JLT Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

JLT Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 JLT NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

  • Aged six or seven
  • Won one of last three starts
  • Last ran in a Graded novice chase
  • Had won left-handed
  • Officially rated 144+

Get the latest JLT Novices' Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's JLT Novices' Chase?

Shortlisted via the JLT Novices' Chase trends last year were Invitation Only, Snow Falcon, Terrefort and Shattered Love - the latter two filling the first two places in the newest Cheltenham Festival novices' chase.

The Nicky Henderson-trained Terrefort made the JLT Novices' Chase shortlist by featuring in a ‘Key Race’ (see below), winning the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown and cantering to the top of the Cheltenham betting. Invitation Only might well have featured in a key race, but the Grade 2 at Leopardstown so popular as a trial, was discontinued with the creation of the Dublin Racing Festival.

He ticked a lot of other trends though, including all of the Top 5 listed above. Terrefort fell down on not winning left-handed, while Shattered Love scored on every trend across the 8-year lifespan of the Grade 1.


KEY JLT NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

8-year-trends (race first run 2011)

The last 8 winners…

  • Were aged six or seven
  • Were officially rated 144+
  • Won one of their last three starts
  • Had run between three and seven in the last 12 months
  • Had three to five starts that season
  • Had run in two to five novice chases
  • Had won on a left-handed course
  • Had three or more wins on a galloping track
  • Last ran in a Graded novice chase

Seven of the last eight winners…

  • Were Irish or French-bred
  • Last ran within 60 days
  • Finished in the first two last time out
  • Won, or were beaten no more than a short-head, last time out

The last 24 win and place positions

24/24 placed horses

  • Won one of their last three starts

23/24 placed horses

  • Were officially rated 143+
  • Had two or more wins on a galloping track
  • Last ran in a Graded race

22/24 placed horses

  • Were Irish or French-bred

KEY RACE TRENDS (8 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the JLT Novices' Chase)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Neville Hotels Novice Chase (G1)LeopardstownShattered Love (2018)None
Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (G1)SandownNoneTerrefort (2018), Top Notch (2017), Bristol De Mai (2016), Changing Times (2013)
Novice Chase (G2) (G3 until 2017) (discontinued)LeopardstownYorkhill (2017), Vautour (2015), Sir Des Champs (2012)None
Flogas Novice Chase (G1)LeopardstownNoneDisko (2017), Apache Stronghold (2015)
Irish Arkle (G1)LeopardstownBenefficient (2013), Noble Price (2011)None

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (8 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Willie Mullins 14 4 29 - 1
N Twiston-Davies 6 0 0 -6.00 3
Nicky Henderson 10 0 0 -10.00 3
Noel Meade 3 0 0 -3.00 2

WATCH: Racehour JLT Novices' Chase Preview


How Shattered Love Won 2018's JLT Novices' Chase

Cheltenham Festival glory was Shattered Love's a long way from home in the 2018 JLT Novices' Chase.

The daughter of Royal Ascot legend, Yeats, was travelling ominously well approaching three fences out, and once the field rounded the turn for home, she took the lead after the penultimate flight, going on to win by seven lengths under Jack Kennedy.


1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2018 JLT NOVICES' CHASE RESULT

  1. Shattered Love 4/1
  2. Terrefort 3/1 fav
  3. Benatar 10/1

Favourite Terrefort had led briefly three fences from home, but had no answer for the Gordon Elliott-trained winner, finishing five lengths clear of the third Benatar, from the Gary Moore yard.

The win for Shattered Love was a massive step up from her hurdling days, when she had finished a well-beaten 12/15 in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, and last in the Fairyhouse equivalent. It was also a first defeat for Terrefort over fences in Britain, the second going on to win over 3m1f at Aintree.


Cheltenham 2019 Thursday Schedule

13:30 - JLT Novices' Chase

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends

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Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

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