County Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

County Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

BEST 2021 COUNTY HURDLE TRENDS

  • No more than 4 hurdle wins
  • No more than 2 handicap hurdle wins
  • Run in at least 1 handicap hurdle
  • Not favourite in County Hurdle betting
  • Officially rated no higher than 140


Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 County Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 County Hurdle.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this classic Cheltenham Festival handicap, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's County Hurdle. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the key County Hurdle trends to follow.


Get the latest County Hurdle Odds here

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. £40 In Free Bets Promo Code: GET40

  2. Bet £10 , Get £20*

  3. Bet £100 Get £100 in Free Bets, 100% in Boosts & 10 Extra Spins

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New users only. Free Bets: place qual bets of £10-100 (min odds 1/2, 2+ legs) in 1st 7 days to unlock. Awarded as 4 equal free bets that total 1st deposit amount. Min odds 1/1, 3+ legs, + expire in 7 days. Odds boosts: Crediting relies on marketing comms opt-in. Credited on each of 1st 5 days following deposit. Extra spins credited unlocked. Winnings credited in cash. Full T&Cs Apply. Visit Site

Did Trends Win The Last County Handicap Hurdle?

There were four horses shortlisted by the County Hurdle trends in 2020, including the second home in one of the Cheltenham betting's trickiest heats.

Grade 1-winning seven-year-old Aramon, who finished second at 8/1, was the most tentative tip from the trends, based loosely on the model presented by the last top-weight winner Arctic Fire. Generally, the winner is rated less than 140, but when a horse very close to top-weight is a Grade 1 winner, they have to be respected.

It helped build confidence in him that he was trained by top race trainer Willie Mullins, who had a stronger tip on the trends in the 139-rated Ciel De Niege, who had been second last time on handicap debut in the valuable Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, which has proven a Key Race (see below) for the County Hurdle.

The five-year-old also boasted Cheltenham Festival form, having been third in the 2019 Fred Winter, and had only run in three handicap hurdles. He looked unexposed, though it was a concern that he had not won a hurdle - something all of the previous winners had achieved.

Mullins instead won the race with Saint Roi, a big trends bust as the first favourite to win in 14 years, and the first handicap debutant to win in more than 15 years.

Unfortunately, the two others best fitting the County Hurdle trends were Thatsy and Mohaayed, both finishing down the field, despite their connections, and attractive form, ratings and weights. It could be that the profile of a County Hurdle winner is moving closer to Grade 1 class. Time, will tell.

BrandSports with Antepost BettingCash OutSpecial BetsAntepost Multis?Visit Site
21 Yes Yes Yes
22 Yes Yes Yes
21 Yes Yes Yes

KEY COUNTY HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged up to nine
  • Were trained in Ireland - or by Paul Nicholls, or Dan Skelton
  • Had an average official rating of 138, only two horses rated more than 139 winning

14 of the last 15 winners…

  • Had run in at least one handicap hurdle; exception Saint Roi (2020)
  • Won one of their last 10 starts; exception Ch'Tibello

11 of the last 15 winners…

  • Had run at Cheltenham before, but only 1 had won

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were aged between five and eight
  • Had won no more than four hurdle races
  • Had won no more than two handicap hurdles, five winning none
  • Had won a race over 2m-2m1f before
  • Were not favourite in the betting

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
  • Carried no more than 11st 5lb
  • Had won at least two hurdle races
  • Had run 2-4 times that season
  • Last ran at least 33 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Did not win last time out
  • Had run in no more than four handicap hurdles
  • Were officially rated between 134-139; exceptions 146-rated Ch'Tibello, 158-rated Arctic Fire
  • Had not won any Graded hurdle; Ch'tibello, Arctic Fire the exceptions

Seven of the last 10 winners…

  • Were aged 5 or 6
BrandDaily Racing SpecialsLive Streaming RacingAnte Post RacingTote/Other MarketsVisit Site
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Min deposit £/€/$10'with promo code: GET40 • Min odds 2.0 • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns.• • Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & full T&Cs apply.
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. 18+. New players only. www.begambleaware.org
No No Yes No
18+ New Customers Only. Max £10 freebet token. Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater. Paid as bonus token with min 4/5 req. Skrill, Neteller & PayPal are not eligible. T&CS apply. 18+.

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the County Hurdle)

Key Race Racecourse Winners Place Finishers
Ladbrokes Hurdle (Grade B) LeopardstownFinal Approach (2011), Ted Veale (2013)Embittered (2020), Plan A (2012), Shadow Catcher (2013)
Betfair Hurdle (G3) Newbury Remiluc (2018)Sternrubin (2016), Montbazon (2014), Manyriverstocross (2013), Sailors Warn (2011), Get Me Out Of Here (2011), Nearby (2011)
Imperial Cup (G3) SandownWicklow Brave (2015) Arctic Fire (2014)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle (G1)LeopardstownNoneWhiskey Sour (2018)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L Places
Dan Skelton 8 3 38 48.00
Willie Mullins 29 4 14 50.00 6
Tony Martin 4 1 25 7.00 1
Paul Nicholls 14 1 7 -3.00 1

How Saint Roi Won 2020's County Hurdle

Saint Roi in 2020 became the first favourite to win the County Hurdle since Desert Quest in 2006.

Sent off at 11/2, the novice belied his inexperience, making his move swiftly two out to take the lead before the last and readily pull away for a four-and-a-half length win on handicap and Cheltenham debut.


2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2020 COUNTY HURDLE RESULT

  1. Saint Roi 11/2f
  2. Aramon 8/1
  3. Embittered 14/1
  4. Buildmeupbuttercup 16/1

In a blanket finish for minor placings, Mullins also saddled second Aramon and fourth Buildmeupbuttercup, the Joseph O'Brien-trained Embittered making it a clean sweep for Irish-trained horses.

The win gave trainer Willie Mullins a record five County Hurdle wins in his career, with only Paul Nicholls coming close to that achievement, having won four - the latest coming in 2014.





Cheltenham 2021 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Mares Chase - NEW RACE

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10

  2. Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365

  3. £40 In Free Bets Promo Code: GET40

  4. Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

  5. Bet £100 Get £100 in Free Bets, 100% in Boosts & 10 Extra Spins

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New users only. Free Bets: place qual bets of £10-100 (min odds 1/2, 2+ legs) in 1st 7 days to unlock. Awarded as 4 equal free bets that total 1st deposit amount. Min odds 1/1, 3+ legs, + expire in 7 days. Odds boosts: Crediting relies on marketing comms opt-in. Credited on each of 1st 5 days following deposit. Extra spins credited unlocked. Winnings credited in cash. Full T&Cs Apply. Visit Site
  6. Bet £10, Get £10 + 50 Extra Spins

  7. Bet £10 Get £10

  8. Bet £10 Get £10 Free In-Play

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Full T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org New customers only. Opt in required. Qualifying bet must be £10 or more and placed at odds of 1.5 or higher. Free bet must be used in-play. Free bet is non-withdrawable, expires after 7 days and is not returned with winnings. Visit Site
  9. Bet £20, Get £10 in Free Bets

  10. Bet £10 and Get a £20 Free Bet Bonus

Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles

×