Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting
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  • No older than 9
  • Had won left-handed
  • Had won a Grade 1
  • Won last time out
  • Had run at Cheltenham before

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Gold Cup? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Festival's Friday showpiece, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the key Gold Cup trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Winner Al Boum Photo did not fit the trends in 2019, but was the strongest pick for 2020, despite no defending champion being successful since Best Mate in 2004.

He was still only aged eight, had had a light campaign, including a win last time out, and a good break of 72 days. He was obviously already a Cheltenham Festival winner, and had to be at the top of the list.

Second Santini was also a clear trends pick. He had been placed in both Festival outings, won a Grade 1 as a novice, and was 2/2 that season, including winning the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last tim out.

He was also trained by top race trainer Nicky Henderson, but it was actually a slight concern that he had chosen the Cotswold Chase route, as it has only produced two previous placed Gold Cup runners, and no winners. It might be too tough a test too close to the Festival.

Third Lostintranslation pulled up last time out, and had just had a wind operation, so was easily ruled out for the win, but fifth Delta Work was a good trends fit, having won the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown last time out, never finished worse than third in two Festival outings.

He had also won three Grade 1 chases as a novice, and two as a senior competitor, marking him out as a strong challenger. His age, seven, was the one negative as generally this goes to a horse aged eight or nine - that extra year of strength pays dividends.

No other runner had won a race last time out - which is a bit of a must-have - except lowly-rated Chris's Dream and Clan Des Obeaux, but he had finished fifth to Al Boum Photo in 2019 and showed no reason why he could get closer this time. He finished eighth.

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The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged no older than nine
  • Had between one and five starts in that season
  • Had run in a Grade 1
  • Had won on a left-handed course
  • Had run at Cheltenham before


The last 10 winners…

  • Had won a Grade 1
  • Were aged between six and nine
  • Won last time out - or last won at the previous Cheltenham Festival
  • Had not at more than three runs since their last win
  • Had won at least three chases
  • Last ran at least 33 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Had won over at least 3m before
  • Had four or more wins on a galloping track
  • Had run in at least five chases
  • Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
  • Were officially rated 164+
  • Last ran no more than 79 days ago
  • Did not wear headgear except a tongue tie

The last six winners...

  • Won last time out
  • Were aged 7-9
  • Were officially rated 164+
  • Had won at least three chases
  • Had run no more than four times that season
  • Had won at least one Grade 1 and one Grade 2

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

  • Had won on a left-handed course
  • Had won on a galloping track
  • Had no more than five starts since a win

29/30 placed horses

  • Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
  • Had run at Cheltenham before - only 2 not running over fences
  • Had between one and five starts in that season
  • Last ran in a Graded race; exception winner Al Boum Photo (2020)

25/30 places horses

  • Were officially rated 160 or higher
  • Did not wear headgear - though four did wear a tongue tie, including winner Don Cossack

25/30 placed horses

  • Were aged no older than 9 - exceptions previous winners Denman (twice) and Kauto Star, and the Grand National winner Mon Mome.
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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Cheltenham Gold Cup)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
King George VI Chase (G1)KemptonLong Run (2011)Lostintranslation (2020), Bristol De Mai (2019), Might Bite (2018), Long Run (2013), Kauto Star (2011)
Denman Chase (G2)NewburyNative River (2018), Coneygree (2015)Native River (2017), The Giant Bolster (2012), Long Run (2012)
Irish Gold Cup (G1)LeopardstownSizing John (2017), Lord Windermere (2014)Anibale Fly (2018), Minella Rocco (2017), Sir Des Champs (2013)
Savills Chase (G1)LeopardstownSynchronised (2012)Don Poli (2016), Road To Riches (2015)
New Year's Day Chase (G3)TramoreAl Boum Photo (2019, 2020)nonw/td>
Ladbrokes Trophy (G3)NewburyBobs Worth (2013)Denman (2011)
Kinloch Brae Chase (G2)ThurlesDon Cossack (2016)none
Cotswold Chase (G2)CheltenhamnoneSantini (2020), Djakadam (2016), The Giant Bolster (2014)


Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L Places
Nicky Henderson 11 2 18 -2.75 4
Jonjo O’Neill 4 1 25 5.00 1
Gordon Elliott 5 1 20 -1.75 0
Colin Tizzard 8 1 13 -2.00 2
Paul Nicholls 13 1 8 -12.00 2
Willie Mullins 22 2 9 -3.66 5

How Al Boum Photo Won 2020's Cheltenham Gold Cup

Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins, a multiple Cheltenham Festival leading trainer, and the winning-most Festival trainer of all-time, had never won the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

In 2019 Al Boum Photo changed that with a dominant display that he emphatically repeated by just a neck in 2020, this time as the 100/30 favourite. He became the first since the mighty Best Mate to defend his Gold Cup crown


  1. Al Boum Photo 100/30
  2. Santini 5/1
  3. Lostintranslation 10/1

Santini put in a lifetime best to take that agonisingly close second for trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey Nico De Boinville, with third Lostintranslation fading behind the front two after the last.

Monalee stayed on strongly passed tired horses to take fourth, finishing only a neck behind the third, and giving his jockey Rachael Blackmore a huge result on her first Cheltenham Gold Cup ride.

Cheltenham 2021 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle


16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Mares Chase - NEW RACE

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

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