Comparing AP Rankings vs Odds: NCAA College Football Week 1

Trey Killian

August 21st, 2018

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College football season is officially here as the Associated Press released its first poll of the season Monday. As one of the most prestigious preseason polls released every year, the AP poll plays a major roll in measuring expectations and anticipation for early season matchups.

The AP Top 25 is for many the great barometer for much of the season until the highly anticipated College Football Rankings are unveiled. The rankings are compiled via a weekly vote made by esteemed college football writers around the country. The website gets into further detail:

The AP Top 25 is determined by a simple points system based on how each voter ranks college football's best teams. A team receives 25 points for each first place vote, 24 for second place and so on through to the 25th team, which receives one point. The rankings are set by listing the teams' point totals from highest to lowest. The mathematical formula is the same as the one used for the AP Pro 32 rankings and the AP Top 25 rankings for men's and women's basketball.

Below we have the AP Top 25 listed next to outright future championship odds provided by some of our favorite sportsbooks. This table shows exactly how perceptions from the AP and oddsmakers may differ and hopefully it serves as an excellent guide for both those experienced and novice in college football betting.

AP Top 25 Week 1 vs CFP Championship Odds

Discrepancies Could be Revealing Value

As can plainly be seen, there are quite a few discrepancies between each school’s offered odds of winning a national title and their actual ranking.

Alabama is predictably the unanimous number one and has the best odds of repeating their championship, while Clemson is ranked second and picked by most sportsbooks as the best team after Bama.

After those two teams, however, there’s relative chaos and a few bets that are worth considering due to their value based on the rankings comparison alone.

Three teams in particular will have Heisman-level quarterbacks that can at least get them to the college football playoff and their odds are tantalizing should they break through and lead their schools to glory.

Redzonesports.bet offers West Virginia, led by Will Grier, at +5000 odds of winning it all, Coral gives the Oregon Ducks and Justin Herbert just an 80/1 shot and Washington led by Jake Browning a 33/1 chance.