Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 29th, 2019

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TOP 5 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS

• No older than 9
• Had won left-handed
• Had won a Grade 1
• No more than four starts since last win
• Had run at Cheltenham before

Get the latest Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Cheltenham Gold Cup?

In short, no. The Gold Cup trends pointed to four horses, and only one made the frame; Bristol De Mai took third at odds of 18/1 - the biggest price amongst the selected quartet.

The winner, Al Boum Photo, did fit some of the trends, he was a Grade 1 winner, for example, but the seven-year-old was discounted because he last ran in a Listed race, had not won over 3m or further, and fell on his only outing at Cheltenham.

Bristol De Mai had achieved everything necessary to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. His one negative against the trends was that fall last time out, and perhaps that confidence knock was enough to lose him Cheltenham race?

Almost every winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup won last time out, so the second horse on the trends shortlist, Native River, had clear concerns, having not won since his Cheltenham victory 12 months earlier. However, on all other fronts, he fit the profile and finished a gallant fourth, priced at 6/1 in the Cheltenham betting.

The best two Gold Cup trends fits through were the Willie Mullins-trained Bellshill (9/1) and Kemboy (8/1). Each won a Grade 1 last time out - two key trials at Leopardstown - achieving ratings well in excess of the minimum 164. They had been freshened up well. They had run well in Grade 1 novice chases at Cheltenham, and had won five chases each, including over 3m.

Luck was not on their side though; Kemboy unseated jockey David Mullins at the first fence and Bellshill was pulled up at the end of the first circuit after a series of jumping errors. It was just the second time in 22 starts that this 11-time winner had failed to complete a race.

KEY CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged no older than nine
• Had between one and five starts in that season
• Had run in a Grade 1
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had run at Cheltenham before

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had won a Grade 1
• Were aged between six and nine
• Won last time out - or last won at the previous Cheltenham Festival
• Had not at more than three runs since their last win
• Had won at least three chases
• Last ran at least 33 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Had won over at least 3m before
• Had four or more wins on a galloping track
• Had run in at least five chases
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
• Were officially rated 164+
• Last ran no more than 83 days ago
• Did not wear headgear

The last five winners...

• Won last time out
• Were aged 7-9
• Were officially rated 164+
• Had won at least three chases
• Had run no more than four times that season
• Had won at least one Grade 1 and one Grade 2

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30placed horses

• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had won on a galloping track
• Had no more than five starts since a win

29/30 placed horses

• Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
• Had run at Cheltenham before - only 2 not running over fences
• Had between one and five starts in that season
• Last ran in a Graded race

26/30 places horses

• Were officially rated 160 or higher
• Did not wear headgear - though three did wear a tongue tie, including winner Don Cossack

25/30 placed horses

• Were aged no older than 9 - exceptions previous winners Denman (twice) and Kauto Star, and the Grand National winner Mon Mome.

KEY RACE TRENDS (12 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Cheltenham Gold Cup)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Willie Mullins talks Cheltenham Gold Cup

How Al Boum Photo Won 2019's Cheltenham Gold Cup

Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins, a multiple Cheltenham Festival leading trainer, and the winning-most Festival trainer of all-time, had never won the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

But he felt that this year he had his best chance ever of landing Cheltenham's holy grail, fielding four top hopes; Kemboy, Bellshill, Al Boum Photo, and Invitation Only.

Shortest in the betting were Kemboy and Bellshill, who both exited the race on the first circuit. His 33/1 chance Invitation Only did too, leaving only 12/1 Al Boum Photo as the Gold Cup field turned down away from the packed stands for the second time.

3.30 CHELTENHAM – 2019 GOLD CUP RESULT

1. Al Boum Photo 12/1
2. Anibale Fly 22/1
3. Bristol De Mai 18/1

Down the back straight, last year's first and second, Native River and Might Bite, fought out an almost identical duel to 12 months ago, head-to-head over ever flight, but at the furthest point the defending champion came under pressure and Al Boum Photo loomed ominously.

A stacked field rounded the home turn, Al Boum Photo just inching into the lead for jockey Paul Townend, who survived a penultimate flight blunder to galvanise the seven-year-old for a powerful surge up the hill.

He won by two and a half lengths over Anibale Fly, who had been third in 2018, with 2017 seventh Bristol De Mai finishing nearly four lengths further back in third, three lengths ahead of Native River and the King George VI Chase winner Clan Des Obeaux.

The 100/30 favourite Presenting Percy never travelled with the ease he had shown to win the RSA Chase a year earlier, and finished the race lame back in eighth.

Cheltenham 2020 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 - CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle