Australian Open 2019 Women's Final Betting Tips: Back Osaka

Australian Open 2019 Women's Final Betting Tips: Back Osaka

The Australian Open women’s final is set. Naomi Osaka vs Petra Kvitova will battle it out on Saturday night for the first Grand Slam tournament title of the year.

Tennis betting opportunities will be abundant for the first major final of the year. The two women should bring forward a very even match, which could mean difficulty for those trying to bet on the Australian Open.

Naomi Osaka

The 21-year-old is a 21/20 underdog in her second ever Grand Slam final. The Japanese sensation won the 2018 US Open in her first trip to a Grand Slam final, and is looking to make it two major titles in a row.

Osaka’s path to the final started with her being named the tournament’s #4 seed. By the quarterfinal, she was the highest seed remaining in the tournaments as both #1 and #2 Halep and Kerber both were dumped out in the round of 16.

Osaka’s Australian Open started with a pair of straight set victories over Magda Linette and Tamara Zidansek. Her first test came against #28 seed Su Wei Hsieh, which saw Osaka drop her first set of the tournament. She would also go three sets against #13 seed Anastasija Sevastova in the round of 16.

She then had to take down two top 10 seeds in a row: #6 Elina Svitolina in straight sets, followed by #7 Karolina Pliskova in three sets. The young star has played a bit more tennis than her upcoming opponent, but Osaka’s durability is quickly becoming one of her defining traits. While she did have to pull out of the WTA Finals due to a hamstring injury, she’s returned as strong as ever.

Petra Kvitova

The Czech star is back in the spotlight after her first stint at the top from 2010-2014, and she's a 3/4 favorite in her first final since Wimbledon 2014. Kvitova would go on to win that year's Wimbledon, but since has only made the quarterfinals of the US Open in 2015 and 2017 since then.

The 28 year-old had a long road back to the finals after a home invasion in late 2016 left her with ligament and nerve damage to her left hand. Her original recovery time was expected to be 6 months, but she returned to practice after only 4 months of recovery time.

It’s possible to say that Kvitova’s path to the final has been an easier one, as she’s only played once seeded player up until this point (#15 seed Ashleigh Barty in the quarterfinal). However, she’s still playing some of the best tennis of her career. Defeating Danielle Rose Collins in straight sets is, surprisingly, no joke, as Collins utterly steamrolled world #2 Angelique Kerber in the Round of 16.

Regardless of her opponents, Kvitova hasn’t given up a set yet. Her pre-Australian Open tournaments probably should have served as a warning sign, as Kvitova took down Kerber in the Sydney International in straight sets en route to her first title of the 2019 season.

Who to Back

That’s a TOUGH question.

Neither woman can be declared a clear favorite. Usually one player can be considered at least a slight favorite in things other than odds, but Kvitova is the odds favorite, and that’s about it.

As mentioned above, Unibet is offering Kvitova as the favorite at 3/4, Osaka the underdog at 21/20. The only tournament so far featuring the two women in the same draw was the Brisbane International, but they didn’t end up playing each other. Kvitova lost in the round of 16, while Osaka exited in the semifinal.

If you have to pick between the two women, the bet is Osaka at 21/20. She’s currently playing like Serena Williams with the kind of energy that only a youthful player can muster.

Osaka managed 15 aces in her match against Pliskova, only double faulting 3 times. Kvitova, in her semifinal, had 4 aces and double faults a piece. Additionally, 58% of Osaka’s 96 points won were off winners in her semifinal. Kvitova, in other hand, only won 44% of her 68 points from winners.

Kvitova’s advantage will be if Osaka’s first serve fails her. In their semifinal matches, Kvitova’s first serve was in 60% of the time to Osaka’s 58%, but Osaka won 81% of her first service points to Kvitova’s 75%. Kvitova’s advantage is in the second serve, where she won 54% to Osaka’s troublesome 41%.

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