Chinese GP Betting Tips, Odds And Analysis

Roy Brindley

April 10th, 2019

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Quick Tips

• Charles Leclerc to go fastest in Practice Session 1 at 7/2 with Unibet.
• Fastest Lap, Sebastian Vettel at 11/4 with William Hill and Charles Leclerc at 3/1 with Paddy Power.
• 17.5 finishers at 2/1 with William Hill

Betting on a Clean Run Chinese Grand Prix

This weekend’s F1 action comes from China. From 2009 onwards the race has been staged in mid-April but prior to that it was one of the penultimate races of the season (September/October). 2019 marks the 16th rendition of the race so we have plenty of form to go on, so therefore plenty to bet on with the best Formula 1 Betting Sites.

At first inspection that historical data throws out a lot of mixed signals but once giving the formbook a thorough read through things make a lot of sense and a number of potential bookmaker ‘ricks’ are excusable - make no mistake we are not moaning!

The finishing numbers here are nothing short of remarkable. Twice in three years every car that set out completed the race. In 2011 and 2012 just one driver was forced to retire.

With all but one car deemed to be a ‘classified finisher’ last time in Bahrain, William Hill’s 2/1 available about 17.5+ finishers on Sunday looks an outstanding proposition.

No Safety Confusion

Now with every car that set out completing the race in 2016 and 2018 you have to wonder how/why a Safety Car was needed. The answer was ‘debris on the track’ and that is something the Stewards are using, with increasing frequency, a ‘Virtual Safety Car’ to clear up these days. For betting purposes a ‘Virtual Safety Car’ does not count as the real thing incidentally.

However, the 2019 F1 cars have new robust and less complicated front wings and that lessens the likelihood of carbon fibre on the racing line. More importantly the historical stats scream ‘massively unlikely’ when it comes to Safety Car use. It has been required just six times and has been left parked-up on nine occasions.

At 13/8 with William Hill you have to side firmly with the NO scenario which, of course, ties in with our viewpoint that there will be a large number of finishers – and none/few crashed out cars.

Winning Margin

A clean run race with no Safety Car ties in with a big winning margin. This is another circuit which tends to string cars out like washing on a line and even on the occasions when we have had safety car interference (such as 2016 and 2018) we have still had a comprehensive winner (18.7sec and 8.9sec winning margins).

As five of the last seven Chinese Grand Prix (and seven of last 11) have seen the winner prevail by 8sec or more the ‘buy’ on 8sec+ is attractive at 6/5 with Bet Victor.

Leclerc Again

Before the race gets underway we do have three practice sessions and a qualifying session to sink our teeth into. Practice 1 in Bahrain last time (plus Practice 3 and qualifying) went to Charles Leclerc in what is looking like the fastest car right now, a Ferrari.

With the Italian team seemingly happy to show their hand from the outset there, and with Hamilton or Bottas the only other car/driver capable of usurping them at this venue, the battle for the top spot on the opening session time-sheets looks a straight fight between Vettel and Leclerc, with both closely matched in the Formula 1 Betting Odds.

Unlike Vettel, who was outdone in two practice sessions and qualifying in Bahrain and has problems keeping his car on the track these days, Leclerc must be brimming with confidence and at 7/2 with Unibet he is an enormous price to set the early pace on Friday morning.

Recommended Bet: Charles Leclerc to go fastest in Practice Session 1, 7/2 with Unibet.

Fastest Lap

A new rule in 2019 whereby the driver with the ‘fastest lap’ earns an extra World Championship point providing they finish in the top-10 has dulled what was once an excellent betting market.

Race winner Bottas got it in Australia, Leclerc who was robbed of victory in Australia with mechanical failure, earned the extra point in Bahrain. And with the Red Bull set to be hopelessly out horse-powered this Sunday this too is surely a straight fight between the Ferrari and Mercedes drivers.

The history books show three of the last five race winners here (encompassing the new regulation hybrid powered cars) also claimed the ‘fastest lap’ award and so we believe the race winner, who will score by a wide-margin don’t forget, will also claim the fastest lap. Charles Leclerc is 3/1, teammate Sebastian Vettel is 11/4. Our strategy is to back them both at a little under a combined even-money.

Recommended Bet: Fastest Lap, Sebastian Vettel at 11/4 with William Hill and Charles Leclerc at 3/1 with Paddy Power.