Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 3rd, 2019

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KEY MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

• Won no more than 2 hurdles
• Placed or won over further than 2m4f
• First three last time out
• Irish or French bred
• Aged five or six

Did Trends Win The Last Martin Pipe at Cheltenham?

On trends, the 2019 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle shortlist included the winner, second and third, in a competitive 24-runner affair.

The Joseph O'Brien-trained Early Doors had gone on the shortlist in 2018, his only negative then being unproven stamina. Having finished third then and gone on to be second in a 3m Grade 1 on his last run before the 2019 Cheltenham Festival, he was again highlighted as one to respect in the Cheltenham betting.

Like all five trends picks, he had won a hurdle race, but no more than two, and had the right breeding, as well as the right age profile. He was also rated top, most winners of this race boasting ratings in excess of 138.

He went on to win as the second successive topweight to do so, with fellow trends picks Dallas Des Pictons and Defi Bleu in second and third. Defi Bleu was a classic trends fit, having won over 2m4f, and been placed in Graded company over further distances.

Dallas Des Pictons had also proven his stamina and lined up bang in-form. Both were trained by Gordon Elliott, who has a good record in the race, as does Willie Mullins, responsible for the fourth trends spot Getareason.

He ticked many of the boxes Defi Bleu did, but his jumping let him down and he beat few home in his handicap debut. Pym was the final horse on the trends shortlist, boasting a course second in Grade 2 company and a 2m5f win last time out. He finished 11th.

KEY MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

Two key notes that will help your Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle trends analysis are: there have only been 11 runnings of the race, and it is limited to horses rated 145 or lower - 140 before 2012.

That means the handicap is highly compressed with bottom-weight carrying only 8-10lbs less than topweight. In this scenario, topweights can do well. There can often be more than one, but the form of the best-finishing topweight reads: U120F670011

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Carried 11st 1lb or more
• Had won 1-4 times over hurdles
• Had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles - most won none
• Last ran between 20-77 days ago
• Were ridden by a jockey who had never won at the Cheltenham Festival before

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Carried 11st 3lb or more
• Had won no more than two hurdle races
• Had run no more than eight times over hurdles
• Had run at least once over 2m4f or further
• Had won or been placed over further than 2m4f - four won
• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Were Irish or French bred
• Were aged five or six

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Finished in the first three last time out - five winning
• Had run at least three times that season
• Were officially rated 137 or higher

The last seven winners…

• Were trained in Ireland, or by Paul Nicholls
• Had run in a Graded hurdle - three won Grade 3s.
• Had run in no more than 4 handicap hurdles - winning no more than 1

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

• Were aged no older than eight
• Finished in the first four in one of their last three starts

39/40 placed horses

• Had run up to three times in the last 90 days

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested before Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Early Doors won 2019's Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Overcoming trouble around the final bend, Early Doors found daylight approaching the last flight and went on to win the 2019 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle by a length and a quarter.

The six-year-old, a Grade 3 winner, had been third the previous year off a lighter weight, but this time arrived fresher and gamely became the race's third victorious topweight.

5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Result

1. Early Doors 5/1
2. Dallas Des Pictons 5/2f
3. Defi Bleu 14/1
4. Champagne Court 14/1

Jockey Jonjo O'Neill junior had tracked 5/2 favourite Dallas Des Pictons for much of the 2m4f test, that six-year-old representing the same owner, jockey and trainer that had won with topweight Blow By Blow a year earlier.

Dallas Des Pictons travelled sweetly for Donagh Meyler to lead around the final bend, Gordon Elliott-trained stablemate Defi Bleu in his wake, as he had been throughout, but when driven to go on up the hill after the last, he could not match Early Doors.

The Joseph O'Brien-trained winner galloped away, Dallas Des Pictons taking second, with Defi Bleu a distant third and Champagne Court plugging on best of the rest to be fourth.

Cheltenham 2019 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle