Baseball Betting Strategy: Runs Over/Under Strategy

SHARE

Baseball Betting Strategy: Runs Over/Under Strategy

Everyone talks about backing the underdog in baseball, and there's no doubt that it's a system with potential, but total runs is a mathematician's market with plenty of profit to be had.

A War of Numbers

Since the advent of the Moneyball system, where teams became much more shrewd in 'buying runs' with their player purchases and team strategies, statistics have been very much at the core of baseball. Teams have countered the buying of runs, bases and hits by looking at strikes, and other defensive stats: and a war of numbers has ensued.

Runs Over/Under Betting

The great thing for gamblers is that these numbers become our weapons in predicting their performance. And identifying teams to bet on in the runs over/under market will normally depend on a comparison of teams' batting average and earned run average (ERA), which are, respectively, the average hits divided by the number of bats and runs given up by the pitchers per nine innings.

Spotting Teams with Strong Defense, Weak Scoring or Vice Versa

Take the Atlanta Braves, for example - at the time of writing, they sat top of the MLB table in terms of ERA with an impressive 2.04. To put that into context, second-placed Milwaukee's ERA is 2.58, and the worst ERA in the league was Arizona on 5.17. Atlanta's defensive approach is so powerful that they have the second best record in MLB so far in the 2014 season, despite having the fourth worst scoring record.

Why is this important for the runs over/under market? Because spotting teams with a strong defensive record and weak scoring record, or vice versa, is a great way to spot games that will be especially high or low scoring; and that's where the value lies. Odds usually hover around evens for most bets, rarely rising in excess of 2/1 or falling below 1/2, so finding extreme performers is one of the keys to unlocking value.

Comparing Stats

Once you've identified teams that are worth betting on, it's then a matter of comparing the key statistics with their opponents. Take the Colorado Rockies at the Arizona Diamondbacks on 28 April as an example. Colorado boast the best batting average in the league. Arizona, despite having the worst record, are still 20th (of 30). On the defensive side, Colorado's 4.13 ERA places them 21st and Arizona are rock bottom. That sets the scene for a high scorer, and a wise punter would have taken over 9.5 runs at 7/5, because the match finished 8-5 to the Rockies.

Shorthand Approach

If you're looking to build a quick, simple betting system without the excess statistical analysis, there is a relatively reliable shorthand too. Any MLB standings worth their salt will show you a team's runs scored and runs against. Use these to work out the runs per game for and against, then, when two teams face off, simply average their averages for a good idea of where the score may finish.

This system can be quickly and easily tweaked for accuracy by factoring in position as an extra point for or against. For example, for every five places that separates the teams in the standings, award a point to the top ranking team. Playing with simple adjustments like these will help make regular returns in this surprisingly predictable sport.

And for all the latest odds, visit Betway Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


Experts Pick Which US Grand Prix Odds to Target in 2017
Experts Pick Which US Grand Prix Odds to Target in 2017

After months of hard-fought battles on the track and in the pits, Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes can claim both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships this weekend in Texas at US Grand Prix with th ... Read More

Find All the Best WTA Finals Betting Odds for 2017
Find All the Best WTA Finals Betting Odds for 2017

The race for the WTA Finals title gets under way on October 22, but even before the action begins there’s been something of an upset. Despite holding on to a qualification place earlier in the season, ... Read More

MLB Playoffs 2017 are Jam-Packed with Outright Value Bets
MLB Playoffs 2017 are Jam-Packed with Outright Value Bets

Now that the one-game Wild Card playoffs are over, the Wild Card 5-game series are set to kick off the "real" MLB playoffs. With so much parody among this year's playoff teams, the outright betting ma ... Read More

Super League Grand Final Odds Leaning Towards Gale’s Glory
Super League Grand Final Odds Leaning Towards Gale’s Glory

It’s first versus second as top of the table Castleford Tigers take on the Leeds Rhinos in the Super League Grand Final. With Luke Gale recently securing this year's 'Man of Steel' Award, bookies are ... Read More

Japanese Grand Prix 2017 Has F1 Bettors Salivating at Odds
Japanese Grand Prix 2017 Has F1 Bettors Salivating at Odds

Formula One punters turn their attention to Japan at the weekend, as the drivers get set to race at Suzuka International Racing Course on 8 October. The race follows on from a tense Grand Prix betting ... Read More

UFC 216 Betting Market Offering Odds Punters Cannot Miss
UFC 216 Betting Market Offering Odds Punters Cannot Miss

The build up to any UFC fight is normally full of drama and this upcoming Heavyweight Championship bout between Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee is no exception. Read on to find out why those looking to be ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide