Festival Plate Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Festival Plate Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

TOP 5 FESTIVAL PLATE CHASE TRENDS

  • Won no more than 5 chases
  • Won no more than 2 handicap chases, if any
  • Carrying at least 5lb less than the top weight
  • Within 3lbs of highest chase handicap rating
  • Never won a Cheltenham chase before

Get the latest Festival Plate Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Festival Plate Handicap Chase?

The 2019 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends picked out three horses, including the third and fourth - priced at 6/1 and 10/1 in the Cheltenham betting.

Aged seven and eight, Spiritofthegames and Eamon An Cnoic were lightly raced over fences, and had run at Cheltenham without winning. They had also won at the right courses, while not wining more than two handicap chases - a key trend across the last 15 years (see below).

Eamon An Cnoic had the more attractice weight and rating, coming in below the average handicap mark for any of the last 40 horses to finish in the first four (see placed trends below).

Didero Vallis, the final trends pick, was also very lightly-weighted and shared a similar profile, but finished fifth at odds of 16/1.

The winner Siruh Du Lac carried little weight at 10st 8lb, but appeared far too exposed, having won five handicap chases. The six-year-old also bust a massive trend; he had won a chase at Cheltenham.


KEY FESTIVAL PLATE HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Carried at least 5lb less than the top weight
  • Were officially rated no higher than 147
  • Finished in the first four in one of their last five races

14 of the last 15 winners…

  • Had never won a chase at Cheltenham before

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Had won no more than five chases
  • Were running off a career-high handicap mark, or no more than 3lbs lower
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Last ran in a novice chase or handicap chase
  • Had won on a course described as galloping

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were aged 6-9
  • Had won no more than two handicap chases, 3 winning none
  • Featured sixth or lower in the weights, carrying 10st 13lb or less
  • Had won a chase over a distance of at least 2m3f - exception won over 2m2f, and placed second over further

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Had won over fences on a left-handed course
  • Had run at least three times that season, six winning
  • Last ran no more than 70 days ago
  • Were officially rated no higher than 142

The last six winners...

  • Were officially rated 140 or higher
  • Carried 10st 8lb or more

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Were largely aged eight or older - 13 aged 8 exactly, 9 aged 10 or older
  • Had an average official handicap rating of 140 - three rated 150 or higher featuring
  • Had won at least one chase

39/40 placed horses

  • Had run up to seven times that season
  • Last ran no more than 120 days ago

38/40 placed horses

  • Had won no more than four handicap chases, 11 winning none

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded chase contested before Festival Plate)

Key RaceDist.RacecourseMonthWinnersPlaced Finishers
BetVictor Gold Cup (G3)2m4.5fCheltenhamNovemberBallynagour (2014)Eamon An Cnoic (2019), Bouvreuil (2017), Kings Palace (2016), Buywise (2015)
Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (G3)2m5fCheltenhamDecemberSalut Flo (2012)Ballyalton (2018), Colour Squadron (2014), Johns Spirit (2014), Divers (2012), From Dawn To Dusk (2010)
Fairlawne Handicap Chase (G3)2m5fCheltenhamJanuaryDarna (2015)Splash Of Ginge (2018)
Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase (G3)2m5fCheltenhamJanuarySiruh Du Lac (2019)Janika (2019), King’s Odyssey (2018), Tartak (2013), Mister McGoldrick (2010)
Paddy Power Chase (Grade B)3mLeopardstownDecemberNoneBeautiful Sound (2011)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
David Pipe2131416.504
Venetia Williams181634.002
Gordon Elliott41252.001

WATCH: Racehour Festival Plate Preview


How Siruh Du Lac won 2019's Festival Plate Handicap Chase

Bucking trends galore, Siruh Du Lac made all the running to win the 2019 Festival Plate Handicap Chase for jockey Lizzie Kelly and trainer Nick Williams.

The six-year-old had won a valuable trial at the course in January to record his fifth handicap chase success, but still had just 10st 8lb to carry thanks to Kelly's 3lb claim.

No Cheltenham chase winner had ever landed the tricky handicap, but there was no stopping Siruh Du Lac as he powered to a facile victory over old foe Janika, the gallant top weight.


4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 Festival Plate Handicap Chase Result

  1. Siruh Du Lac 9/2
  2. Janika 3/1f
  3. Spiritofthegames 6/1
  4. Eamon An Cnoic 10/1

Janika carried 1lb shy of topweight when beaten a head by Siruh Du Lac in January, and had been raised 6lbs in the handicap since. Nevertheless, his three-quarter length second under that weight at the Festival was a remarkable feat for a French-bred in his first season in Britain, and he went on to shoulder the same burden to fourth in the Topham Handicap Chase over the National fences at Aintree.

Lightly-raced novice Spiritofthegames was a further two and a quarter lengths back in third, with Eamon An Cnoic, who had been been fifth in the BetVictor Gold Cup at the track last November, taking fourth.


Cheltenham 2020 Thursday Schedule

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase trends

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 - Festival Plate Handicap Chase

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends

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