Love Island 2021 Betting Preview, Tips & Latest Odds
Series five of ITV2’s Love Island, which aired in the summer of 2019, received a series average of 5.61 million viewers.
That was an increase of 1.65 million on the previous year and quite amazing given the show began life in 2015 with an approximate 500,000 watching.
Such was its snowballing success, ITV2 executives excitedly scheduled two series of the show for 2020 with the first starting in January.
This Love Island winter version went ahead with an average of four million people watching each of the 36 episodes.
However, thanks to a global pandemic, the show has not been on our screens since the winter spin off concluded on February 23, 2020.
Quantifying those figures, just consider the peak viewing numbers of ITV’s 2021 Epsom Derby coverage was 1.3 million, with the average being just 730,000.
Unsurprisingly, betting sites are tuned-in to this show’s popularity and will be providing the Love Island viewership with plenty of markets on this summer’s show, series 7.
The ITV2 publicity machine has been in action since the end of May, releasing a 10sec teaser tailer followed by a full trailer in early June.
By June 18, the first contestant was announced but some not inconsiderable details, such as a venue, are still secret. All will be revealed on the opening night, June 28.
The first name given – clearly dropped in order to create red-top headlines – was Sharon Gaffka.
She was the winner of Miss International UK in 2018 which provokes memories of 2016 Love Island contestant Zara Holland, who was controversially stripped of her Miss Great Britain title after having sex with fellow Islander before the cameras.
On Monday, further contestants were announced via social media and bookies have been scrambling to put a price on the eventual male and female individual winners.
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What is the Best Love Island Betting Strategy?
Unquestionably there is a huge ‘Day One Advantage’. In the last series of the show, 32 contestants – aged between 20 and 28 – took part in this hybrid reality-gameshow. Of the dozen which were on our screens from day one, Finn Tapp became one part of the winning couple while Siânnise Fudge was the joint runner-up.
Similarly, a total of 36 individuals went through the Love Island villa doors in 2019 of which 12 were there from day one and that number included the joint-winner, Amber Gill.
In 2018, 38 contestants took part and only 11 of those were in the show from day one, yet that group included winners Dani Dyer and Jack Finchman (as well as joint runner-up Laura Anderson).
The 2017 show featured 43 episodes and 32 contestants. Once again, the joint winners – Amber Davies and Kem Cetinay – were in the show from day one, as was one of the joint runners-up.
Ditto that in 2016 (26 contestants, 37 episodes). 2015 was even stronger for day one arrivals, they filled five of the top six places including the female winner, Jess Hayes.
So we are not talking about the kind of advantage stall 1, 2 or 3 enjoys in a five-furlong sprint at Chester. If anything, the advantage is even greater. The likelihood of a day one contestant winning outright is overwhelming.
Betfair are on to this huge bias. When the list of eleven initial contestants was released they not only priced-up the chances of individuals winning, they also came up with a 4/1 quote about both members of the winning couple joining the show after day 1.
If you think the eventual winners will be coupled in the very first episode Betfair will give you 6/1 about that eventuality.
Love Island 2021 Betting Odds
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So who are this year’s contenders, what is their background and what’s their current pre-event prices? In the male category we have:
- Aaron Francis, 24, a luxury events host from London
- Hugo Hammond, 24, a PE teacher from Hampshire
- Jake Cornish, 24, a water engineer from Weston-super-Mare
- Brad McClelland, 26, a labourer from Northumberland
- Toby Aromolaran, 22, a semi-professional footballer from Essex
At 3/1 Hugo Hammond is the early favourite with TV specials bookmakers, with his back-story of being born with a clubfoot yet going on to represent his county at cricket, earning him popularity amongst the punters.
Toby Aromolaran, who says he has never been in a relationship, is 4/1 while the remaining trio can also be backed at 4/1 apiece although 5/1 is available about Jake Cornish in a few places.
Maybe, when the public begin to understand what the role of a ‘water engineer’ involves, he will attract some of the punter’s money.
The females confirmed for the opening show are:
- Shannon Singh, 22, a model from Fife
- Sharon Gaffka, 25, a civil servant from Oxford
- Liberty Poole, 21, a waitress and marketing student from Birmingham
- Kaz Kamwi, 26, a fashion blogger from Essex
- Chloe Burrows, 25, a financial services marketing executive from Bicester
- Faye Winter, 26, a lettings manager from Devon.
It is Shannon Singh, who carries the hopes of an entire country (almost – Scotland are trading at 4/5 to vote for independence when they have another referendum) and she is the 11/4 favourite to be the ultimate top-woman.
Kaz Mamwi, probably the highest profile of all contestants in the competition, follows at 3/1. Thereafter Sharon Gaffka can be backed at 4/1 while it is 6/1 apiece for Faye Winter and Liberty Poole and 8/1 on Chloe Burrows.
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