Manny Pacquiao vs Keith Thurman Betting Preview and Odds
There might not be a more intriguing matchup in 2019 than Saturday night’s FOX pay-per-view battle between Manny Pacquiao and Keith Thurman.
Pacquiao, 40, from General Santos City, Philippines, is one of the most accomplished fighters in boxing history. Thurman, 30, from Clearwater, Florida, is an undefeated world champion in the prime years of his life.
But what might normally be considered a crossroads fight with one fighter on the way up and the other headed the other direction because of age, isn’t quite so clear upon closer inspection.
Pacquiao-Thurman Betting Odds Flipped
Thurman opened the slight favorite back in May when the fight was announced. But the line flipped as top boxing bookmakers took in action. Pacquiao is now the slight favorite at 10/13 while Thurman is the 11/10 underdog.
The reason for the flip is probably equal parts Pacquiao’s tremendous popularity and Thurman’s recent lack of quality wins. The betting public most always backs the popular fighter, and that’s especially the case when it’s a mainstream sports star such a Pacquiao against a guy who could probably walk down any street in Florida without so much as a bother.
But Thurman’s lack of quality wins since 2017 is a real and present force on the boxing betting market. Because Pacquiao showed against Broner that his speed, power and reflexes, while diminished, are still very good, and that tremendously rare blend of speed and power which helped Pacquiao dominate Broner could help him beat Thurman, too.
Pacquiao-Thurman Betting Lines
Pacquiao on points is 8/5 at places such as BetHard and 888Sport in New Jersey and is the most likely method for a Pacquiao win. Pacquiao hits hard enough to keep opponents from launching their own offense but doesn’t really carry one-punch knockout power at 147.
Pacquiao by KO, TKO or DQ is 4/1. There’s some value there but only if Thurman finds himself down on the cards late and tries to go on the attack. Even then, it might be difficult for Pacquiao to get the stoppage. Thurman is a career welterweight, and Pacquiao never really cracked one of those without another factor playing into things such as age or injury.
But Thurman backers have decent reasons to go that way. Thurman is younger, naturally larger and a very accomplished world champion who really might be on the cusp of establishing himself as the chief rival to Spence and Crawford.
A victory over Pacquiao would go a long way toward that endeavor. Thurman on points is 7/4. It’s possible Thurman could keep Pacquaio at this end of his left jab right cross most of the night and let his footwork do the rest. Besides, if Thurman can effectively counterpunch Pacquiao as the shorter fighter comes forward, he might do enough damage to keep Pacquiao honest.
The other notable piece of information is that sometimes a fighter seemingly gets old overnight. Just because Pacquiao looked so sharp six months ago doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll look the same now. If that happens, backing Thurman by KO, TKO or DQ at 6/1 could score big. Lesser fighters than Thurman have knocked out other all-time great champions late in their careers.
Whatever happens on fight night, Pacquaio-Thurman is one of the biggest and most noteworthy boxing events of the year.
Pacquiao-Thurman Not a True Crossroads Fight
Even though he’s far past his best years as a professional prizefighter, Pacquiao’s dominating performances over Lucas Matthysse in July 2018 and Adrien Broner six months later prove he’s still elite.
And while Thurman is probably the most accomplished of the original Premier Boxing Champions welterweight group that included the likes of Errol Spence, Shawn Porter and Andre Berto, he’s usually not universally considered to be the clear best of the bunch, much less of the expanded group that now includes Pacquiao, multi-division champion Mikey Garcia and former 140-pound champion Danny Garcia.
Spence and Terence Crawford would need to duke it out to settle that, so at best Thurman right now is the third-best welterweight in the world, and that placement is mostly based on the work he did over two years ago.
That’s a long time in a fighting sport. It’s hard enough to stay sharp for decades at a time the way the established greats like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Pacquiao do. What’s much more common are fighters who come along and win world titles only to find themselves beaten to the punch by younger, better or simply more dedicated ones down the line.
Pacquiao's Last 6 Fights
|1-19-2019||Adrien Broner||Win (UD)|
|7-15-2018||Lucas Matthysse||Win (TKO Rd. 7)|
|7-2-2017||Jeff Horn||Loss (UD)|
|11-5-2016||Jessie Vargas||Win (UD)|
|4-9-16||Timothy Bradley||Win (UD)|
|5-2-2015||Floyd Mayweather Jr.||Loss (UD)|
Check Out: Betsafe Sportsbook For Free Bets and Welcome Bonus.
Is Keith Thurman an Elite Fighter?
What’s important about that is that Pacquiao is probably not good enough at this point to beat the pound-for-pound elite at 147 such as Spence or Crawford because he’s never really been a true welterweight. Sure, Pacquiao won world titles in eight different weight classes, from 112 to 154 pounds, but the majority of his career was spent between 122 and 140.
Even when the fighter unexpectedly but magnificently peaked between 2008 and 2010, what made those career-defining wins against Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto and Shane Mosley so spectacular was how so surprising they were. How could such a little fighter blast through Hall of Famers like that?
But that version of Pacquiao is long since gone. The current one can compete with top contenders but probably not against the very elite.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Bet £10 Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365
Bet £10, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
Bet £10, Get £10 + 50 Extra Spins18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New customer offer; Place first £10 bet on sports with 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spins credited after the qualifying bet has settled; Free Multiple Bet must contain 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spin stakes not returned; No wagering requirements on winnings; £200 max win; T&C’s apply; 18+
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.