Football Betting Strategy: Technical vs Value-Based Betting

SHARE

Football Betting Strategy: Technical vs Value-Based Betting

There is no one “right” way to approach football betting. However, there tends to be two schools of thinking; those that follow the bookmakers and those who pursue a value based philosophy.

Technical

The first of these is relatively straightforward. Bookmakers, as we all know, are not in the business of charity; they will shorten odds if they think it is likely an outcome will materialise. They may consider these probabilities on several factors; recent form, past head-to-heads, away form, home form etc. They may even have an inside track on certain information that the punter is oblivious to. Either way, you can be sure that if the bookmakers make a particular team firm favourites, they are probably worth backing.

However, there are clearly two problems with this. The first is merely a matter of returns; if you are consistently backing favourites, your profits will be gradually incremental to say the least. In order to make big financial returns, you will frequently have to bet big, leaving yourself open to an upset and a considerable sum lost. This leads into the second problem with backing the bookies’ football betting tips every time; since variables in sport are inevitable and therefore odds unquantifiable in any finite terms, the bookmakers will not always be right.

Value

This is where value betting comes in. A value better will always look for a match where they think one team has a better chance of winning than the bookmakers do. For example, if Manchester United were playing Fulham at Old Trafford and United were given odds to win of 4/11 and Fulham 13/2, we can clearly see that United are favourites.

However, if a value punter decided off the back of his own analysis that Man U were 70% likely to win the game and Fulham were 15% to pick up all three points, he would see that there would be value on betting on the underdogs. This is because his research has led him to establish his own odds at 1.43 and 6.67 for a home and away win respectively. If he is right, a hundred £1 stakes on Fulham would return a profit of £12.50, while a hundred £1 stakes on United would result in a loss of £4.55.

In-Play Focus

This works in other scenarios, too. In in-play betting, we might see that Ladbrokes Sports or Bet365 Sports are offering Manchester odds of 1/3 to record a 3-0 victory when they are already 2-0 up with half an hour to play (i.e. there is a 75% chance of this happening). If you think there is an 80% (1/4) or more chance of this happening, then you clearly feel there would be value in placing a wager.

Value betting is all about backing your own football betting tips against the expertise of the bookmakers. It is a long-term approach; although consistently betting against the favourites (although, as you can see in our last example, this is not always the case) may seem counter-intuitive, your own analysis tells you that you should be winning over time.

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


Find Value Betting the Champions League Quarters 2nd Legs
Find Value Betting the Champions League Quarters 2nd Legs

Football fans have another feast of Champions League football to look forward to with the second legs of the quarter-finals about to take place. Juventus, Monaco, Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid have ... Read More

Check Out the Best Bets of the Snooker Championship 2017
Check Out the Best Bets of the Snooker Championship 2017

This year marks the 90th anniversary of the first ever World Snooker Championship, won by English snooker legend Joe Davis. But long gone are the days of Davis as stars like Ronnie O’Sullivan, Mark Se ... Read More

Warriors are Favourites but Experts Suggest Backing Cavs
Warriors are Favourites but Experts Suggest Backing Cavs

It's that time of year again, when the NBA's finest reach for more than hoops in a bid to make it through the playoffs and towards championship glory. As ever, the lead up to the NBA playoffs has been ... Read More

Betting Tips for the Champions League Quarter Final 1st Legs
Betting Tips for the Champions League Quarter Final 1st Legs

The competition began with 32 teams, now just eight sides remain in this season’s UEFA Champions League. After a four-week break, football’s premier club competition returns for the first legs of four ... Read More

Finding Long Bets for the Grand National 2017
Finding Long Bets for the Grand National 2017

The Randox Health Grand National Steeple Race is the highlight of the season at Aintree, taking place on Saturday 8 April. This betting preview will tell you everything you need to know about the odds ... Read More

Johnson’s Odds After Fall Could Mean Big Payout at Masters
Johnson’s Odds After Fall Could Mean Big Payout at Masters

As the 2017 edition of The Masters tees off this week at Augusta, intrigue abounds. Can Willett repeat his last year's performance? How will Spieth respond to being back at Augusta? Will Dustin Johnso ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide