Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 7th, 2019

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TOP 5 BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

• Aged five or six
• Last run at least 31 days ago
• Finished first two last time out
• Won over at least 2m4f
• Won twice on galloping tracks

Get the latest Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Ballymore Novices' Hurdle?

There were four horses that stood out on trends in the 2019 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, these included the first and second in an interesting renewal of the Cheltenham Festival test.

The 3/1 favourite Battleoverdoyen was first on the list having won a 'Key Race' in the Grade 1 Slaney Novice Hurdle. He had won over 2m4f, won on galloping tracks, left-handed tracks, and had a good break before the Festival.

He'd also managed to get three runs in that season, albeit only two of them hurdles, but it looked vital experience that the trends call for. However, trainer Gordon Elliott's horses were not firing for much of Cheltenham, and he was well-beaten when pulled up before the last.

Second on trends was the impeccably-bred Champ, the only other Grade 1 winner in the field, who had won over 2m5f. He had been impressive in four successive wins in the build up, and had 74 days off before the Ballymore, but did not have the strength to pass City Island.

City Island was third on trends, but first on the day. His lack of a run in Graded company marked him down, but otherwise he ticked every box, and had a big trends on Champ as he was only six. Champ was seven - only two horses aged older than six have won the race since 1971.

The final horse trends highlighted was Easy Game for top race trainer Willie Mullins. Having run far more than a traditional winner, the five-year-old was a tentative pick on the strength of his Grade 2 win over 2m4f, and the fact he arrived fresh - though maybe it turned out 87 days was too fresh as he finished eighth.

KEY BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged five or six
• Had not run for at least 31 days
• Finished in the first three last time out, 11 winning

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 142 or higher, the last eight rated above 145
• Finished in the first two last time out
• Won one of their last three starts
• Had won over at least 2m3f
• Won at least twice on a galloping track
• Had run 2-4 times in novice hurdles
• Last ran between 31-75 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Won, or were beaten no more than a neck, last time out
• Had won two or three hurdle races
• Had won over at least 2m4f
• Were beaten over hurdles a maximum of twice
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Last ran in a novice hurdle
• Had not run at Cheltenham before

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Won last time out
• Last ran in a Graded hurdle

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Had run no more than seven times in the last 12 months
• Were running within 90 days of their last start

29/30 placed horses

• Were officially rated 139 or higher
• Finished in the first two last time out
• Had won on a galloping track

28/30 placed horses

• Had run no more than four times that season
• Had won on a left-handed course

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle)

KEY RACE TRAINERS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Preview

How City Island Won 2019's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Lightly-tried City Island sprung a shock in the 2019 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, when giving trainer Martin Brassil and owners Bernadine and Sean Mulryan a first Cheltenham Festival win.

The Mulryans, who also sponsored the race, had seen their six-year-old win at Leopardstown and Naas with ease, but in ordinary company, giving little indications as to whether the son of Court Cave could step up at the Festival

1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE RESULT

1. City Island 8/1
2. Champ 9/2
3. Bright Forecast 25/1

Ridden by Mark Walsh he did just that, showing maturity beyond his years to romp to a two-length victory over the well-fancied Champ. JP McManus's second had gone unbeaten in his last four runs, but won only on much flatter courses, and went on to land a second Grade 1 at Aintree, stepped up to 3m.

The third Bright Forecast stayed on best of the rest to record a career-best effort, having been second in Grade 2 company last time out over 2m. It was also a first try over the distance of 2m5f.

Cheltenham 2020 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper