova to the rotation, and Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay to the lineup. Maybe top prospect Eloy Jimenez is the impact player who sparks a South Side revival? Either way, Chicago should spend some time beating up on Detroit and Kansas City.

Pick: Over


Cincinnati Reds

O/U: 79.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 81

FanGraphs projection: 81

After four straight last-place finishes, hopes are higher for the Reds, who traded for Yasiel Puig and Sonny Gray at a time when the farm system is starting to bear fruit. It’s almost weird to see a team whose championship window isn’t open, yet isn’t outwardly tanking. What a concept. The baseball gods will reward it.

Pick: Over


Cleveland Indians

O/U: 91.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 96

FanGraphs projection: 92

Quick, name a Cleveland outfielder. Don’t worry about it. They’ve still got Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez to generate enough offense for a rotation that still has Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger. Oh, and they play in an absolute tire fire of a division that they’ll win easily for the fourth straight year.

Pick: Over


Colorado Rockies

O/U: 84

Baseball Prospectus projection: 84

FanGraphs projection: 81

In 2017, the Rockies won 87 games to return to the playoffs for the first time in eight years. In 2018, the Rockies won 91 games and forced a one-game playoff for the NL West title. In 2019, with a lot of young talent that’s still improving, oddsmakers and projections foresee a big step backward?

It doesn’t add up, especially not with the drama of Nolan Arenado’s walk year abated by the MVP candidate’s contract extension.

Pick: Over


Detroit Tigers

O/U: 68

Baseball Prospectus projection: 67

FanGraphs projection: 69

With a healthy Miguel Cabrera and some decent starting pitching, the Tigers should be better than last year. Of course, last year the Tigers won 64 games. There’s no option to bet them to hit that 68-win total exactly, is there? Ah, nuts.

Pick: Over


Houston Astros

O/U: 95.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 98

FanGraphs projection: 94

The Astros not only have no holes on their roster, they have a good amount of depth to cover injuries along the way. Nobody in the AL West stands in the way of Houston winning a third straight division title. The only question is whether they’ll get bored.

Pick: Over


Kansas City Royals

O/U: 68.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 72

FanGraphs projection: 71

If you knew someone who had been in a coma since 2013, it would be hard to explain to them that the Royals got good in 2014, won the World Series in 2015, spent a few more years contending, and only then resumed life in baseball’s toilet. Moves like “signing Billy Hamilton when you already have Terrance Gore” are part of the reason why.

Pick: Under


Los Angeles Angels

O/U: 83.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 80

FanGraphs projection: 84

Who else is psyched up to waste another year of Mike Trout’s prime? Aside from the best player in the sport and two-way phenomenon Shohei Ohtani, the Angels are long on guys whose contributions don’t match their name recognition, starting with Albert Pujols, but including some of their offseason additions, like Matt Harvey, Jonathan Lucroy, and Cody Allen.

Pick: Under


 Corey Seager

Los Angeles Dodgers

O/U: 93

Baseball Prospectus projection: 93

FanGraphs projection: 93

Corey Seager’s return is huge, but you do have to wonder if the Dodgers will lose some spark with the departure of Yasiel Puig.

Los Angeles won 92 games last year (the 92nd coming in Game 163), went on a second straight deep playoff run, came back with a roster that isn’t necessarily better, and got projected to improve a bit with a line that’s in line with those projections. They’re good, but something feels amiss.

Pick: Under


Miami Marlins

O/U: 64

Baseball Prospectus projection: 67

FanGraphs projection: 66

The Marlins have a new logo, new uniforms and old Yankees. Curtis Granderson, Starlin Castro, Neil Walker and Martin Prado all call Miami home now, playing for manager Don Mattingly on a team run by Derek Jeter.

Right fielder Peter O’Brien never played for the Bronx Bombers, but was a prospect for them once. Remember when the Marlins had Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, the last two National League MVPs? Anyway, they’re terrible.

Pick: Under


Milwaukee Brewers

O/U: 85.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 88

FanGraphs projection: 81

It’s inexcusable that the Brewers, who went to Game 7 of the NLCS last year, did nothing to address their starting rotation over the winter. That said, Milwaukee did add Yasmani Grandal and brought back Mike Moustakas in free agency. This is a tricky call because so much depends on a starting staff full of question marks and how fresh they can keep the bullpen.

Pick: Over


Minnesota Twins

O/U: 83

Baseball Prospectus projection: 83

FanGraphs projection: 83

The key number here is 83, clearly, but if you turn that around to 38, you get Nelson Cruz’s age, and maybe you don’t feel so good, even though he does have 203 home runs over the last five seasons. How long does that late-career power surge last? How does the bullpen hold up? How weird is it going to be seeing the Twins without Joe Mauer?

Pick: Under


New York Mets

O/U: 86.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 87

FanGraphs projection: 85

If it were an organization other than the Mets, you would fully expect that adding Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jed Lowrie and Wilson Ramos would have a real and substantial impact. It probably will. Just, beware, because this is the Mets, and, like, a blimp could crash into the stadium and maim Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard at any moment.

