Yorkshire Ebor Handicap 2019 Tips, Odds & Analysis

Steve Mullington

August 20th, 2019

Url copied!

Quick Tips:

• Back Withhold each-way at 15/2 with BetHard
• Back Desert Skyline each way at 33/1 with Black Type

The Knavesmire, in all its glory, in-front of a huge crowd, as the best stayers in Europe fly up the home straight for the biggest prize of its type.

It is of course, the Ebor Handicap, for many the highlight of the Ebor Festival that shares its name, and one of the toughest horse racing betting puzzles of the year. Let’s get started!

The Trends

The Ebor has a long history, and with it plenty of trends to follow. Since 1999, we’ve had 16 winners carrying 9-4 or less – with only Muntahaa breaking that run - and the same amount have been six-year-old or younger.

Do not worry too much about the draw. 14 winners have come from a double figure stall but we’ve had low drawn winners in the past, and tactics are far more important than starting positions. Many jockeys have raced too quickly from a low draw when trying to take advantage of their position and as such, not seen out the trip fully.

The Irish have won four out of the last nine renewals so note their raiders with extra caution.

Three-year-olds also do well if they’re given the chance, so don’t rule them out even though they’ve not won since Aidan O'Brien's Mediterranean. Muntahaa didn’t win earlier in the season, but he’d run three excellent races and generally the winner of this will have passed the post in front.

The Contenders

King’s Advice, who is 7/1 with 888Sport, has won more races than you’ve had hot dinners over the last year – eight to be exact. He’s also the most improved horse in the race and one of the most improved in training – having risen from 71 to 113 in the handicap with his game win at Goodwood. We know he’s got the form, the stamina and the attitude, but has the handicapper finally caught up with him?

With just four races since October 2017, Withhold has been far more lightly raced than the favourite, but he makes them count – in three of them he’s won the Cesarewitch, the Northumberland Plate, and then on his return he was a deeply impressive winner of the valuable Marsh Cup.

An easy traveller, he may still have some improvement left, particularly if he doesn’t bounce on his return. 15/2 with BetHard, he makes slightly more appeal than the favourite as an each-way option that we can get a big run for our money from. He could be the best option from those first three in the market.

William Haggas has not won this race before, but he has a fascinating contender in the shape of Raheen House. The five-year-old, who can be backed at 10/1 with SportNation, has had just two starts under Haggas' name, both over the Ebor course and distance, and on both occasions he’s run very well, particularly when just nosed out of the Silver Cup. It’s not unreasonable to think he might improve once again and he’s a major player here.

You can’t have a big race without a John Gosden candidate and Ben Vrackie, 10/1 with MansionBet, will be popular for that very reason.

He was mowing down Baghdad (14/1 with Betway) with every stride in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot when he would have won with another stride, but he didn’t follow up on that effort at Newmarket behind King’s Advice.

It’s possible that he bounced there however, and if that’s the case then he’s very well handicapped off just a 4lbs higher mark than at Ascot. Baghdad has run creditably enough twice in Group contests since, and has the same mark that he did for his Royal Ascot win.

Gosden also has Royal Line, who will surely catch the eye. The winner of the November Handicap, he made a perfect return when fourth in the Gala Stakes over 1m2f, when he led but didn’t have the turn of foot to match specialists at the trip.

He’s not run since, but has held an entry for this for a long time and stepping up in trip ought to see some improvement from the lightly raced five-year-old.

Follow The Skyline

The leading Irish contender with the best horse racing betting sites is True Self (20/1 with 888Sport), who was disappointing in the Stanerra Stakes, but who had been progressive over the last year and a half, taking a pair of Listed contests and finishing runner up in the Pinnacle Stakes. The worry is that the ground might be too fast for her.

Desert Skyline, who is trading at 33/1 with Black Type, is another of interest at a larger price. He’s fallen a bit from Group company, but he was eye-catching when third behind King’s Advice at the July meeting when probably given too much to do.

He didn’t run as well at Glorious Goodwood, but it’s only a season ago that he was finishing only a couple of lengths behind Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup and maybe the Ascot Gold Cup last year left its mark on him. He is all set to get in (currently 22nd on the list) and could quite easily outrun his odds.