Grand Annual Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 4th, 2019

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TOP 5 GRAND ANNUAL TRENDS

• Aged between six and nine
• At least 4lbs lower than topweight
• Run in at least seven chases
• No more than three chase wins
• Two or more wins on a galloping track

Get the latest Grand Annual Handicap Chase odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Grand Annual Chase?

Boasting a 66/1 winner, the 2019 Grand Annual Chase was not entirely a trends-buster, as they highlighted the second and third in this Gold Cup Day handicap.

A shortlist of four was topped by the second Bun Doran (11/1), who had bags of Cheltenham form, including a victory over the Grand Annual trip and sixth in the 2m4f Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase.

He had run in far more handicap chases than the majority of the last 10 winners, but had only won two, both on left-handed, galloping tracks, and he had enjoyed a good 90-day break before lining up for his Cheltenham test.

Third Brelan D'As, 8/1 in the Cheltenham betting, had also only won two chases, and had Cheltenham form, but didn't quite appeal as much on trends as eighth-placed Marracudja (11/1), who had won a novice chase at Cheltenham and, like the four winners before him, had not won for more than a year.

The trends over-looked the winner Croco Bay because he was 12 years old, highly exposed, and had only run once since the 2017 Cheltenham Festival.

What did put him spot on for trends was his Cheltenham form; that is becoming an essential element to a Grand Annual winner's profile, especially previous form in the race itself - he had run in it four times. He also had not won since 2016, which is a plus on trends.

KEY GRAND ANNUAL CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged between six and 12
• Were officially rated up to 150
• Had run up to eight times in the last 12 months
• Had won on a left-handed racecourse

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Carried at least 4lbs lower than top weight
• Featured fourth or lower on the weights list
• Were aged between six and nine
• Had recorded two or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran at least 28 days ago, and up to 227 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Finished in the first four in one of their last three starts
• Had won no more than three chases
• Had run at least twice that season
• Had run at Cheltenham before - six winning - and four running in the Grand Annual

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had run in a handicap chase before - four winning
• Had not won any race for at least 12 months
• Had run at least three times that season
• Had run in at least seven chases

The last 5 winners…

• Had run at least nine times over fences, and in at least three handicaps
• Last ran more than 90 days ago
• Had run at Cheltenham before
• Were officially rated 139 or higher
• Had not won any race for at least 12 months
• Raced off a handicap mark at least 2lbs below their career-high

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

• Were officially rated up to 154
• Had run no more than nine times in the last 12 months

39/40 placed horses

• Finished in the first six in one of their last three starts
• Were not top weight

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Grand Annual Preview

How Croco Bay won 2019's Grand Annual Handicap Chase

Game did not begin to describe the 2019 Grand Annual Handicap Chase winner Croco Bay, who defied age and odds of 66/1 to achieve the biggest win of his career.

The 12-year-old had tried to win the Grand Annual four times before, finishing third aged eight, and fifth at 10. That last attempt was in 2017, and he had run only once since, landing second at Worcester back in July, 2018.

4.50 CHELTENHAM - 2019 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Result

1. Croco Bay 66/1
2. Bun Doran 11/1
3. Brelan D'As 8/1
4. Forest Bihan 33/1

But the handicapper had given trainer Ben Case's charge a chance, dropping the veteran below 140 for the first time since he won a valuable Ascot handicap chase back in 2014, and under jockey Kielan Woods, he capitalised for a rousing length and a half win.

Bun Doran carried 9lbs more to finish second, with the Paul Nicholls-trained Brelan D'As back in third, and Forest Bihan in fourth - the first topweight to make the first four in 11 years.

But the handicapper had given trainer Ben Case's charge a chance, dropping the veteran below 140 for the first time since he won a valuable Ascot handicap chase back in 2014, and under jockey Kielan Woods, he capitalised for a rousing length and a half win.

Bun Doran carried 9lbs more to finish second, with the Paul Nicholls-trained Brelan D'As back in third, and Forest Bihan in fourth - the first topweight to make the first four in 11 years.

Cheltenham 2020 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle