Is Any Horse Worth Betting On In Chase Triple Crown Odds?
What is the Jockey Club Chase Triple Crown?
The idea of offering a bonus for any horse that can win the three most prestigious staying chases on Jockey Club racecourses is not new, although the initial idea, promoted by Betfair was discontinued a few years after Kauto Star earned £1m for connections in the 2006/07 season.
The bonus was established in 2005, and originally served as the first part of a bonus scheme called the Betfair Million, which was ostensibly to promote the then new Betfair Chase, which was a replacement for both the Tommy Whittle Chase and the Edward Hanmer Chase - although the former race still exists in a different format, on a different date.
The initial version of the Betfair Million was awarded if the winner of the Betfair Chase went on to win both the King George VI Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The Lexus Chase was included as an alternative second leg for the next two years, and Kauto Star won the prize by taking the original route in 2006–07.
The format was changed in 2008–09, when the bonus became available to any first-three finisher achieving first or second at the Cheltenham Festival and then winning the Grand National. The Betfair Million was dropped the following year.
The £1,000,000 bonus returned as the 'Chase Triple Crown' in 2015 when Jockey Club Racecourses offered it to any horse winning the Betfair Chase, the King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup. Cue Card won the first two legs of the 2015–16 bonus, but fell when in contention at Cheltenham.
Can Any Horse Emulate Kauto Star?
Well, yes, but it certainly won’t be easy, and the list of possibles could be quickly whittled down (sorry, Tommy) if the going comes up unseasonably quick at Haydock on Saturday, where there are currently nine entries, and therefore only nine horses eligible for the bonus.
Of those, only two are priced at shorter than 20/1 for the second leg of the series, namely the King George at Kempton, and if you fancy Politologue, Thistlecrack, Bristol de Mai, Thistlecrack, Clan Des Obeaux or any of the Gigginstown trio to win all three legs, you would be better off simply backing them to win the King George at the respective prices.
It’s possible that one of them will win at Kempton, but it’s a big stretch to think that any of them would improve enough to put up such a dominant performance that they would go to the top of the betting for the Gold Cup, especially with all of the runners essentially exposed at this point.
To illustrate the point, imagine you believed that Bristol de Mai was worth backing for the treble – he’s as short as 80/1 with Coral for the Jockey Club Triple Crown (but as big as 150/1), but is just 25/1 for the King George.
Is it possible that he could win the Kempton race so impressively that he would leapfrog the two dozen or so horses ahead of him in the Gold Cup market? The answer to that isn’t no, but it’s close to it.
The chances are that if Bristol de Mai did manage to win at Kempton, he’d still be between 10/1 and 20/1 for the big race in March, and while it’s hard to put an exact figure on such a scenario, it’s fairly clear that backing the horse for the two races individually, then reinvesting the winnings would provide a greater return (or a similar loss) than by backing him to win the Chase Triple Crown.
There’s an easier way of showing the folly of backing him for the treble, and that’s to check his price for the Gold Cup on the betting exchanges. What’s easier? Winning just the Gold Cup, or winning the Betfair Chase, the King George and the Gold Cup? Stupid question, obviously, but the exchange price for him to win in March is 200 (for small money), while you can only get 150/1 with William Hill for him to win all three. There’s the issue in a nutshell, and the same argument can be made for the other rags.
Best Bet In Chase Triple Crown Betting
So, if you’re considering a bet in the Chase Triple Crown market, we are quickly reduced to three options: the market leaders, and the quote of 'any horse' to achieve the feat, which includes either of those options as well as the more fanciful eventualities.
While there may be some money around for Might Bite, it’s extremely hard to understand the appeal of backing him at 12/1 (Ladbrokes) to win three Grade 1 races, when he’s 6/1 to win just one of them.
It needs to be remembered that Might Bite could easily miss out on either the Betfair and/or the King George. Anyone taking the 12/1 on offer is backing the horse not only to beat all-comers at Cheltenham in March, but to dance the correct dances on the way there, and avoid any setback which might prevent that eventuality.
There’s simply no margin for error, and even Might Bite’s biggest fans would be better backing the 'any horse' option at remarkably similar prices. At least the latter bet guarantees you’ll still have a live bet after leg one, and you only need to calculate the chance of any other winner to be 66/1 or shorter to want to be with 'Any' at 10/1 rather than Might Bite at 12/1.
On the other hand, it’s perfectly easy to argue that Native River, a year younger than Might Bite, and the winner when the pair met in the Gold Cup last March, is at least as likely as to win when the pair meet again.
Despite his campaign being built around the three races which make up the Jockey Club Triple Crown, he is 50/1 with Ladbrokes for the honours. The usual provisos apply here, and there are many ways in which the hat-trick can come unstuck, but unlike any other horse quoted, it’s very possible to imagine him winning on Saturday and usurping Might Bite’s place in the market for the next two legs.
There is a notion that he must have soft ground, but he was an excellent third in the Gold Cup as a seven-year-old on ground which was pretty lively, and the odds available do actually underestimate his class, as well as his programme.
He’s only half a point bigger for the Gold Cup than Might Bite, but four times his price for a treble which is definitely achievable, if littered, literally, with obstacles. If you must get involved in the Jockey Club Chase Triple Crown betting, there can be only one choice.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Bet £10 Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365
Bet £10, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
50% Deposit Bonus up to £100 Promo Code: FBWELS18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New UK customers only; 6x wager requirement with 90 day expiry; Only sports bets contribute to wagering; Min. 2 selections at 1.4 min odds per selection; Max £100 per bet. 18+. T&C's Apply. Please bet responsibly. begambleaware.org
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.