Pick: Over


 Aaron Judge

New York Yankees

O/U: 96

Baseball Prospectus projection: 97

FanGraphs projection: 95

This is a very high number to reach, but also the Yankees won 100 games last year despite not having Aaron Judge for two-and-a-half months, and even without landing a marquee free agent, they re-signed trade deadline acquisitions J.A. Happ and Zack Britton, traded for James Paxton, and also added Adam Ottavino, Troy Tulowitzki and D.J. LeMahieu. This team is stupid good.

Pick: Over


Oakland Athletics

O/U: 82.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 79

FanGraphs projection: 81

Who cares about the win total? Where’s the line on Khris Davis putting up a .247 batting average for a fifth consecutive season? The rotation is bad, the bullpen is good, the lineup is not as good as a year ago but still features lots of power with Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman, and Matt Olson.

Basically, the season series between the A’s and the Angels should decide the over/under for both teams.

Pick: Over


Philadelphia Phillies

O/U: 88

Baseball Prospectus projection: 85

FanGraphs projection: 81

The line set for the Phillies seemed to price in the likelihood of Bryce Harper signing in the City of Brotherly Love. It's happened, but he’s not going to have a full spring training, and there’s a pretty solid chance that 2019 is the worst year he has out of any.

Adding J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and Jean Segura is cool. It’s just not “this team is suddenly eight wins better” cool.

Pick: Under


Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U: 78.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 80

FanGraphs projection: 80

The front three in the rotation – Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer and Trevor Williams – are good enough to cover for an otherwise bad roster, except the Pirates don’t have an otherwise bad roster, because they’ve got Felipe Vazquez closing games, and a lineup that includes the outfield of Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, plus a very underrated infield.

Lonnie Chisenhall was a really good pickup as a Swiss Army knife kind of player.

Pick: Over


 Manny Machado

San Diego Padres

O/U: 78.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 79

FanGraphs projection: 79

Manny Machado is a huge signing! The Padres are very close to pulling off their rebuild and becoming contenders. It could even happen this year if some guys make the leap a little earlier than expected. But the rotation is still Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Robbie Erlin, Brett Kennedy and Jacob Nix. Give it another year.

Pick: Under


San Francisco Giants

O/U: 73.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 72

FanGraphs projection: 76

Bruce Bochy is going to go to the Hall of Fame. His final season as manager of the Giants is going to be bad. Multiple misfires in free agency will do that to a team.

Pick: Under


Seattle Mariners

O/U: 70.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 72

FanGraphs projection: 73

Felix Hernandez is 32. He was godawful last year. But is it crazy to think that he bounces back at least a bit, that Yusei Kikuchi comes strong in his first year over from Japan, that Justus Sheffield shows why the Mariners traded James Paxton for him, and that Mike Leake is better in his second full season in the American League?

Or that at least a couple of those things happen? The lineup isn’t that bad. The bullpen probably is. But a mediocre team in an American League that’s loaded with trash shouldn’t be out here losing 90 games.

Pick: Over


St. Louis Cardinals

O/U: 87.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 85

FanGraphs projection: 86

There’s a non-zero chance that Yadier Molina, still a fine catcher at 36, is the worst everyday player the Cardinals have. A lot is going to depend on Miles Mikolas being as good as he was last year atop a rotation with a ton of health questions, and what exactly the Cardinals get from Jordan Hicks and Andrew Miller in the bullpen.

Pick: Under


Tampa Bay Rays

O/U: 83.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 85

FanGraphs projection: 85

Does anyone know how to account for regular usage of an opener when projecting a full season? How about the Rays’ ability to turn other teams’ trash into their own treasure? They could win 90 again and not have it be a surprise, and they could lose 90 and not have it be a surprise. But the former would be less of a surprise.

Pick: Over


Texas Rangers

O/U: 71.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 70

FanGraphs projection: 74

With Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Jeff Mathis and Hunter Pence, the Rangers are definitely the “wait, he plays for them now?” team of 2019. That’s generally not a thing you want to be. It’s fun watching Joey Gallo hit dingers.

Pick: Under


Toronto Blue Jays

O/U: 74.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 76

FanGraphs projection: 77

Nineteen games against the Orioles should be helpful. So should Vladimir Guerrero Jr., once the Blue Jays are done keeping him in the minors to prevent him from accruing service ti—uh, to let him work on his defense or something. In the Central, they’d have a shot. In the East, they’re toast.

Pick: Over


Washington Nationals

O/U: 89.5

Baseball Prospectus projection: 89

FanGraphs projection: 90

The Nationals are one of the few operations in D.C. that does business as if climate change really does threaten humanity’s continued existence beyond the next couple of years.

It’s not like they didn’t try to re-sign Bryce Harper, but with Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Adam Eaton in the outfield, it also was fine to let the former MVP go and add Patrick Corbin to the rotation instead, also picking up Brian Dozier to play second base. Last year was a letdown for the Nats. This year won’t be, though that still doesn’t mean they’ll win a playoff series.

Pick: Over


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