Arkle Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Arkle Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

BEST 2021 ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

  • Won last time out
  • Rated 151+
  • No more than 4 chase starts
  • Last ran no more than 75 days ago
  • Aged between six and eight

Betting On 2021 Arkle Novices' Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Arkle Novices' Chase.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 Arkle Novices' Chases, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of the first chase of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

Scroll down to find out more about how the trends found him, and details of all the other Arkle Novices' Chase trends beyond the top five.


Get the latest Arkle Novices' Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Arkle Novices' Chase?

On the trends last year, only Rouge Vif and Notebook made the Arkle Novices' Chase shortlist, with Rouge Vif going on to finish third to trends bust Put The Kettle On.

Both shortlisted horses hit all the 'Top 5' trends and Notebook had just won wo of the ‘Key Races’ (see below) - the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at Leopardstown and the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase.

1 winner 2 places from 9

Both were lining up fit, but not over-raced, having had just four chase starts that term, and had lofty ratings, but there was concern that Rouge Vif had done all his winning on much sharper tracks.

Notebook was a worthy favourite, and top race trainer Henry De Bromhead had no explanation for his below par run, though he had also been well-beaten at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival

For trends followers, alarm bells rang for Put The Kettle On when looking at her lack of a recent run, and her lowly rating of just 141. She had also been winning over further, and had had a busier season than the last 10 winners.

The one pointer towards her though was that her last race was a win at Cheltenam in Graded company. She had to be considered on the 'Place Trends'.

Second Fakir D'oudairies was too young at five, and had not won last time out, which is a must-have for Arkle winners.

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KEY ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged between five and eight
  • Had two or more starts in that season
  • Were running within 90 days of their last run
  • Finished in the first two last time out

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Won last time out
  • Were aged six or seven
  • Had won at least one chase

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were Irish or French-bred
  • Last ran no more than 75 days ago
  • Had won on a left-handed track
  • Had run at Cheltenham before, five winning
  • Had run no more than four times over fences
  • Had run between three and five times in that season
  • Were trained by Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson or Henry De Bromhead

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Had won a Graded race, five at Grade 1 level
  • Last ran no more than 62 days ago
  • Were officially rated higher than 150

The last 29 win and place positions

29/29 placed horses

  • Were aged between six and eight
  • Had won on a galloping track

28/29 placed horses

  • Had run between three and seven times in the last 12 months
  • Ran no more than 90 days ago
  • Finished in the first three last time out

27/29 placed horses

  • Won one of their last three starts
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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Arkle Novices Chase)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Irish Arkle (G1)LeopardstownFootpad (2018), Douvan (2016), Un Des Sceaux (2015)Fakir D'oudairies (2020), Us And Them (2019), Trifolium (2014), Realt Dubh (2011)
Kingmaker Novices' Chase (G2)WarwickNoneRouge Vif (2020)
Game Spirit Chase (G2)NewburyAltior (2017), Sprinter Sacre (2012)
Racing Post Novice Chase (G1)LeopardstownNoneOrdinary World (2017), Sizing John (2016), Champagne Fever (2014), Baily Green (2013)
Wayward Lad Novices' Chase (G2)KemptonSimonsig (2013)God's Own (2015)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L Places
Willie Mullins 9 4 44 -0.25 1
Nicky Henderson 9 3 33 -4.49 3
Henry De Bromhead 10 1 10 7.00 2
Philip Hobbs 3 1 33 4.00 0

How Put The Kettle On Won 2020's Arkle Novices' Chase

Unraced for 144 days, Put The Kettle On led almost every inch of the 2020 Arkle Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Bounding away from the penultimate fence, the mare went two lengths clear of Fakir D'oudairies, and though he did rally up the hill, he proved no match.


2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2020 ARKLE NOVICES CHASE RESULT

  1. Put The Kettle On 16/1
  2. Fakir D'oudairies 3/1
  3. Rouge Vif 9/1

Jockey Aidan Coleman pressed Put The Kettle On to a length and a half victory over JP McManus's five-year-old, to give her trainer Henry de Bromhead a second Arkle win.

Rouge Vif toughed it out to take third place from Global Citizen by a head, but that pair finished nearly 19 and a half lengths behind the winner.

Cheltenham 2021 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase

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