How to Spot a Deal: Finding Value in Sports Betting

How to Spot a Deal: Finding Value in Sports Betting

Bookies and betting experts often talk about value when it comes to betting on sports, but what exactly do they mean? The ability to spot value is one of the key skills that you need to be successful at betting, but it's not always easy. After all, bookmakers don't want to offer you incredible value – they wouldn't stay in business for long if they did.

With the highly sophisticated mathematical and technological tools that they have at their disposal these days, they invariably have the upper hand. But there is value out there to be found, if you know what you're doing. Here, we offer some tips on finding those value bets.

How to Calculate Value

If you believe that the probability of an event happening is greater than the probability suggested by the bookmaker’s odds, then you find yourself in a value situation.

This is subjective, of course – your assessment of how likely an outcome is will differ from others, which is why it's important to gain as much knowledge and information about the event as possible so you can make a good judgement on whether a bet offers good value.

Don’t Follow the Crowd

Value is often to be found in the underdogs, as they can sometimes be underrated by the bookies. Odds are not based purely on calculations of probability but also on how people are betting.

If customers are putting a lot of money on one team in a match because they consider them overwhelming favourites, then the bookmaker will shorten the odds on that favourite in order to protect themselves.

As a result, the odds on the underdog may lengthen. For example, if one of the top teams in the Premier League plays at home, they will always be a strong favourite to win the match. However, last season’s unpredictable campaign proved that the big teams often struggled to win even these games.

Both Manchester City and Arsenal failed to win seven of their 19 home league matches. So if you have a good hunch about the underdog, there is often good value in backing them.

Swot Up

The more research you do into a particular event, the better placed you are to find value bets. The bookmakers have huge amounts of data at their disposal, along with people and technology to analyse the data.

But with so much information readily available online, there is no reason why, with a bit of time and effort, you can't carry out your own analysis.

You don't have to spend hours going through statistics and records, but by studying aspects such as form, injuries and head-to-head records you can make a sound judgement on the probability of a team or player winning.

Use any specialist or inside information that you have, too. For example, if the football team you support are strong favourites for a match, but you know there have been some off-the-field incidents that have affected team spirit that the bookies might not know about, there could be good value in backing the opposition. The bookies don't know everything, so try to look for signs that they might have missed.


Check Out: Legal Ontario Sports Betting sites and major sports to bet on.


Higher Value Lower Down

The bookies tend to focus their resources and attention on the major leagues and competitions, because that's where most money is placed. They are not so thorough when it comes to more obscure events, though, so you are more likely to find good value in the German second division than you are in the Premier League.

Although they also offer a smaller range of markets on these events, a bit of research can give you the upper hand. Again, you can use specialist knowledge if you support a team in a lower league or if you're particularly interested in a less mainstream sport.

Speaking a foreign language can be an advantage if you're betting on a foreign league or team, allowing you to access information that the bookies might not be able to. Finding value is not easy. You are up against big companies with masses of data, sophisticated technology and industry experts on their side.

But they are not always right and events are not always as predictable as they look on paper. There are value bets out there, particularly in more obscure events, you just need to be prepared to go out and find them.

For some great value bets across a huge range of markets, visit bet365 Sport today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Bell Icon
Affiliate Disclosure: At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. This means that if you visit a website through our link and make a deposit, Gambling.com will receive a commission payment at no extra cost to you. At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. More
  1. 1
    Luckster Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Live Betting & Cash-Out Options
    Well Designed & Easy To Use Interface
    ‘Boost Up’ Accumulator Boosts
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    12
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Luckster is a dual sportsbook and casino platform with a vaguely Irish theme, including the inevitable leprechaun logo and shamrock imagery.
  2. Brand Ambassador Teddy Sheringham
    Live Streaming of UK Horse Racing
    Acca Club: £5 Free Bet Every Week
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    9
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    BetUK have former England footballer Teddy Sheringham and six time champion jockey Kieren Fallon as brand ambassadors and betting experts.
  3. 3
    Zet Bet Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Fast & Clean Betting Interface
    'Zet Boost' Accumulator Boosts
    Broad Range of Sports & Esports Markets
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    ZetBet is a new to market betting site that includes an attractive sportsbook with excellent filters to enable you to find your bet quickly and easily.
  4. Awarded 'Sportsbook of the Year' 2018/19/20/21
    Live Streaming of 1000's of Events
    2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    31
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Bet365 offer the most comprehensive online sports betting service, including live steaming of a huge range of sports, plus a unique 'Edit Bet' functionality.
  5. UK's Leading Horse Racing Pool Betting Operator
    Home of the Placepot & Exclusive Placepot App
    Never Beaten by SP on Horse Racing with Tote+
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    2
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    No
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    The Tote offers horse racing pool betting, popular with punters who place small stakes to win large amounts. Favourite bets include the Placepot (picking a horse to be placed in the first six races) and Jackpot/Scoop6 (picking the winner of each of six nominated races on a single day).
  6. 6
    Kwiff Sports
    Established 2015
    More Details
    Random Supercharged Payouts
    Weekly ‘kwiff Club’ Cashback & Free Bets
    ‘Acca Shield’ Refund (if One Leg Fails)
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    13
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    When a customer places a bet with kwiff, they may find that their bet is “kwiffed” - where you receive increased odds after placing your bet.
  7. Create your own Multiples with Bet Builder
    Live Streaming of all UK & Irish Racing
    Daily Price Enhancements & Specials
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    16
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    888sport offer a wide range of sports betting markets, combined with regular enhanced specials, plus an exclusive 'Acca Club' (bet £20 on Multiples or Bet Builder to get a £5 free bet - every week).
  8. Mobile First Betting Interface
    'Leo King' Sports Prediction Game
    24/7 Customer Service
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    34
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Leo Vegas Sports is the sportsbook from this multi-award-winning casino operator, with a focus on mobile users - including a sport betting app for Android & iOS Devices.
  9. Long Established Independent Bookmaker
    Unique Horse Racing Free Bet Refunds
    Racing Ambassadors Hayley Turner & Tom Cannon
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    10
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Betgoodwin is the new online betting site from the independently owned Goodwin Racing telephone betting service. They offer a variety of horse racing special offers as well as betting on a variety of other sports.
  10. 10
    Mr Mega Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    Accumulator Boosts of up to 77%
    Extensive Range of Football Markets
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    8
    Bet Builder
    Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Mr Mega Sports boasts an impressive and easy to use online betting interface, with markets on all major sports and events, plus a wide range of Esports betting markets.
×