Advanced Football Betting Strategy

SHARE

Advanced Football Betting Strategy

Anyone can visit a sports bookmaker like Ladbrokes Sports or Paddy Power Sports and put a bet down on their favourite football team; it takes very little thought, analysis or strategy. Indeed, the vast majority of football bets are made on the back of an individual’s loyalty to a particular team. However, over the course of a season, it doesn’t make any financial sense to blindly back your preferred team simply because they’re playing. Instead, before the English football leagues resume in August, try to get to grips with the premise of ‘value’.

Value

Essentially, 'value' is determined by assessing what you think are the chances of a team’s victory against the prices that bookmakers are offering on that result. If you think a team has value, it is because you think the rewards of betting on them to win outweigh the risks.

You can work out a team’s value for any given match very easily, by following this method:

  • Estimate in a percentage what you think is the chance of a team winning – 50%, 75% etc.
  • Find the best decimal price for that team to win (decimals are easier than fractions when it comes to the maths!).
  • Multiply the percentage you’ve estimated with the decimal price.
  • Any result of 1.00 or greater means that the team has value and you should consider a bet.

Example | Euro 2012 - Italy V. Germany

So, if we were to take an example of this, let’s look at the recent Euro 2012 competition and the semi-final between Italy and Germany. Bookmakers before the match believed there could only be one winner; Paddy Power Sports were offering Germany at 10/11 and Ladbrokes Sports at 8/10. They had Italy to win at 7/2 and 15/4 respectively.

A lot of inexperienced punters would have viewed these odds and immediately thought twice about backing Italy. However, others will have looked at those prices and immediately seen a window of opportunity.

If we take the best odds proffered for an Italy win, the 15/4 offered by Ladbrokes Sports converts to 4.75. At that price, you only had to estimate that Italy had a 22% chance of winning the game to find value: 0.22 x 4.75 = 1.05.

That’s the equivalent of Italy winning the game only once if it was played five times over. Some German fans may have agreed with this assessment; the Germans were the only side in the competition to win all three group matches, had dismissed Greece in the quarter-final in some style and had the most in-form striker of the tournament in the form of Mario Gomez. Indeed, Germany were joint favourites with Spain to lift the trophy.

However, Italian fans would have looked at their side’s well-earned point against Spain, their steady progression through the group stage and a dominant display against England in the quarters. Despite the naysayers, Italy were unbeaten and looked dangerous in attack, particularly with Andrea Pirlo on top form.

All of these things will have been assessed by seasoned punters, and the more insightful will have concluded that backing Italy had value in it every single time. In the event, Italy won 2-1 in a virtuoso performance that merited much more the long odds given by Ladbrokes Sports and Paddy Power Sports before the game.

Head over to Coral Sports today and start using your advanced football betting strategy!

Recommended Betting Sites

Secure Trusted Verified
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

Betting Strategy Articles


Bet Juve and City for Champions League Last 16 First Legs
Bet Juve and City for Champions League Last 16 First Legs

Champions League football bettors have a feast of action coming up between 13 February and 14 March, as the last 16 battle it out for a place in the quarter-finals. ... Read More

Consider Germany for Ski Jumping Events at Winter Olympics
Consider Germany for Ski Jumping Events at Winter Olympics

Ski jumping is one of the most thrilling events at the Winter Olympics. Poland’s Kamil Stoch is pegged as favourite for both the Normal Hill and Large Hill event, however there are other solid ... Read More

Canada and USA Weakened While Russia Strong for Ice Hockey
Canada and USA Weakened While Russia Strong for Ice Hockey

With a huge global fan base and elite leagues across the world, ice hockey is one of the Winter Olympics' premium betting events. However, the men's tournament has been turned upside down for ... Read More

Norway's Poised for Alpine Skiing Victories in Pyeongchang
Norway's Poised for Alpine Skiing Victories in Pyeongchang

Alpine skiing encompasses four exciting events during the Winter Olympics – Downhill Skiing, the Slalom, the Giant Slalom and the Super Giant Slalom (or Super-G). Norway is looking good on all ... Read More

Destiny Awaits Winter Olympians in a Freezing South Korea
Destiny Awaits Winter Olympians in a Freezing South Korea

The snowbound version of the Olympic Games kicks off on Friday February 9, and while it may lack the star names and the razzmatazz of its summer counterpart, the winter games are no less intriguing to ... Read More

UFC 221: Will Rockhold’s Calm Triumph Over Romero’s Storm?
UFC 221: Will Rockhold’s Calm Triumph Over Romero’s Storm?

The UFC will be raising its flag Down Under on February 10 when Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold battle it out for the interim middleweight title. With Whittaker out of the picture, UFC 221 will allow ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

Betting Guides

Country Guide

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Trading Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2018 GDC Trading Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Trading Limited.
Terms and Conditions   |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4AndroidGET IT ONfacebookDownload_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917twitter