Grand Annual Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 7th, 2021

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BEST 2021 GRAND ANNUAL TRENDS

• Aged between six and nine
• At least 4lbs lower than topweight
• Run in at least seven chases
• No more than three chase wins
• Two or more wins on a galloping track

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Grand Annuual? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Grand Annual. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the key Grand Annual trends to follow.

Get the latest Grand Annual Handicap Chase odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Grand Annual Chase?

For the second year in a row, the Grand Annual Handicap Chase was a trends-bust.

Winner Chosen Mate

The trends shortlist was therefore topped by the third Us And Them (10/1), who had been (distant) second in the 2019 Arkle Novices' Chase at the Festival.

He had 12 runs over fences, including in three handicaps, but had only won once, over 2m1f on a galloping track. He had also enjoyed a 62-day break, and fit the emerging trend of having not won in the last year.

He was also rated 4lbs below his highest ever rating, which is another emerging trend, and was the required 4lbs below topweight, carrying 11st 5lb.

Second Eclair De Beaufeu was too inexperienced to be a top trends pick, but the experience he had had was too strong for him to be over-looked.

He had been campaigned exclusively over around 2m, and won two chases, including a €51,000 handicap chase at a galloping track last time out.

The six-year-old was not as fresh as Us And Them though, having last run February 1, and was on by far his highest rating. However, 5lb-claimer Sean O'Keeffe off-set this and he remained on an attractive weight of 11st 1lb.

The best place bet on the trends was Ballywood, who was 28/1 in the Cheltenham betting. His last win was almost 12 months ago, he had finished third at Cheltenham last time out, had the required wins on galloping tracks, and had not run for 90 days.

The big negative for him on trends was that he was trained by Alan King, who was 0-9 in this handicap chase at the time. In the end, he finished sixth, alongside stablemate Lisp.

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KEY GRAND ANNUAL CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were officially rated up to 150
• Had run up to eight times in the last 12 months
• Had won on a left-handed racecourse

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were aged between six and nine
• Had won at least one race with a distance between 1m7f and 2m1f
• Had run in at least seven races in that same distance bracket
• Carried at least 4lbs lower than top weight
• Featured fourth or lower on the weights list
• Had recorded two or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran at least 28 days ago, and up to 227 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Had won no more than three chases
• Had run at least twice that season
• Had won at least three times in races with a distance between 1m7f and 2m1f
• Had run at least 10 times in races in that same distance bracket

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had run at Cheltenham before - four winning - and four running in the Grand Annual

Seven of the last 10 winners…

• Had run in a handicap chase before - four winning
• Had not won any race for at least 12 months
• Had run at least three times that season
• Had run in at least nine chases

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

• Were officially rated up to 150
• Had run no more than nine times in the last 12 months

39/40 placed horses

• Were not top weight; exception third Forest Bihan in 2019

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KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Chosen Mate won 2020's Grand Annual Handicap Chase

Chosen Mate proved a class above his 17 rivals in the 2020 Grand Annual, cruising to lead before the last and galloping on to win by a length and three-quarters.

On only his fourth chase start, the seven-year-old made only one minor mistake at the last, but jockey Davy Russell reacted quickly galvinising his mount to justify 7-2 favouritism.

4.50 CHELTENHAM - 2020 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Result

1. Chosen Mate 7/2f
2. Eclair De Beaufeu 13/2
3. Us And Them 10/1
4. Greanteen 5/1

Trainer Gordon Elliott also saddled the second, Eclair De Beaufeu, taking his tally in this notoriously tricky handicap to one winner and one placing from only four runners.

Third home was last year's Arkle second Us And Them, who pipped novice Greaneteen by a neck on the line.

Cheltenham 2021 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Festival Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Champion Bumper