Festival Plate Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Festival Plate Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

BEST 2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PLATE TRENDS

  • Won no more than 5 chases
  • Won no more than 2 handicap chases, if any
  • Carrying at least 5lbs less than the top weight
  • Within 3lbs of highest chase handicap rating
  • Not topweight


Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Festival Plate? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival Plate.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this handicap chase, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Festival Plate. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the Festival Plate trends to follow, beyond the top five.


Get the latest Festival Plate Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Festival Plate Handicap Chase?

The 2020 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends found none of the first four, with all of them busting a massive trend; they had won a chase at Cheltenham before.

Before Siruh Du Lac busted that trend to win in 2019, none of the last 15 winners had done so, and still before the start of the 2020 renewal, that six-year-old was the only Cheltenham chase winner to go on to take this race.

The victory of another Cheltenham chase winner Simply The Betts, chased home by three others, suggests a new trend is emerging to now favour those more exposed at the course, and this change in exposure trends is also reflected by the fact that two of the three horses to have carried more than 11st to victory in the past 25 renewals did so in the past three years.

For the record, the two trends selections in 2020 were Ben Dundee and Spiritofthegames, who finished fifth and sixth at 10/1 and 16/1 in the Cheltenham betting.

Aged eight, both were lightly raced over fences, and had run at Cheltenham without winning. They had also won at the right courses, while not winning more than two handicap chases - a key trend across the last 15 years (see below).


KEY FESTIVAL PLATE HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Carried at least 5lb less than the top weight
  • Were officially rated no higher than 149
  • Finished in the first four in one of their last five races

13 of the last 15 winners…

  • Had never won a chase at Cheltenham before; exceptions won in 2019 and 2020, suggesting an emerging trend against this

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Had won no more than five chases
  • Were not topweight; only two finishing top four
  • Were running off a career-high handicap mark, or no more than 3lbs lower
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Last ran in a novice chase or handicap chase
  • Had won on a course described as galloping
  • Last ran on a course described as galloping (five at Cheltenham)

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were aged 6-9; exception aged 10
  • Had never won a Graded race before; exception won a Grade 3
  • Had won no more than three handicap chases, 3 winning none
  • Featured sixth or lower in the weights, the majority carrying 10st 13lb or less
  • Had won a chase over a distance of at least 2m3f - exception won over 2m2f, and placed second over further

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Had won over fences on a left-handed course
  • Had run at least three times that season, seven winning
  • Last ran no more than 70 days ago
  • Were officially rated no higher than 145

The last six winners...

  • Were officially rated 140 or higher
  • Carried 10st 8lb or more

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Had won at least one chase
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Were largely aged eight or older - 14 aged 8 exactly, 9 aged 9 or older

39/40 placed horses

  • Had run up to seven times that season
  • Last ran no more than 120 days ago

36/40 placed horses

  • Had won no more than four handicap chases, 9 winning none
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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded chase contested before Festival Plate)

Key RaceDist.RacecourseMonthWinnersPlaced Finishers
BetVictor Gold Cup (G3)2m4.5fCheltenhamNovemberBallynagour (2014)Happy Diva (2020), Eamon An Cnoic (2019), Bouvreuil (2017), Kings Palace (2016), Buywise (2015)
Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (G3)2m5fCheltenhamDecemberSalut Flo (2012)Ballyalton (2018), Colour Squadron (2014), Johns Spirit (2014), Divers (2012)
Fairlawne Handicap Chase (G3)2m5fCheltenhamJanuaryDarna (2015)Oldgrangewood (2020), Splash Of Ginge (2018)
Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase (G3)2m5fCheltenhamJanuarySiruh Du Lac (2019)Janika (2019), King’s Odyssey (2018), Tartak (2013)
Paddy Power Chase (Grade B)3mLeopardstownDecemberNoneBeautiful Sound (2011)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
David Pipe182112.504
Venetia Williams171635.002
Gordon Elliott41252.001

How Simply The Betts won 2020's Festival Plate Handicap Chase

Bucking trends galore, Simply The Betts escaped late drama in the 2020 Festival Plate Handicap Chase to justify 100/30 favouritism for trainer Harry Whittington and jockey Gavin Sheehan.

A course and distance winner in novice company on Cheltenham trials day, the seven-year-old was left in the lead as defending champion Siruh Du Lac fell two out, and went on to hit the next himself.

Happy Diva had the upper hand now, carrying 3lbs less to boot, but Simply The Betts rallied gamely up the final climb to win by a length and a quarter - a first Cheltenham Festival win for owners Kate and Andrew Brooks.


4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2020 Festival Plate Handicap Chase Result

  1. Simply The Betts 100/30f
  2. Happy Diva 20/1
  3. Mister Whitaker 22/1
  4. Oldgrangewood 11/1

Mister Whitaker, successful in the 2018 Cheltenham Festival Novices' Handicap Chase, was burdened by 11st 7lb and could not stay with the front two, fading to finish third, holding a rallying Oldgrangewood by half a length.

In an unusual result for this race, the first four finishers were all previous Cheltenham chase winners, and carried in excess of 11st 1lbs.



Cheltenham 2021 Thursday Schedule

13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase trends

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 - Festival Plate Handicap Chase

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends

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