EU LCS Week 3 Betting Tips: A Test of Strength for G2

Axel Sjödin

June 28th, 2018

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After another exciting weekend of EU LCS for eSports betting fans, it's time to look forward to the third week of competition. Because of the recent drastic change to the meta, results have been hard to predict. But now that all teams have played four matches some patterns are emerging which we'll take a look at for the next round.

G2 and Misfits are currently on a roll, both going 4-0 in matches so far and looking like they have made the new meta their own. The favorites Fnatic also seems to have turned things around as they benched their superstar Rekkles this last weekend, which surely raised some eyebrows. But the team doesn't seem to want an AD carry in the bot lane, despite having the best player for it in Europe.

Splyce on the other hand, the third-placed team of the last split, has had a horrific start to their campaign with a 0-4 record. With their competent coaching staff behind the team it's surprising they haven't adapted quicker. They join H2K at the bottom as the two teams who have yet to grab a win, perhaps representing some value at League of Legends betting sites for anybody interested.

Big Game Will Provide Answers

As the last game on Friday night we'll see the titans of Fnatic and G2 clash in what is a repeat of last split's grand final. The match will answer a lot of questions regarding both teams. G2 has been flawless so far but has yet to face any of the strongest teams, if they manage to win this one, there's plenty of reason to believe that they'll be the team to beat this season.

There are still a lot of question marks concerning the starting line-up for Fnatic. Will they bring back Rekkles after the very strong showing from the team this last weekend without him? It's easy to argue that they should keep him on the bench if they wish to continue with the picks they've gone for so far. At the same time can you really keep a player like Rekkles, last split's most valuable player, on the bench for too long?

The game feels like a toss up since things are still very uncertain after the patch. As we learned last week, it's always a scary prospect to bet against Fnatic, but 11/10 offered on Betway for a G2 victory looks very tempting.

Even the bookmakers haven't made up their mind though and if you believe Fnatic will walk away with the win then the 10/11 available at Karamba is a great offer. It's rare that the bookies favours different teams with such a wide margin and it speaks to how hard some of these matches are to predict.

Misfits Looking for Blood

Looking at the stats so far this split we might have found a real gem in Saturday's match between Misfits and H2K. As stated earlier, the Misfits are undefeated this season, while H2K hasn't managed to pick up a single win, so there's not much value in betting on a Misfits victory here.

An interesting statistic to look at though, is that Misfits is the only team that has grabbed the first blood in all four matches they've played so far, while H2K is the only team who has conceded all four. There's little reason to believe that streak would end in this match due to the quite obvious difference in skill between the two sides. So 4/6 at Bet365 for Misfits to draw first blood is a really solid choice to add into your betslip.

Splyce to Take First Dragon in the Last Place Match

In a match that might be overlooked this weekend, the two last placed teams face off to give one of them a chance to bounce back to winning ways. Splyce are slightly favoured to win it, 3/4 compared to H2K 1/1 at 888sport.

If Splyce can get the upper hand, or at least go toe-to-toe with H2K during the early game, then there's good value in betting on Splyce to take first Dragon for 3/4 available at Bet-at- home. Splyce averages 0.75 dragon kills per game so far, while H2K averages 0.5. Though important to notice is that all of Splyce's three Dragon kills are within the first 15 minutes of the game, while H2K only has one within the first 15 minutes.

It's of course still a small sample size to draw big conclusions from but it's evident that Splyce puts a lot of weight in dragonslaying, since they top the statistics for most Dragon kills, together with Schalke 04 and Roccat, despite losing their games so far.