Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 5th, 2021

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BEST 2021 BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

• Aged five or six
• Last run at least 31 days ago
• Finished first two last time out
• Won twice on galloping tracks
• Won over at least 2m4f

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, as they did last year when highlighting Envoi Allen.

Scroll down to find out how the trends found him last year, and read full details of all the other Ballymore Novices' Hurdle trends, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Ballymore Novices' Hurdle?

The 2020 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle field was a dream for trends followers, as the three-strong shortlist included the first and third finishers in the Cheltenham Festival test.

The 4/7 favourite Envoi Allen was first on the list having won a 'Key Race' in the Grade 1 Slaney Novice Hurdle. He had won over 2m4f, won six times on galloping tracks, and had a good break before the Festival.

He'd also managed to get three runs in that season, which is the vital experience that the trends call for - and as a welcome bonus, he was unbeaten in eight outings, including the 2019 Cheltenham Champion Bumper.

Second home was his Gordon Elliott-trained stablemate Easywork, who did not make the trends shortlist because he did not fit all of the important 'Top 5'

Though he had won two hurdle races, and over 2m4f, his wins had not come on courses officially described as galloping.

Third The Big Getaway had won the required two races on galloping tracks, and had won a hurdle race over 2m3f by 17 lengths. He was a clear pick, fitting all the '15-Year' and '10-Year' trends, and being trained by top race trainer Willie Mullins.

The final horse trends highlighted was fourth The Big Breakaway. He fit all the exposure and experience trends, having won twice over hurdles at galloping tracks, including 2m4f.

He had also been kept fresh, with a light campaign and a break of 84 days before the Cheltenham Festival.

Trends show though that whilst winners of this race do arrive fresher than for other races at Cheltenham, the last 10 winners last ran no more than 75 days ago, so perhaps he was too fresh?

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KEY BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged five or six - nine of the last 10 were aged six
• Had not run for at least 31 days
• Finished in the first three last time out, 11 winning

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Last ran between 31-75 days ago
• Finished in the first two last time out
• Had won over at least 2m3f
• Won at least twice on a track officially described as 'galloping'
• Had run 2-4 times in novice hurdles
• Were officially rated 142 or higher, the last nine rated above 145
• Were beaten over hurdles a maximum of twice - eight being beaten once or never

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Won, or were beaten no more than a neck, last time out
• Had won over at least 2m4f
• Had won two or three hurdle races
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Last ran in a novice hurdle
• Had not run at Cheltenham before

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Won last time out
• Last ran in a Graded hurdle

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Had run no more than seven times in the last 12 months
• Were running within 90 days of their last start
• Were officially rated 139 or higher

29/30 placed horses

• Finished in the first two last time out
• Had won on a galloping track
• Had run no more than four times that season

28/30 placed horses

• Had won on a left-handed course

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle)

KEY RACE TRAINERS (10 years)

How Envoi Allen Won 2020's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Unbeaten and already the Champion Hurdle winner, Envoi Allen was no match for his Ballymore Novices' Hurdle rivals.

1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE RESULT

1. Envoi Allen 4/7f
2. Easywork 12/1
3. The Big Getaway 9/1

Sent off the 4-7 favourite, the six-year-old cruised to the lead before the last, and ran on readily for jockey Davy Russell to win by four and a quarter lengths.

Trainer Gordon Elliott also saddled the second, Easywork, with the Willie Mullins-trained The Big Getaway finishing third, beaten a full eight lengths by Cheveley Park Stud's Envoi Allen.

Cheltenham 2021 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Festival Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Champion Bumper