Comparing Next US President Odds vs Latest Election Polls

Comparing Next US President Odds vs Latest Election Polls

The latest political polls don't always align with the bookmakers' odds on who will win the next US presidential election, so comparing the two can highlight potential value in the 2020 election betting market.

It's all but certain Donald Trump will be the GOP's nominee come November, so we've highlighted the top Democratic contenders and compared their head-to-head polls in the general election against Trump with their odds to win in 2020.

Trump is the current favorite at 6/5 but former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders, the two Democratic front-runners, are just behind the president thanks to strong starts to both of their campaigns.

Head-to-Head vs Trump

Candidatevs Trump2020 Odds
Joe BidenBiden +85/1
Bernie
Sanders
Sanders +87/1
Elizabeth
Warren
Warren +325/1
Kamala HarrisHarris +214/1
Pete ButtigiegTie20/1
Beto O'RoukeO'Rouke +433/1

The poll results linked in the table are the latest Emerson polls listed at RealClearPolitics, while the odds are from the "US Presidential Election 2020 - Winner" market at Bethard.

Similar to the 2016 cycle with the Republicans and Hillary Clinton, comparing this cycle's odds for each Democrat running against their likelihood to beat Trump is critical to provide extra insight into to a field of almost two dozen candidates.

When a candidate is polling near the top for the nomination with a chance to be on the ticket but is predicted to lose to Trump head-to-head, their value in the general election market is limited regardless of whether they head the party's ticket or not.

Trump Struggling Head-to-Head

National polls never projected Donald Trump to win the 2016 election, but thanks to narrow victories in states such as Michigan, Trump sits in the White House.

But don't let the outliers blind you from the fact that polls and prediction services are usually pretty spot-on when it comes to elections.

Regardless of how accurate they are, President Trump is certainly hoping he can pull off the same surprise in 2020 after recent polls revealed he's an underdog to virtually every major Democrat running.


Donald Trump Rally
President Trump speaking at one of his political rallies in 2016.

In a head-to-head matchup against Trump, Joe Biden is polling as high at +13 while Bernie Sanders also has a significant lead over Trump should they face off.

Even slumping Beto O'Rourke would beat Trump by 4 in the latest poll.

If you're looking to bet on a Democrat to win the general election, do so now before the nomination is finalized because the polls suggest, no matter who faces Trump, they will almost certainly lead in the polls and oddsmakers will have to slash their odds.

If you're confident in President Trump serving a second term no matter who he faces, it's best to wait till the Democratic nominee is selected because the president's odds will get longer, which would mean more value backing him then.

Democratic Nomination Polls vs Odds to be Nominee

Democratic NomineePollsOdds
Joe Biden39.8%9/4
Bernie Sanders16.3%4/1
Elizabeth Warren8.3%14/1
Kamala Harris7.7%6/1
Pete Buttigieg6.8%8/1
Beto O'Rouke4.2%12/1

The poll results listed in the table are RealClearPolitics averages as of this publish date, while the odds are from the "Democratic Presidential Nominee" market at 888sport.

Polling each candidate as a nominee as opposed to head-to-head with Trump provides alternative insight into the market that's worth considering.

Comparing the recent polls for the nomination with the odds could potentially highlight the trust bookmakers are putting in a candidate despite polling outside the top tier.

Candidates could be polling close in the latest results yet the odds might suggest one is much more likely to secure the ticket. In this cycle, clearly the oddsmakers and poll respondents disagree on Senator Harris' chances of securing the nomination.


Check Out: Leo Vegas Sports for latest odds, free bets and welcome bonus.


Oddsmakers Ignoring Warren

Elizabeth Warren, the current senator from Massachusetts, came to national prominence during the 2016 election cycle when she flirted with running as a staunch Trump critic before ultimately backing and campaigning with Hillary.

Senator Warren is finally running in 2020, and she is armed with a laundry list of detailed progressive policy proposals.

The polls suggest Warren has a shot at the nomination, but the betting market for the party nominee tells a different story.

According to the top political betting sites, Warren at 14/1 has a longer shot at the nomination than Pete Buttigieg at 8/1 and Beto O'Rouke at 12/1 despite polling ahead of both, including almost doubling Beto's percentage.

For bettors backing Warren, hopefully her massive list of policy proposals gains her enough attention to prove the books wrong.


