Breeders’ Cup 2018 Early Value Bets For Top Second-Day Races
- Bet Mendelssohn in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 10-1 with Betfair.
- Bet Glorious Empire in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at 25-1 with Betfair.
- Bet Stormy Liberal in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at 6-1 with Betfair.
- Bet Abel Tasman in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at 4-1 with Betfair.
The races just a month away, but there’s plenty for Breeders’ Cup betting fans to get excited about.
The Friday racing that weekend in November has been dubbed “Future Stars Friday,” which we’ve taken an early look at. Here’s some things to consider for the Saturday races.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Early Odds & Pick
The Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint is home to one of the shortest-priced favorites of the entire weekend, Marley’s Freedom.
The Baffert trained filly has come to life this year with three consecutive Graded stakes wins since moving to his barn, but at 2-1 on Betfair it’s a tough price to swallow especially with the big payoffs this race has given us in recent years.
At 4-1 on Betfair, Finley’sluckycharm is tough to pass up. She is six of seven in her starts at Churchill and will be overlooked by many given her poor run last time out. It looks as though she ran bad because of the lack of time from her prior win.
Looking at her lifetime form she does well with two plus months between runs, something she’s getting going into the Breeders’ Cup.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Early Odds & Pick
It’s crazy to look at the current market on the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and see the lack of respect for the 2017 winner, Stormy Liberal. Europeans will always take money in any turf event but the gap in the market between Battaash and Stormy Liberal is wild.
Stormy Liberal is riding a three-race win streak, including a recent Grade 3 win last week at Santa Anita. Drayden Van Dyke is having a career year and has ridden this horse better than anyone to date.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Early Odds & Pick
In another feeling of shock, in recommending a short-priced Ante Post wager, I do think that 2-1 on Catalina Cruiser in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile will turn out to be value when compared to his race day odds.
There are no heavy hitters in this division right now and I cannot envision one appearing out of thin air in the next month. Any of the horses that could have run with him have been retired in recent months, so taking 2-1 at Betfair is not a bad approach a month out.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Early Odds & Pick
There’s a big price to be had here. Sistercharlie is always right there, so if you can get 7-2 on Betfair in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, that is beyond solid.
Quidura though, who is 14-1 right now on Betfair, is sitting on a Grade 1 win this Saturday at Keeneland in the Jenny Wiley. She is also trained by Chad Brown, so get this price at Betfair before the weekend.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint Early Odds & Pick
The Breeders’ Cup Sprint has an abundance of value surrounding its division a month out. Imperial Hint is and will be the shortpriced favorite leading up to the first Saturday in November.
But with proven Grade 1 sprinters at big value, I would suggest getting a price now. Limousine Liberal is fantastic at Churchill, he has won his last five races there. Also he’s 3-for-3 at Churchill on an off-track.
Breeders’ Cup Mile Early Odds & Pick
One of the marquee races each year is the Breeders’ Cup Mile. It always seems to bridge the “turf talent gap” between the U.S. and Europe due to the distance.
This year it’s tough to point towards a dominant Euro, at least right now. If you could tell me with certainty Recoletos is coming to the Mile, I would go in that direction -- two turns is something I think he would really take to.
I’m uncertain about the U.S. horses, which could quickly change this weekend after the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. Wesley Ward’s Bound For Nowhere put together a top performance at Kentucky Downs to win the $750,000 Tourist Mile as a follow up to a huge run at Royal Ascot in the Diamond Jubilee to finish third.
He runs in the Shadwell Turf Mile this weekend and a big run will certainly cause his odds to fall in the weeks to the Breeders’ Cup.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff Early Odds & Pick
Trust Bob Baffert. It’s that simple.
The Distaff division was completely shaken up over the last two weekends. The leading 3-year-old filly Monomoy Girl was handed a polarizing DQ from a G1 win, which then gave Midnight Bisou said G1 in a year-long rivalry that has been fairly one sided to Monomoy Girl.
Abel Tasman then ran poorly in a G1 at Santa Anita a week later that left everyone feeling something has to be wrong with Baffert’s multiple Grade 1 winner. Because of her performance her price has drifted.
Baffert has come out and said nothing is wrong with her physically after extensive exams. Mike Smith her jockey said she wasn’t herself in the warmups and that an illness had been going around the Baffert camp in recent weeks, something she showed no signs of in the days leading up to her flop.
Take the inflated 4-1 price on Betfair and trust that Baffert will have Abel Tasman right come race day for the Distaff.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Early Odds & Pick
I just cannot envision backing Enable or Roaring Lion at 9-4 on Betfair right now. Too many unknowns. Look at a horse such as a Glorious Empire, who is trading at 25-1 on Betfair and obviously completely ignored.
This horse has found a home racing long distances which have equaled consecutive Graded wins. Look back to the 1998 BC Turf at Churchill, Buck’s Boy wire-to-wire, yet at a much larger price.
Breeders’ Cup Classic Early Odds & Pick
Don’t hold the Derby against Mendelssohn.
Mendelssohn has redeemed himself in his recent races, especially the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He hung around after sitting next to an unrealistic pace, plus it was a one turn race. He will be far better off at the two turn 1 1/4 mile.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Bet £10 Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365
Bet £10, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
50% Deposit Bonus up to £100 Promo Code: FBWELS18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New UK customers only; 6x wager requirement with 90 day expiry; Only sports bets contribute to wagering; Min. 2 selections at 1.4 min odds per selection; Max £100 per bet. 18+. T&C's Apply. Please bet responsibly. begambleaware.org
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.