Advanced Football Betting Strategy

SHARE

Advanced Football Betting Strategy

Anyone can visit a sports bookmaker like Ladbrokes Sports or Paddy Power Sports and put a bet down on their favourite football team; it takes very little thought, analysis or strategy. Indeed, the vast majority of football bets are made on the back of an individual’s loyalty to a particular team. However, over the course of a season, it doesn’t make any financial sense to blindly back your preferred team simply because they’re playing. Instead, before the English football leagues resume in August, try to get to grips with the premise of ‘value’.

Value

Essentially, 'value' is determined by assessing what you think are the chances of a team’s victory against the prices that bookmakers are offering on that result. If you think a team has value, it is because you think the rewards of betting on them to win outweigh the risks.

You can work out a team’s value for any given match very easily, by following this method:

  • Estimate in a percentage what you think is the chance of a team winning – 50%, 75% etc.
  • Find the best decimal price for that team to win (decimals are easier than fractions when it comes to the maths!).
  • Multiply the percentage you’ve estimated with the decimal price.
  • Any result of 1.00 or greater means that the team has value and you should consider a bet.

Example | Euro 2012 - Italy V. Germany

So, if we were to take an example of this, let’s look at the recent Euro 2012 competition and the semi-final between Italy and Germany. Bookmakers before the match believed there could only be one winner; Paddy Power Sports were offering Germany at 10/11 and Ladbrokes Sports at 8/10. They had Italy to win at 7/2 and 15/4 respectively.

A lot of inexperienced punters would have viewed these odds and immediately thought twice about backing Italy. However, others will have looked at those prices and immediately seen a window of opportunity.

If we take the best odds proffered for an Italy win, the 15/4 offered by Ladbrokes Sports converts to 4.75. At that price, you only had to estimate that Italy had a 22% chance of winning the game to find value: 0.22 x 4.75 = 1.05.

That’s the equivalent of Italy winning the game only once if it was played five times over. Some German fans may have agreed with this assessment; the Germans were the only side in the competition to win all three group matches, had dismissed Greece in the quarter-final in some style and had the most in-form striker of the tournament in the form of Mario Gomez. Indeed, Germany were joint favourites with Spain to lift the trophy.

However, Italian fans would have looked at their side’s well-earned point against Spain, their steady progression through the group stage and a dominant display against England in the quarters. Despite the naysayers, Italy were unbeaten and looked dangerous in attack, particularly with Andrea Pirlo on top form.

All of these things will have been assessed by seasoned punters, and the more insightful will have concluded that backing Italy had value in it every single time. In the event, Italy won 2-1 in a virtuoso performance that merited much more the long odds given by Ladbrokes Sports and Paddy Power Sports before the game.

Head over to Coral Sports today and start using your advanced football betting strategy!

Recommended Betting Sites

*T&C's apply to each offer, click Bet Now for more details

Betting Strategy Articles


Bookies Lean Towards DeGale Bringing the WBC Belt Back to Britain
Bookies Lean Towards DeGale Bringing the WBC Belt Back to Britain

This weekend sees the long-awaited unification fight between James DeGale and Badou Jack to determine who is top dog in boxing’s super-middleweight division. Will DeGale back up his claim for a "massi ... Read More

Too Many Teams? Check Out What Teams Punters Should Back in the Africa Cup of Nations
Too Many Teams? Check Out What Teams Punters Should Back in the Africa Cup of Nations

It remains something of a hidden gem in the football calendar, but the biennial African Cup of Nations should really be a fixture in any self-respecting punter’s almanac. Why? Because some of the worl ... Read More

Top Bets to Consider During the Australian Open 2017
Top Bets to Consider During the Australian Open 2017

The first Grand Slam tennis tournament of 2017 kicks off 'Down Under' as hundreds of tennis players descend upon Melbourne, determined to start the New Year with a bang. The local spectators will be r ... Read More

Should Punters be Backing Underdog Clemson Against the Tide?
Should Punters be Backing Underdog Clemson Against the Tide?

Reigning champions Alabama Crimson Tide have surged through the competition to win their place in the College Football Playoff National Championship. The team they beat to claim the 2015 title, the Un ... Read More

Should Punters Trust Saban and the Tide to Repeat in College Football Playoffs 2016?
Should Punters Trust Saban and the Tide to Repeat in College Football Playoffs 2016?

Romanian pop artist Nicole Cherry is scheduled to perform at halftime during the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championships at the Raymond James Stadium in Florida, but what everyone really ... Read More

Top 10 Contenders for Christmas Number One 2016
Top 10 Contenders for Christmas Number One 2016

The battle for the Christmas Number One Single is as much a part of the festive season in the United Kingdom as mince pies and the Queen’s Speech. The festive charts have been dominated by X Factor wi ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

Betting Guides

Country Guide