Epsom Oaks 2019 Betting Tips, Odds & Analysis

Steve Mullington

May 29th, 2019

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Quick Tips:

• Maqsad each way - 7/1 with Mr Green

Already Advised:

• Happen each way - 20/1 with 888Sport
• Sea Of Faith each way - 16/1 with Mr Green

A couple of weeks ago, we posted an ante-post preview of The Epsom Oaks. With the final supplementary stage having been passed, and the weather set fair for the rest of the week, we decided it was time for another look at one of the world’s oldest races.

With the first classics of the season done and dusted in the shape of the Guineas, attention now turns to the next two – or in our case, the next one, as The Oaks is the Friday highlight of the Epsom Derby festival.

What is The Oaks?

The Oaks is named after an estate which is to the east of Epsom itself. It was leased to the 12th Earl of Derby in the 18th century, and between himself and his guests, the idea for a race was devised, leading to the very first running of The Oakes Stakes in 1779. And guess who owned the inaugural winner Bridget? - Lord Derby of course! It's a key date in the diary for horse racing betting fans.

Key Epsom Oaks Trends

For a race with such a long history, of course The Oaks is fiercely contested, with a number of unexposed late developing horses meeting last season’s top juveniles. This can lead to a fair few upsets – since 2010 we’ve had three 20/1 winners and also a 50/1 shot winning.

Aidan O’Brien is never far away when analysing these contests and he’s one of the first points of reference when scouring through the ante-post markets. He won last year with Forever Together and has won this contest a remarkable five times since 2010. John Gosden is another master with the fillies, and he’s won this twice since 2010, as has Ralph Beckett.

The Cheshire Oaks (Light Shift, Enable, Forever Together), and the 1,000 Guineas that included Balanchine (2nd), Moonshell (3rd), Reams of Verse (6th), Shahtoush (2nd) Kazzia, Casual Look (6th), Qualify (last) and Minding do particularly well as leading Oaks trials. However, don’t dismiss the Lingfield Oaks Trial which has seen User Friendly, Lady Carla, Ramruma, Look Here (2nd) all go on to Epsom glory.

Who Are the Leading Contenders?

It is a surprise that Pink Dogwood remains as short as 5/2 with a number of our recommended horse racing betting sites, a price which seems short given that there have been several performances since that are more impressive than her reappearance in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan, where she had Tarnawa (18/1 with FansBet) behind. Tarnawa has since won the Blue Wind Stakes, which gives some more substance to the form. It says a lot about how highly she must be rated by Ballydoyle that she is their leading chosen representative and has been their chosen contender for months. Hermosa, once a potential runner, was sent to complete a Guineas double instead, another sign of confidence.

Mehdaayih, the brilliant winner of the Cheshire Oaks, has been supplemented and is now 9/4 with BetHard after being as big as 6/1 after she had won at Chester.

The way she left Manuela De Vega, a listed winner on her last start at two, was exceptional and John Gosden’s charge is surely the right favourite here. Manuela De Vega (12/1 with SportNation) is also heading here, and perhaps Epsom’s much stiffer nature, along with the benefit of a run under her belt, will help her.

Maqsad (7/1 with Mr Green), was arguably as impressive as Mehdaayih when she won the Pretty Polly Stakes, drawing five lengths clear of last season’s Fillies Mile fourth Shambolic, and it represented another vastly improved three year old effort.

She’s not run since, but she was deeply impressive at Newmarket and Shambolic (runner up) ran well when second in the Height of Fashion Stakes and she had a great deal in hand, perhaps even more than the five length winning margin suggested then. Stamina is perhaps in question, but Siyouni has had 1m4f winners and she’s out of a Galileo broodmare.

Anapurna (8/1 with Grosvenor), was a wide margin winner of the Lingfield Trial when she ended up drawing right away from Tauteke. She handled Lingfield excellently and really responded to Frankie Dettori’s maximum pressure really well. The ground was soft there, but her pedigree gives hope that she should handle what is likely to be a faster track.

The Musidora this year was an open renewal even by its usual standards and Frankellina (14/1 with Karamba), was easily the most eye-catching there when dead heating for second with Entitle. The appropriately named daughter of Frankel lost three lengths at the start and was beaten a neck, having made a big move coming down the far side of the track.

She can make big progress from that run, and perhaps missing the break might be less impactful at Epsom rather than York, although she will do well not to over race early if there isn’t a strong pace.

Lavenders Blue (14/1 with MoPlay) was an impressive debut winner in April at Newmarket, when she handled the dips and undulations of the Rowley Mile with ease. She looked set to take Newbury’s traditional trial on Lockinge Day – certainly she was travelling the best 2 out, when last on the bridle – before Queen Power came with a late run to win by neck. She can improve again for that experience and being by Sea The Stars, she might just do so and her full sister is a 12 furlong winner.

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