Champion Bumper Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 4th, 2019

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TOP 5 CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS

• Won last time out
• Not run for at least 31 days
• Never finished out of first three
• Run on left-handed and right-handed tracks
• Aged 5 or 6

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Champion Bumper?

The Champion Bumper trends shortlist list for 2018 included the winner, fourth and fifth among a four-strong team of tips for the Cheltenham Festival's only flat race.

Most of the field had won last time out, so the trick with last year's trends analysis was to look for horses that had never finished out of the first three, and had had a good break.

Winner Relegate scored very highly on trends; she had won going right and left-handed and on undulating and galloping tracks, including at Grade 2 level and last time out, so it was a surprise to see her at odds of 25/1 in the Cheltenham betting.

Fourth Acey Milan was next on the list, the 9/2 favourite having won 3/4 bumper starts going right and left-handed, on galloping and undulating tracks and in Listed company last time out - more than 31 days ago.

Half a length behind him in fifth was third trends pick Blackbow, who had a similar profile to Relegate and was the pick of trainer Willie Mullins's top bumper rider Patrick Mullins. He wasn't top of the list because he'd won a point-to-point, which is a negative for winners, and the same goes for the last tip Know The Score.

He finished 14th having made the short-list very tentatively due to him being trained by David Pipe, rated 119 and successful last time out on a very testing, undulating track, winning by 13 lengths.

Second Carefully Selected, beaten just a neck, was not on the trends shortlist because he had only run 17 days ago - and had run in point-to-points. Third Tornado Flyer missed the cut because he was rated very lowly at 117, after only one right-handed run (and win).

KEY CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Won last time out
• Made their racecourse debut aged four or five

12 of the last 15 winners...

• Had never run in a point-to-point

10-Year-Trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had a break of at least 32 days

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged five or six
• Had never finished out of the first three, exception well-beaten on debut
• Last ran no more than 87 days ago
• Had run on left and right-handed courses
• Had won or been placed on a left-handed track
• Had won on an undulating or galloping track

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had never finished worse than second
• Were officially rated 120 or higher

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Had won atleast one bumper

29/30 placed horses

• Finished in the first two last time out
• Finished in the first three on their bumper debut

27/30 placed horses

• Won last time out

19/30 placed horses

• Were trained in Ireland

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Champion Bumper Preview

How Relegate Won 2018's Champion Bumper

Relegate's narrow victory in the 2018 Champion Bumper, led an historic one-two-three for trainer Willie Mullins, as he landed the Cheltenham Festival race for the fourth time in 10 years.

The four of the trainers’ five runners in the 2m Grade 1 filled five of the first seven places with Relegate winning by a neck from Carefully Selected, Tornado Flyer 3.25 lengths back in third.

5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2018 CHAMPION BUMPER RESULT

1. Relegate 25/1
2. Carefully Selected 6/1
3. Tornado Flyer 14/1

The mount of Katie Walsh, Relegate had won a Grade 2 mares' bumper at Leopardstown last time out, beating the 5/6 favourite Colreevy into third, that rival also her stablemate and the choice of Mullins's first bumper jockey Patrick Mullins.

This time he sided with another Leopardstown winner Blackbow, who finished fifth, just behind 9/2 favourite Acey Milan, the one British-trained horse coming home in the top seven.

Relegate was the second mare in succession to win the Champion Bumper, the Gordon Elliott-trained Fayonagh scoring a year previously under a masterful ride from Jamie Codd.

Cheltenham 2019 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 - Champion Bumper