Champion Bumper Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 4th, 2020

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BEST 2020 CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS

• Won last time out
• Not run for at least 32 days
• Never finished out of first three
• Run on left-handed and right-handed tracks
• Aged 5 or 6

Betting On Cheltenham's 2020 Champion Bumper? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Cheltenham Champion Bumper.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Champion Bumper, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Champion Hurdle, as they did last year when circling impressive winner Envoi Allen.

Scroll down to find out why the trends loved Gordon Elliott's star so much last year, and read full details of all the Champion Bumper trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Champion Bumper Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Champion Bumper?

Four horses made the Champion Bumper trends shortlist in 2019, but it was impossible to look away from winner Envoi Allen.

The five-year-old had done everything a Champion Bumper winner should, winning right-handed, left-handed, on galloping and undulating tracks, remaining unbeaten, and taking more than a month's break before his Cheltenham test.

On trends, and on the Cheltenham betting, there could be no other winner and he duly obliged as the 2/1 favourite for trainer Gordon Elliott, who now boasts a 33% strike rate in the Grade 1.

It was an odd year for jumps racing, with many horses missing runs due to fast ground, or the equine flu outbreak, so it was harder to apply trends stringently. What is always important for the Champion Bumper though is a horse who won last time out, has never finished out of the first three, and has not run for more than four weeks.

Third Thyme Hill fit that mould, having won his only start (on a galloping track) back in October. He got more trends points for being trained by top Champion Bumper trainer Philip Hobbs, and then achieved a rating of 124 - well above the recommended 120.

The mare The Glancing Queen, who finished fifth, also fit the trends, having run left-handed and right-handed, including winning at Cheltenham. Her one trends slip was that she did not win her last run.

The final trends tip was course-and-distance winner Master Debonair, who had beaten Thyme Hill by a neck at Cheltenham in November. He beat only two home though after the soft ground put paid to his chances.

You couldn't ignore the only Willie Mullins-trained runner in the field, Blue Sari, but being aged four, he was not a trends tip. He finished second, nonetheless.

KEY CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Won last time out
• Made their racecourse debut aged four or five

10-Year-Trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had a break of at least 32 days

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged five or six
• Had never finished out of the first three, exception well-beaten on debut
• Last ran no more than 74 days ago
• Had run on both left and right-handed courses
• Had won or been placed on a left-handed track
• Had won on an undulating or galloping track

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had never finished worse than second
• Were officially rated 120 or higher

Seven of the last 10 winners...

• Had never run in a point-to-point

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Had won at least one bumper

29/30 placed horses

• Finished in the first two last time out
• Finished in the first three on their bumper debut

27/30 placed horses

• Won last time out

19/30 placed horses

• Were trained in Ireland

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Envoi Allen Won 2019's Champion Bumper

Backed into 2/1 favourite from 9/2, Envoi Allen maintained his unbeaten record with a battling victory over Blue Sari in the 2019 Champion Bumper.

Trainer Gordon Elliott and jockey Jamie Codd had won the 2017 renewal with Fayonagh, and teamed up again with a similarly exciting prospect, Envoi Allen having already won at Grade 2 and Listed level.

5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 CHAMPION BUMPER RESULT

1. Envoi Allen 2/1f
2. Blue Sari 7/2
3. Thyme Hill 20/1

Codd took a wide line on the five-year-old, getting a dream run through to lead around the final bend, 3f from the finish. The four-year-old Blue Sari, stoked up by jockey Barry Geraghty, came out of the pack to challenge, but failed by three-parts of a length.

Trained by Willie Mullins, the once-raced second was the eye-catcher, having had a more difficult passage to the imposing winner. Third Thyme Hill was the only top-six finisher who had raced up with the pace, belying his odds of 20/1, as he pipped the winner's stablemate Abacadabras.

Cheltenham 2020 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 - Champion Bumper