London derbies are rarely straightforward to predict, but this is a match between two teams going in opposite directions at the moment.
Tottenham Hotspur are second in the six game Premier League form guide at present, with their recent defeat to Manchester City the only match they haven’t won in this period.
Crystal Palace, by contrast, have drawn two and lost four of their last six matches, and they went out of the Carabao Cup to Middlesbrough last week too. Fulham are the only top flight side to have taken fewer points in this spell.
With such differing records, it’s no wonder Spurs are red hot favourites with the best bookmakers to win this match. BetHard price Mauricio Pochettino’s men at 5/6 to take the three points, with Palace at 7/2 and the draw at 14/5.
Selhurst Park is considered a tough place to go for the top teams, but that hasn’t been borne out by the results in recent years. The Eagles beat Spurs at home in 2014/15 – as well as Liverpool and Manchester City – but Tottenham have won the three meetings in south London since then.
Palace took just one home point from the big six in 2015/16, three the year after, and four last season.
They drew with Arsenal in their last home game but lost to Liverpool earlier in the campaign, meaning they’ve taken just nine points from the last 60 available at Selhurst Park against the big boys.
The bookies expect their poor form to continue, and so do I.
One thing I won’t be expecting is many goals though. In a remarkable sequence which is unlikely to have been matched too often elsewhere, the last five meetings of these teams have all ended in a 1-0 win for one side, with Tottenham winning the last four.
Using expected goal data from this season to predict the score gives 1-1 as the most likely result. However, the second most likely is a 1-0 Spurs win, so the trend may continue. A bet on that score line is available at 15/2 with 888Sport, so keep it in mind.
It’s a similar picture for low scoring matches if we look at these teams in all Premier League games. Of the 14 ever-present top-flight teams from August 2016 onwards, only three have been involved in fewer matches than Tottenham which saw over 2.5 goals.
Spurs’ tally of 44 such matches is only two behind Palace’s figure, so expect fewer than three goals in this game. Karamba’s odds for under 2.5 goals are 23/20.
With records like that in the total goals market, it’s not surprising to see these sides don’t figure highly in the ‘both teams to score’ rankings either.
Palace are joint-bottom of the pile, as both teams have found the net in just 41 of their 87 league matches since the start of 2016/17. As it’s only happened in 43 of Tottenham’s games, a ‘no’ bet in this market looks prudent. It’s priced up best at 5/4 with BetVictor.
If you’re looking for a bet in the goal scorer markets, then it’s unsurprisingly hard to look past Harry Kane. An interesting quirk of his record against the Eagles is that all three of his goals – from eight Premier League matches against them – have been scored at Selhurst Park.
Kane was the top scorer of away goals in the top flight last season, with 15, and he’s started 2018/19 in similar form, with five. In other words, he’s scored more Premier League goals on the road than some teams have managed to in the last 15 months.
And believe it or not, he’s also behind his expected goals tally for the season. Based on the chances Kane has had, he should’ve scored seven goals rather than the six he has in reality.
Everything points towards him scoring in this match, so consider Betway’s prices of 13/5 for Kane to open the scoring, or 31/40 to net at any point.
For Palace, a goal scorer choice is far trickier. Only five teams in the division have had fewer shots than them, only four have had fewer clear-cut chances. Yet only eight have had more touches in the opposition penalty box. Their build up play is decent but they’re not translating it into shots.
As Wilfried Zaha is their only player with more than one non-penalty league goal this season, he looks the obvious choice. He’s 9/4 with William Hill to get on the score sheet. Or as Palace get plenty of penalties at home, the same firm’s 9/2 for Luka Milivojevic to score is perhaps worth a look.
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