Greatwood Hurdle 2018 Betting Tips, Odds, Analysis & Trends

Greatwood Hurdle 2018 Betting Tips, Odds, Analysis & Trends

Quick Tips

Nicky Henderson has never won the Greatwood Hurdle, but is set to saddle favourite Verdana Blue in Sunday's renewal of Cheltenham's renown Grade 3 handicap.

With a prize fund of £100,000, the Greatwood Hurdle is no ordinary handicap, attracting scores of talented novices, Graded winners and sometimes those who go on to Champion Hurdle glory at the Cheltenham Festival.

Verdana Blue heads the market at 4/1 with Betway, the mare having beaten males in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton last weekend. Her trainer has never won the race, and a mare has never won it either, but her closest rival in the Greatwood Hurdle betting is 7/1.

Market Leaders

Verdana Blue's penalty for that Grade 2 win has her racing 1lb below top-weight. The form of top weights reads: 8203108072604 - the winner won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and the three placers had placed in Grade 1s, generally at the Cheltenham Festival.

Verdana Blue does not fit that profile, making her too unexposed off a rating of 151. Next in the Greatwood Hurdle betting is Western Ryder, Nube Negra, and Silver Streak, who is on a remarkable run.

Silver Streak (8/1 William Hill) has run nine times in two years, winning five handicap hurdles and going up 49lbs on official ratings. He won well at Ffos Las last time out and relishes good ground, but three of his four wins were carrying less than 10st 10lb, and he's never run a race carrying more than 11st 2lb - 11st 5lb is the burden now.

Nube Negra (9/1 Ladbrokes) off 10st 9lb is a better bet, having been 5th in a Grade 1 at Aintree and third in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in March in just five outings. He could well win first time out, as he did last season, particularly with improvement from a wind operation.

Western Ryder (7/1 BetVictor) is the pick of the favourites though. He's the only runner from any Grade 1 novices' hurdle at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival, finishing sixth in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, which has proven a good guide to Greatwood winners. Gutsy and durable, Western Ryder won't be phased by his handicap debut, and has winning Cheltenham form.

>>Back Western Ryder to Win at 7/1 with BetVictor (5 places)

Is There A Trends Winner?

Analysing 10-year trends for the Greatwood Hurdle reveals the winner is a generally a horse in its second season of hurdling, who has run around six times over hurdles, winning no more than four - preferably two. They have run at Cheltenham and have run in a Grade 1, now rated higher than 136, but not carrying top-weight.

Factoring in that 9/10 winners were aged 4-6 and 10/10 had either run in the last 23 days, or not for 190, as well as the trend that 7/10 had not won a handicap, gives you a top five of Western Ryder, Charli Parcs, Nube Negra, Brianstorm and Midnight Shadow.

At the prices, the best bet in the Greatwood Hurdle trends is Midnight Shadow at 14/1 with Paddy Power, who are paying out down to sixth place. He signed off last season with victory in his first handicap hurdle, the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle run over 2m at Ayr.

The five-year-old was beaten a neck on his return at Wetherby last month, by a rival carrying 4lbs less, and has only gone up a total of 7lbs for those two runs, with fitness improvements to come, and no issues with ground.

>> Back Midnight Shadow Each-Way at 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)

What About A Long-Shot?

Profiling the 30 horses who have finished second, third and fourth in the Greatwood Hurdle 10-year trends, shows that unlike winners, placers have generally won a handicap.

They are more exposed, having run more times over hurdles, and in handicaps, but retain a high-level of quality, boasting Grade 1 and Grade 2 wins. Verdana Blue and Old Guard (25/1 Unibet, five places) fit the profile reasonably well, and you can't go wrong with the latter.

The three-time course winner won the Greatwood Hurdle in 2015 rated 145, Harry Cobden claiming 7lbs off, then was third last year rated 149, Bryony Frost claiming 5lbs off.

The County Hurdle winner Mohaayed could be a better bet at 20/1 with BetVictor, who are paying out down to fifth place, but I think the best long-shot is Irish Roe (20/1 Paddy Power).

If you fancy Midnight Shadow, you have to fancy Irish Roe as she was beaten five and a quarter lengths by him at Ayr, giving him 6lbs. She has since dropped 1lb, her rival going up 7lbs. Charli Parcs, fourth that day, has also gone up, and Irish Roe is sporting cheekpieces for the first time.

Her reappearance was uninspiring at Wetherby, but she was beaten at the same course on her first start last season, then won two handicap hurdles, beating Mohaayed, who carried 4lbs more then and carries 7lbs more on Sunday.

>> Back Irish Roe Each-Way at 20/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)

Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
Affiliate Disclosure: At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. This means that if you visit a website through our link and make a deposit, Gambling.com will receive a commission payment at no extra cost to you. At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. More
  1. Place £10, Get £40 in Free Bets + £10 on Casino
    Promo Code: 10FREE

  2. Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

  3. Get up to £100 in Bet Credits!

  4. Bet £10 and Get £10 Welcome Offer

  5. Welcome Bonus Bet £10 Get £20

  6. Deposit £10 Get £10 Free Bet

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New players only. Free Bet is a one-time stake of £10, minimum odds of 1.5, stake is not returned. 10X wagering the winnings. Wagering occurs from real balance first. Wagering requirement is calculated on bonus bets only, wagering starts from real funds. Max conversion: £20. Valid for 7 days from issue. Excluded Skrill deposits. 18+. Play Responsibly www.begambleaware.org. Visit Site
  7. EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10

  8. Bet £10 Get £20

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply The Promotion operates as a £/€20 Surprise Bet when you place a bet of at least £/€10 on any market with odds greater than or equal to 1.50 as your first bet. The Promotion runs from 09/08/2021 / 12:00 (BST) until 31/12/2021 / 12:00 (BST) (the “Promotional Period”). The Promotion is only valid to: (a) new customers; (b) customers aged 18 years or over. To qualify for the Promotion, participant must deposit and place a £/€10 bet as their first bet on any market (excluding each way) in the sportsbook with odds greater than or equal to 1.50. Only original odds count toward the promotion. Supercharged odds do not count towards the promotion. An accumulation of smaller stakes will not count. Cashed out bets do not count towards this promotion. Only available once per customer. Rewards will be credited to qualifying participants within 48 hours after placing the qualifying bet. Potential winnings from the Surprise Bet are paid in withdrawable cash, excluding the stake. This offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer. Visit Site
  9. Bet £10, Get £10 Free Bet

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New players only. The qualifying bets to claim the Free Bet must have minimum odds of 3/1 (4.00) or higher and must be settled before triggering free bet. 18+. begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply Visit Site
  10. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. Full T&C’s Apply. New customers on mobile only. 7 days to claim and stake £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater to qualify. Free, void, cashed out or partially cashed out bets do not qualify. Max 3x £10 free bets credited on bet settlement. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 or greater. Free bets are non-withdrawable and stake not returned with winnings. 7 day expiry. Visit Site
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles

×