Grand National Betting Tips: Using Stats for a 2018 Winner
There are just a few days to go until one of the most iconic events in British horse racing betting, the Aintree Grand National, takes place. The 40-runner, four-and-a-quarter mile steeplechase is the ultimate test of jumping and endurance for staying chasers and provides a not-insignificant test for punters, too.
There are many approaches to thinning out those masses of runners and finding one you fancy and, while some might like to admonish those who choose to take a stats-based approach to cracking the puzzle, it can be an instructive exercise. We’ve run through some of the recent winners using the following parameters with the hopes of getting a handle on this most tricky of betting heats.
Traditionally it was the older, slightly gnarled chasers who had the edge in the race, with 13 of the last 15 runnings being claimed by a horse of nine years of age or older. That trend has been bucked somewhat in recent years, however, with an increase in the prize money on offer seeing classier, younger horses being aimed towards the race. Two of the last three winners of the race, including last year’s champion One For Arthur, were aged just eight.
Logic would dictate that it’s difficult for a horse to win this from high in the handicap, with the burden of a heavy weight sure to take its toll over the marathon trip, but more recent runnings have seen that idea called into question.
Interestingly, six of the last 15 winners of this have shouldered a hefty load of 11st or more, with the superlative Many Clouds managing to shrug off 11st 9lbs to win 2015. It’s perhaps best, then, not to spend too much time fretting over whether your fancy has too much weight on his back - for all that a lower weight must always be considered preferable in a staying handicap.
While the ideal age and weight for a Grand National contender might have changed, the need for a horse to stay on dourly remains an ever-present. Of the last fifteen winners of the race, only 2016’s Rule The Word hadn’t won over three miles or more over fences before landing the prize.
With the possibility of less-than-good ground at Aintree looming, the emphasis on stamina might well be even more pronounced this year than usual, so this is a factor that looks significant.
The requirement for near-boundless stamina to win this race is matched only by the need for a canny jumper. The 30 fences at Aintree provide a unique test of a chaser’s ability to navigate a fence. The massive field and the frequency of fallers mean that old hands in the chasing game have tended to prevail.
10 runs over fences had normally been the magical metric for that chasing experience, with all of the last 10 winners having had at least that number of runs under their belts. Interestingly, in the last three years there’ve been two winners with exactly ten starts to their name coming into the race, so perhaps those classier, younger types which were touched upon above are able to compensate for their - relative - lack of nouse nowadays. Being able to read this form is key.
Anyone who’s ever limbered up for a jog after an extended spell on the sofa can attest that race fitness is imperative for any athlete hoping to acquit themselves with credit. Equine athletes are no different in that regard and a run to blow off the cobwebs before this race has been important for the preparation of winners in recent times.
Of the last 15 winners, 13 had a run over fences in the 50 days before the race. By taking a bigger sample in we can see that 26/27 of the winners ran within 55 days of the off at Aintree and so a pre-National blow is seemingly an important part of the ideal preparation.
The wisdom of using odds as a statistical indicator is questionable at the best of times (horses can’t read a bookie’s chalkboard) and a quick look through the odds of past runners shows that it doesn’t pay look for a horse with any particular price profile.
The last ten years have thrown up two winning 7/1 shots as well as a 100/1 chance and casts doubt on the wisdom of seeking out runners within a certain range of odds as part of your whittling process.
So, look for a young-ish horse with proven stamina, solid jumping experience, ideally with a less-than-brutal weight on it’s back and you might be able to get yourself the most elusive of punting prizes - a winning Grand National docket - at one of the top online horse racing betting sites.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus Promo Code: 30FB
Bet £10, Get £10 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Bet £15, Get £10
£40 Welcome Bonus18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New depositing players on STSbet.co.uk only. Promotion from 11/02/2020 until further notice. First deposit min £10. Qualifying bet: min. £10 accumulator bet with at least two selections with min odds of 1/2 (1.50) per selection. Bonus: 50% of the amount of the first bet. Max. bonus £40. Min. 6x wagering with bonus on min odds of 1/2 (1.50) before withdrawal. Deposit method restrictions. Bonus valid for 7 days. Full T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £20, Get £10 in Free Bets
Double the Odds, Paid in Cash18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Bet must be placed using real money in combination with the Odds Boost Token. Offer applies to Sport bets only. Maximum total stake is £10. Each way bets are a maximum of £5 each way (£10 total stake). Customers have 60 days after registration to use the Odds Boost token. T&Cs apply. BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £10 Free Bet18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New players only. The qualifying bets to claim the Free Bet must have minimum odds of 3/1 (4.00) or higher and must be settled before triggering free bet. 18+. begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.