Elizabeth Warren campaigning
Elizabeth Warren campaigning in West Des Moines, Iowa in 2019.

If you're looking for more betting tips on the Democratic nomination or want to check out odds on who will win the Republican nomination, be sure to read our in-depth previews of each betting market:


Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
Affiliate Disclosure: At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. This means that if you visit a website through our link and make a deposit, Gambling.com will receive a commission payment at no extra cost to you. At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. More
  1. 1
    BetItOn Sportsbook
    Established 2020
    More info
    EXCLUSIVE: Bet £10, Get £10
    Fully Mobile-Optimised Interface
    Interactive Football Match Centre
    ‘BoostItOn’ Accumulator Boosts
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    27
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    BetItOn have ex-Liverpool striker and Champions League winner Djibril Cissé as their brand ambassador and resident football expert.
  2. 2
    888 Sports
    Established 1997
    More info
    £30 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus When You Place Your First Bet of £10+
    Create your own Multiples with Bet Builder
    Live Streaming of all UK & Irish Racing
    Daily Price Enhancements & Specials
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    GET40
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    16
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    888sport offer a wide range of sports betting markets, combined with regular enhanced specials, plus an exclusive 'Acca Club' (bet £20 on Multiples or Bet Builder to get a £5 free bet - every week).
  3. 3
    Bet UK Sports
    Established 2012
    More info
    Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets
    Wide Range of In-Play Markets
    Live Streaming of UK Horse Racing
    Betting App for Android & iOS Devices
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    9
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    BetUK have leading National Hunt trainer Neil Mulholland and celebrity horse racing enthusiast and model Vogue Williams as brand ambassadors and betting experts.
  4. 4
    mr.play Sports
    Established 2017
    More info
    Welcome Bonus Bet £10 Get £15
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Distinctive ‘Moustache’ Branding
    ‘PlayBoost’ Accumulator Boosts
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Mr.Play Sports has a fun style of its very own, with a memorable handlebar 'tache wherever you look, but it boasts a serious amount of betting markets, plus Premier League & 'Euro Elite' betting battle tournaments.
  5. 5
    Bet365 Sports
    Established 2001
    More info
    Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365
    Awarded 'Sportsbook of the Year' 2018/19/20/21
    Live Streaming of 1000's of Events
    2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    31
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Bet365 offer the most comprehensive online sports betting service, including live steaming of a huge range of sports, plus a unique 'Edit Bet' functionality.
  6. 6
    Kwiff Sports
    Established 2015
    More info
    Bet £10 Get £20
    Random Supercharged Payouts
    Weekly ‘kwiff Club’ Cashback & Free Bets
    ‘Acca Shield’ Refund (if One Leg Fails)
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    13
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    When a customer places a bet with kwiff, they may find that their bet is “kwiffed” - where you receive increased odds after placing your bet.
  7. 7
    Leo Vegas Sports
    Established 2016
    More info
    100% Profit Boost of Up To £100 of Winnings
    Mobile First Betting Interface
    'Leo King' Sports Prediction Game
    24/7 Customer Service
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    34
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Leo Vegas Sports is the sportsbook from this multi-award-winning casino operator, with a focus on mobile users - including a sport betting app for Android & iOS Devices.
  8. 8
    SportNation Sports
    Established 2017
    More info
    Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
    Rewards Points for Every Bet
    Weekly Free Bet Club
    High Betting Limits
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    SPORTS200
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    27
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    SportNation offer unique money back promotions and special offers, such as 'First Five' where your football bet is paid out as a winner if your team scores first in the first 5 minutes.
  9. 9
    RedZone Sports
    Established 2009
    More info
    Bet £20, Get a £20 Free Bet
    Extensive American Sports Markets
    Unique 'Glory Goals' Betting
    Regular Enhanced Odds & Specials
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    RZGG20
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    12
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    RedZone is an American-style sportbook who offer innovative markets, such as 'Glory Goals' where you can bet on two teams playing in different games - selecting who scores most.
  10. 10
    BritainBet Sport
    Established 2020
    More info
    Deposit £10 Get £10 Free Bet
    10% Cash-Back on Various Sports
    'Wager Wars' Cash Prizes
    Full & Partial Cash-Out Options
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    16
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    BritainBet is a relatively new sportsbook and casino platform, which offers Bet Builder and Cash-Outs, plus 24/7 customer service.
×