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The road to the 145th Kentucky Derby has been as inconsistent as horse racing betting fans have seen in many years. From the beginning we have seen strong performances but an inability to follow that up with any consistency.
We’ve have had just a few horses that have been steady. Steady will go a long way in the running of the Kentucky Derby this year, and with that in mind, here are five horses that could win the first leg of the Triple Crown. The horse below are listed with their morning-line odds.
Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds here:
Game Winner completed a 2-year-old campaign unbeaten from four starts and with a defining win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. I think course form is over done when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, but it certainly cannot hurt.
He has an outside draw, which we have seen in recent years is not a problem. Better to be clear of trouble than in the midst of it down on the inside. People have gotten down on him because he hasn’t won in two starts this year, but his speed figures are improving and it does not look like he’s maxed out yet.
Also if it comes up wet, he’s by stallion Candy Ride who produces 21% winners on an off track. Plus, he will be a good price given his ability.
His form looks eerily similar to Game Winner’s overall, actually literally identical. Unbeaten at 2 and two loses at the age 3, which were strong second-place finishes. His speed figures continue to improve but he hasn’t taken a massive jump at this point, which is a good thing suggesting he will not bounce.
The fact that he has off-track form is a good thing as well. It’s rare to see Baffert take blinkers off of a horse, but when he does he has a 35% success rate.
After Baffert won the Triple Crown last year, he was cornered by the mainstream press and asked, “Who’s the next big horse?” His response at the time: Roadster. He had to have an operation to clear up a breathing problem and since that recovery he has gone 2-for-2.
His Santa Anita Derby win was ultra-impressive as he ran down two very good horses, including Game Winner, rallying from almost last. Distance will not be an issue with his pedigree, by Quality Road, who has quickly established himself as one of the best stallions in the world.
He also can sit just off of a slow or quick early pace which isn’t easy for horses to adapt two. Often times they want to run too fast if the pace is slow or be too far out of it if the pace is hot. Roadster has it all, except Mike Smith, who has ridden him in all four starts of his career but sticks with the favorite Omaha Beach, understandably.
This colt is not the biggest horse you will find in this year’s Kentucky Derby and because of that his Hall of Fame trainer, Shug McGaughey, has at times had to be easy on this horse in his training. He was able to push on Code of Honor before the Fountain of Youth Stakes and it resulted in a victory over the likes of Vekoma, Blue Grass Stakes winner.
Shug has been able to push on this horse since his run in the Florida Derby and he has been open with that. It certainly looks like he will be at his best on Saturday along with John Velazquez in the saddle.
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