Eurovision 2021 Full Betting Preview: Odds & Analysis

Stephen Cass

May 17th, 2021

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***Odds updated May 17th***

RECOMMENDED EUROVISION 2021 BETS:

• Each way Malta to win Eurovision 5/1 4 places at Bet365
• Russia top 10 11/10 at Unibet
• Each way Greece to win semi-final two 12/1 at Bet365 (3 places 1/5)
• Albania top 10 33/1 at Unibet

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. To some the Eurovision betting market this year is a mess but to this punter at least it is a Beautiful Mess (clap on the back if you get the reference). On Thursday at various stages, Malta, Italy and France all held favouritism as positive reviews and clips of rehearsals filtered through.

At 9/4 the field, and with six acts under 12/1, this is the most open and competitive Eurovision I can ever recall. You can take this one of two ways. Firstly there is a case that there must be value at the top of the market if you can find the best of a good bunch. Or conversely you can take the standpoint that this specials betting market is ripe for a springer to emerge from the pack. To me it makes sense to attempt to cover both bases.

LISTEN: Eurovision Betting Preview Podcast 2021

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Malta’s Worth a Bet

I have already advised Malta at 4/1 each way in our ante-post piece. They’re currently available at 5/1 at most top specials sites. Destiny’s act had been a little drifty following a sketchy first rehearsal where camera angles and Destiny’s costume came in for criticism. Thursday‘s second rehearsal assuaged a lot of those concerns. And the positives remain. Je Me Casse is a contemporary, radio-friendly pop song that should do well with juries (her voice is sensational).

Televoters should love it (the song has commercial appeal). It is difficult to see this outside of the top 4 in both the jury and televote and that will have Malta there or thereabouts for the outright win. I feel this is still the most likely winner so I am happy to go in again at the prices, with the each way provision.

Malta’s biggest dangers are the automatic qualifiers France and Italy. The French act is quintessentially French but it’s very old-fashioned and may not grab the voting public. Italy’s sexed-up Strokes style offering will certainly do well with televoters, however the grating shouty chorus could cost it with jurors. Malta looks an altogether more solid package.

Outsiders

Of the outsiders that can emerge from the pack Russia, Greece, Ukraine and Portugal are all of interest. I have tipped Ukraine and Greece already on this column, and I couldn’t put anyone off them. My only concern is Ukraine’s appeal to juries. They might garner enough support to challenge for victory and therefore it may pay to look at them in the shoulder markets.

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Greece certainly ticks all the boxes and Stefania could emerge as the strongest act in a weak looking semi-final two. Last Dance gives off major The Weekend vibes and Stefania has a wonderful raspy vocal. With Switzerland floundering after their rehearsal and Iceland vastly overrated I can see this act emerging as a contender for at least the semi-final win.

Don’t Doubt Russia

Russia too may emerge from betting market obscurity to nudge its way into the reckoning for outright glory. Russian Woman is a genuine female empowerment anthem that, while it is Eastern leaning in musical style, it should appeal to Western voters with its uplifting and positive messages. Odds of 70/1 at top bookies are tempting, as is 22/1 for the semi-final win.

However with Malta looking the proverbial good thing for that the angle in here is Russia for the top 10 market. They have made that grade in 12 of the last 20 contests and this year’s song is better than many of those efforts. The 11/10 that is available is very fair.

Finally I cannot resist 33/1 about Albania obtaining a top 10 berth. This song is unique in the contest in terms of being an old-fashioned belt-it-out Balkan ballad. It stands out as a result and Anxhela is a phenomenal performer in her genre. Juries could rank this very highly and if it can even achieve mid table with televoters it would have a squeak at top 10.

ALREADY ADVISED:

• Each way Malta to win Eurovision 4/1 ¼ 4 places bet365
• Each way Greece to win Eurovision 33/1 ¼ 4 places generally
• Each way Ukraine to win Eurovision 100/1 ¼ 4 places Paddy Power
• Denmark top 10 finish 25/1 Ladbrokes