It seems like everyone is so unsure of this race that we are gravitating towards what we do in Breeders’ Cup turf events -- a European invader. Polydream, the 5/1 morning line favorite at Betfair, comes from the same connections that gave us Goldikova.
Polydream is trained by Freddie Head and owned by the Wertheimers, and its feels like that is swaying a lot of opinions. Trust me, she was brilliant two races ago in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest in France and she did encounter trouble on Arc Day in the G1 Prix de la Foret.
But the bottom line is she has yet to run a race fast enough to hang with the fastest in this race.Tread lightly.
Oscar Performance, at 6/1 with Paddy Power, was not tested for a second in the G1 Woodbine Mile. You’re not supposed to set slow fractions as he did in a Grade 1 race especially over a one turn trip.
But don’t hold it against him and look at it as a plus. I think he needed that after the disaster that was the Arlington Million. He needed an easy run to prime him for a year end best and the pace shouldn’t be too hot this year.
Analyze It should set the pace and Oscar Performance should be just off of him and he will have plenty of finish in him. He’s dangerous at that 6/1 morning line and can be bet with top horse racing bookmakers.
Happily, at 15/1 with William Hill, is a daughter of Galileo trained by Aidan O’Brien, and she will outrun her morning line odds. She has run well on soft ground and this year in June was beaten only a half of a length to one of the top fillies in Europe, Laurens, over soft ground.
The weather in Louisville, Kentucky, looks like it will produce a less than firm turf course over these two days.
But if your looking for the now horse, look no further than Next Shares.
There’s no exact science in determining why an equine athlete can turn around their form so quickly. To me there has to be multiple factors in play to make a horse better out of nowhere.
Looking at Next Shares, 10/1 with Betfair, and his 2018 campaign it is night and day. He showed promise in his first start of the year and quickly that hope diminished in his two starts at Del Mar. But he simply had nothing when it counted at Del Mar.
As soon as he got away from California, things changed. He got a confidence builder against softer company at Kentucky Downs two starts ago and he brought that to Keeneland in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile in his recent start.
His speed figures make him one of the fastest in this group, and ground condition shouldn’t be an issue for him, as his Shadwell Mile win came on good turf during a week where Keeneland received a lot of rain. He’s also been in Kentucky for the last two months so he properly acclimated versus the others that are shipping in.
Polydream may end up being a superstar, but she will be overbet on projecting what she may become, not what she has been. Of the Euros, Happily has the most upside and will be great value.
Next Shares is the play for me with Betfair. He has shown us races that win the Mile. Just watch his Shadwell Mile win.
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