Bahrain GP 2019 Betting Preview: Six Tips To Consider
- No Safety Car Deployed – 11/10 with Paddy Power
- Winning Margin to be Under 4.5 Seconds – 17/20 with William Hill
The Bahrain Grand Prix has not always followed on immediately from the season opening race in Australia but no matter how you look at the stats, there is every indication the form from that street course (where overtaking is nigh impossible) to this circuit (which is renowned for its wide-open spaces and safe wide run-off areas) will be upheld.
In 2016 Nico Rosberg won both races when Bahrain was the second race of the season.
In 2018 the races were back-to back again when Sebastian Vettel won both as he did in 2017 when Bahrain was the third race on the calendar. 2015 was Hamilton’s turn, he too won both contests despite Bahrain being the fourth race on that season’s roster.
Hamilton Will Be Superior Once Again
But we are predicting a partial change in 2019 with a Mercedes winning in Bahrain but not the one driven by Australia winner Valtteri Bottas. Yes, the Finn’s Melbourne victory was visually impressive but Hamilton was driving an injured car (floor damage) and there is simply no way he has emerged from the winter break a 30sec (per-race) slower driver than when he headed off on his holidays.
Hamilton finished ahead of Bottas in 17 of the 2018’s twenty race starts (in which both drivers went the full race distance) for good reason. He is a superior pilot and should prove that baring incident this weekend.
With the red Ferrari winter testing times proving to be a red herring in Australia and the Red Bull cars are likely to struggle here too – they have never finished on the Bahrain podium since the start of the hybrid era in 2014 – so Bottas looks the sensible option for the forecast spot.
And given Ferrari new boy Charles Leclerc was not allowed to challenge Sebastian Vettel in Australia, the German looks the tricast link.
But there are loads of markets that can be played on this race – and should be!
No Safety Car
A Safety Car has only been required here in three of the 14 races since the circuit joined the calendar. Those wide run off areas lessen the likelihood of accidents while broken down cars can easily be parked away from the racing line.
Additionally, as there has not been any regulation changes to engines or gearboxes in quite a while, the cars are becoming incredibly reliable mechanically.
Everything factored-in, Paddy Power’s 11/10 about NO Safety Car looks an enormous price verging on an old-fashioned ‘price rick’.
Small Winning Margin
The winning margin line has been set at 4.5sec and you can back the ‘unders’ at 17/20 with William Hill. Given eight of the 14 races here have been won by under 3.5sec that proposition has some real merit.
This long 5.4km circuit sorts out the men from the boys as normally only a handful of cars finish on the lead lap; the prediction is six.
But, allied to the prediction of no Safety Car inducing accidents, it means the prospect of more cars finishing the race distance after ambling along a lap or, in some cases, two behind.
There have been 16 or more finishers here a dozen times and since that 2014 hybrid watershed we have seen exactly 17 cars complete the race distance four times.
Therein I have to recommend the 2/1 (Bet365) about 16.5 or more finishers this Sunday.
Pair of top-10’s for Haas
Team Hass qualified sixth and seventh in Australia and it looks like they head the so-called ‘B group’, which is the cars other than Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes.
Most F1 betting sites are going around 6/4 about Kevin Magnussen (qualified seventh and finished fifth here last year) to finish in the top-6 and 7/4 his Haas teammate, Romain Grosjean, doing the same.
Alternatively, you can back both cars to simply complete the race distance at 8/13 or take the better odds of 10/11 about them both finishing in the top-10 (a ‘points finish’).
Personally, I like the latter as Magnussen finished a solid sixth in Melbourne and only a loose wheel nut which led to a race retirement robbed Romain Grosjean of a top-10 finish.
- Lewis Hamilton to win
- Forecast Hamilton to beat Bottas
- No Safety Car
- Under 4.5sec winning margin
- 16.5 or more race finishers
- Both Haas cars to finish in the points (a top-10 finish)
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