Baseball Betting Strategy: Runs Over/Under Strategy

SHARE

Baseball Betting Strategy: Runs Over/Under Strategy

Everyone talks about backing the underdog in baseball, and there's no doubt that it's a system with potential, but total runs is a mathematician's market with plenty of profit to be had.

A War of Numbers

Since the advent of the Moneyball system, where teams became much more shrewd in 'buying runs' with their player purchases and team strategies, statistics have been very much at the core of baseball. Teams have countered the buying of runs, bases and hits by looking at strikes, and other defensive stats: and a war of numbers has ensued.

Runs Over/Under Betting

The great thing for gamblers is that these numbers become our weapons in predicting their performance. And identifying teams to bet on in the runs over/under market will normally depend on a comparison of teams' batting average and earned run average (ERA), which are, respectively, the average hits divided by the number of bats and runs given up by the pitchers per nine innings.

Spotting Teams with Strong Defense, Weak Scoring or Vice Versa

Take the Atlanta Braves, for example - at the time of writing, they sat top of the MLB table in terms of ERA with an impressive 2.04. To put that into context, second-placed Milwaukee's ERA is 2.58, and the worst ERA in the league was Arizona on 5.17. Atlanta's defensive approach is so powerful that they have the second best record in MLB so far in the 2014 season, despite having the fourth worst scoring record.

Why is this important for the runs over/under market? Because spotting teams with a strong defensive record and weak scoring record, or vice versa, is a great way to spot games that will be especially high or low scoring; and that's where the value lies. Odds usually hover around evens for most bets, rarely rising in excess of 2/1 or falling below 1/2, so finding extreme performers is one of the keys to unlocking value.

Comparing Stats

Once you've identified teams that are worth betting on, it's then a matter of comparing the key statistics with their opponents. Take the Colorado Rockies at the Arizona Diamondbacks on 28 April as an example. Colorado boast the best batting average in the league. Arizona, despite having the worst record, are still 20th (of 30). On the defensive side, Colorado's 4.13 ERA places them 21st and Arizona are rock bottom. That sets the scene for a high scorer, and a wise punter would have taken over 9.5 runs at 7/5, because the match finished 8-5 to the Rockies.

Shorthand Approach

If you're looking to build a quick, simple betting system without the excess statistical analysis, there is a relatively reliable shorthand too. Any MLB standings worth their salt will show you a team's runs scored and runs against. Use these to work out the runs per game for and against, then, when two teams face off, simply average their averages for a good idea of where the score may finish.

This system can be quickly and easily tweaked for accuracy by factoring in position as an extra point for or against. For example, for every five places that separates the teams in the standings, award a point to the top ranking team. Playing with simple adjustments like these will help make regular returns in this surprisingly predictable sport.

And for all the latest odds, visit Betway Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

*T&C's apply to each offer, click Play Now for more details

Betting Strategy Articles


Bookies Lean Towards DeGale Bringing the WBC Belt Back to Britain

This weekend sees the long-awaited unification fight between James DeGale and Badou Jack to determine who is top dog in boxing’s super-middleweight division. Will DeGale back up his claim for a "massi ... Read More

Too Many Teams? Check Out What Teams Punters Should Back in the Africa Cup of Nations

It remains something of a hidden gem in the football calendar, but the biennial African Cup of Nations should really be a fixture in any self-respecting punter’s almanac. Why? Because some of the worl ... Read More

Top Bets to Consider During the Australian Open 2017

The first Grand Slam tennis tournament of 2017 kicks off 'Down Under' as hundreds of tennis players descend upon Melbourne, determined to start the New Year with a bang. The local spectators will be r ... Read More

Should Punters be Backing Underdog Clemson Against the Tide?

Reigning champions Alabama Crimson Tide have surged through the competition to win their place in the College Football Playoff National Championship. The team they beat to claim the 2015 title, the Un ... Read More

Should Punters Trust Saban and the Tide to Repeat in College Football Playoffs 2016?

Romanian pop artist Nicole Cherry is scheduled to perform at halftime during the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championships at the Raymond James Stadium in Florida, but what everyone really ... Read More

Top 10 Contenders for Christmas Number One 2016

The battle for the Christmas Number One Single is as much a part of the festive season in the United Kingdom as mince pies and the Queen’s Speech. The festive charts have been dominated by X Factor wi ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

Betting Guides

Country Guide